财税与公共管理学院知识库

改革开放以来，我国经济发展成果显著，但不可否认，投资、消费及出口这三大经济增长动力之间存在发展不均衡的问题，亟需依靠内部消费需求的动力推进我国经济发展。诸多理论研究证明，在影响消费支出的诸多因素中，收入是消费的决定性因素，而社会保障具有类收入性质。得益于多年的持续努力，我国城乡居民已经成功实现了养老保险、医疗保险和最低生活保障制度的全面覆盖。在社会保障体系日臻成熟的新阶段，社会保障支出成为了推动人力资本投资的重要手段和路径，而人力资本的积累能带动消费结构优化升级。基于此种现实背景，本研究聚焦社会保障水平对居民消费的影响，并考察人力资本在此过程中所扮演的角色，具有较强的现实指导意义。
为阐明社会保障水平对城乡居民消费支出的影响，本文立足于现有文献，选用2011年-2021年31个省（市、自治区）的面板数据，在充分吸收借鉴相关研究成果的前提下，重点关注城乡差异，构建固定效应模型，选取城乡居民总体消费支出及其细分类型作为被解释变量进行深入探讨。此外，利用中介效应模型，以人力资本为中介变量，对社会保障水平影响居民消费支出的路径进行分析。
本文结论有以下几点：（1）随着社会保障水平每提高1个单位，城镇居民消费性支出与农村居民消费性支出均显著增加。将城乡居民进行对比，可以发现，社会保障水平对农村居民消费性支出的促进作用要强于城镇居民。（2）社会保障水平的提升有利于优化居民消费结构，促进居民消费升级。将居民消费划分为具体消费类别，对于城镇居民而言，随着社会保障水平的提升，城镇居民边际消费倾向较高的是服务、医疗和交通通信等发展与享受型消费。对于农村居民，其消费倾向排序为服务>居住>交通通信>教育>医疗>衣着>食品，发展与享受型消费倾向大于生存型消费。（3）在对社会保障影响居民消费的路径分析时，发现存在“社会保障水平提升—人力资本水平上升-居民消费支出增加”的传导路径。基于上述研究结论，本文提出以下几点建议：（1）缩小社保城乡差距，提升制度公平性；（2）完善社会保障政策，促进人力资本积累；（3）缩小城乡收入差距，推进城乡协调发展；（4）开发老年消费市场，加快发展老年产业。

Since the reform and opening up, China's economic development has achieved remarkable results, but it is undeniable that there is an imbalance in the development of the three major drivers of economic growth, namely, investment, consumption and export, and there is an urgent need to rely on the power of internal consumption demand to promote China's economic development. Many theoretical studies have proved that among the many factors affecting consumption expenditure, income is the determining factor for consumption, and social security has an income-like nature. Thanks to years of sustained efforts, China's urban and rural residents have successfully realized comprehensive coverage of pension insurance, medical insurance and minimum living standard security systems. In the new stage of maturing social security system, social security expenditure has become an important means and path to promote the investment of human capital, and the accumulation of human capital can lead to the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure. Based on this background, this study focuses on the impact of social security level on residents' consumption and examines the role of human capital in this process, which is of strong practical significance.
In order to clarify the impact of social security level on urban and rural residents' consumption expenditures, this paper, based on the existing literature, selects the panel data of 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) for the period of 2011-2021, and focuses on the urban-rural differences, constructs a fixed-effect model, and selects the overall consumption expenditures of urban and rural residents and its subdivided types as the explanatory variables for further exploration on the premise of absorbing and learning from the relevant research results. In addition, the path of social security level affecting residents' consumption expenditure is analyzed by using the mediation effect model, with human capital as the mediating variable.