财税与公共管理学院知识库

随着我国经济进入了新的发展阶段，地方政府财政支出不断扩张，导致地方政府债务水平持续攀升，进而地方政府债务问题也已经引起国内各领域的广泛关注。与此同时，党的二十大报告强调：“高质量发展是全面建设社会主义现代化国家的首要任务”。在此背景下，深入研究中国地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的实际影响也越来越重要，这不仅有助于厘清地方政府债务的合理边界，优化其经济效应，更能为促进经济高质量发展提供重要的政策参考。

为了探究地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的影响，本文首先对地方政府债务、经济高质量发展的概念进行了定义，并根据相关理论分析做出假设。之后，本文参考现有文献的测度方法对地方政府债务以及经济高质量发展进行了测算，并对我国目前的地方政府债务以及经济高质量现状进行了分析。在此基础上，本文选取2009-2022年间30个省份、直辖市、自治区的面板数据，采用基础回归模型以及门槛模型进行研究，并运用不同方法检验了实证结果的稳健性。最后，就不同地区和不同阶段的地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的影响是否存在差异性做了进一步研究。研究发现：（1）地方政府债务能够对经济高质量发展起到促进作用。（2）不同区域地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的影响不同。其中，东部地区的影响系数最低，中部地区的影响系数最高。（3）地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的影响存在阶段异质性。新预算法实施后，地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的影响显著为正，但新预算法实施前结果不显著。（4）地方政府债务与经济高质量发展存在非线性关系。当地方债务率大于门槛值时，地方政府债务对经济高质量发展的促进效应降低了。

 根据研究结论，提出如下政策建议：（1）控制债务规模，在保持债务规模适度的前提下，加强顶层设计。（2）地政府在债务治理上应因时制宜、因地制宜，实施差异化的债务管理，确保地方经济的可持续发展。（3）各地政府应积极转变以往的粗放型发展模式，同时强化债务监管机制，确保地方政府债务的有效管理。（4）坚持创新驱动战略，在发挥市场机制作用的同时合理进行政府干预，优化地方政府债务的投资去向。

As China's economy enters a new stage of development, local government financial expenditure have steadily increased, resulting in a continuous rise in local government debt levels. This trend has garnered significant attention across various sectors within the country.At the same time, the report of the 20th National Congress of the Party emphasized that "high-quality development is the foremost task in the comprehensive construction of a modern socialist country."In this context, it becomes increasingly imperative to conduct in-depth research on the influence of local government debt scale on high-quality economic development. This not only aids in delineating the appropriate scope of local government debt and optimizing its economic impact, but also furnishes significant policy guidance for advancing high-quality economic development.

To investigate the influence of local government debt scale on high-quality economic development, this paper first defines the concepts of local government debt and high-quality economic development and formulates hypotheses based on relevant theories. It then measures local government debt and high-quality economic development using established methods from existing literature and analyzes the current status of both in China. Building on this foundation, the study employs panel data from 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions spanning 2009 to 2022. Basic regression models and threshold models are utilized to examine the influence of local government debt scale on high-quality economic development. Additionally, different methods are applied to test the robustness of the empirical results. Finally, the study explores whether there are regional and stage-specific differences in the impact of local government debt on high-quality economic development. The empirical findings indicate: (1) Local government debt can promote high-quality economic development. (2) The impact exhibits regional heterogeneity. The impact coefficient is the lowest in the eastern region and the highest in the central region. (3) The impact also shows stage heterogeneity; after the implementation of the new Budget Law, the effect becomes significantly positive, whereas it was not significant before. (4) There exists a non-linear relationship between local government debt and high-quality economic development. When the local debt ratio exceeds a certain threshold, the promoting effect diminishes.

Based on these conclusions, and put forward the following policy suggestions:(1) Control the scale of debt while maintaining a moderate level and strengthening top-level design. (2) Local governments should adopt differentiated debt management strategies tailored to specific circumstances and time to ensure sustainable local economic development. (3) Local governments should actively transition from extensive development models to more efficient ones and strengthen debt supervision mechanisms to ensure effective management of local government debt. (4) Adhere to an innovation-driven strategy, balancing market mechanisms with rational government intervention, and optimizing the allocation of local government debt investments.