财税与公共管理学院知识库

2020年9月，中国政府在第75届联合国代表大会上正式提出2030年实现“碳达峰”、2060年实现“碳中和”的“双碳”目标。“碳”作为全球气候变化和治理的关键要素之一，已经引起学界乃至政界的共同和广泛关注。已有研究表明，人类活动产生的碳排放是全球气候变暖的主要原因，而作为全球80亿人生存发展的基础性产业，农业是全球碳排放的重要来源之一。据统计，农业部门碳排放量占全球碳排放总量的比重已超13%，具体到我国，农业部门碳排放量占全国总碳排放的比重已超15%。农业碳减排问题已然成为学界的研究热点。

财政支农作为我国政府调节农业生产的主要手段，对促进农业产业结构转型、推动绿色新型农业发展有较强的导向作用，环境友好型农业的规划绕不开财政支农；另一方面，在农村空心化、老龄化不断加剧的背景下，农业生产要素禀赋结构跟随农业经营规模的变化而变化的趋势愈发明显。在此基础上，开展财政支农与农业经营规模对农业碳排放的影响及空间效应，探索农业发展的低碳路径，对我国“双碳”目标的实现的影响具有重要的现实意义。

文章分六大部分进行讨论。首先是绪论。介绍文章的研究背景与意义、研究内容与方法、研究思路与框架。其次是文献综述、概念界定与理论基础。基于主要研究对象，综合阐述目前国内外在该方向的研究现状及发展趋势，随后在此基础上对财政支农、农业经营规模及农业碳排放进行概念界定，并介绍其相关理论基础。第三部分是对农业碳排放的测算。第四部分，财政支农、农业经营规模影响农业碳排放的理论机制分析并在此基础上提出假设。第五部分是文章的核心部分，将进行实证分析来验证前文的假设。第六部分，结论与建议。总结概括出前文的研究结论，并根据结论给出相应的建议。

文章的主要结论有：（1）我国各地区农业碳排放呈现先上升、后减少的倒“U”型趋势，各地区均取得了一定的农业碳减排成效，但不同地区的减碳差异性较大；（2）财政支农政策存在空间自相关性，对其他地区的农业碳排放存在显著的负向空间溢出效应；（3）在不同水平的农业经营规模区间中，财政支农对农业碳排放的影响存在单一门槛效应。（4）农业经营规模存在空间自相关性，对其他地区的农业碳排放存在显著的正向空间溢出效应。

In September 2020,the Chinese government formally proposed the"dual carbon"goal of achieving"carbon peak"by 2030 and"carbon neutrality"by 2060 at the 75th United Nations General Assembly."Carbon"Carbon,as one of the key elements of global climate change and governance,has attracted the common and widespread attention of the academic and even political sectors.It has been shown that carbon emissions from human activities are the main cause of global warming,and as a basic industry for the survival and development of 8 billion people in the world,agriculture is one of the important sources of global carbon emissions.According to statistics,carbon emissions from the agricultural sector accounted for more than 13%of the total global carbon emissions,and specifically in China,carbon emissions from the agricultural sector accounted for more than 15%of the country's total carbon emissions.The issue of agricultural carbon emission reduction has become a research hotspot in the academic world.

Financial support for agriculture,as the main means for our government to regulate agricultural production,has a strong guiding role in promoting the transformation of the agricultural industrial structure and promoting the development of new green agriculture,and the planning of environmentally friendly agriculture cannot bypass the financial support for agriculture;on the other hand,in the context of rural hollowing out and aging,the structure of the endowment of agricultural factors of production follows the changes in the scale of agricultural operations and the trend of change is more and more obvious.On this basis,it is of great practical significance to investigate the influence and spatial effect of financial support to agriculture and the scale of agricultural operation on agricultural carbon emission,and to explore the low-carbon path of agricultural development,which is of great practical significance to the realization of China's"double-carbon"goal.

The article is divided into five main parts for discussion.The first part is the introduction.It introduces the research background and significance,research content and methodology,and research ideas and framework.Second is the literature review,concept definition and theoretical foundation.Based on the main research object,it comprehensively describes the current research status and development trend in this direction at home and abroad,and then defines the concepts of financial support for agriculture,agricultural scale of operation and agricultural carbon emission on this basis and introduces its relevant theoretical basis.The third part is the measurement of agricultural carbon emissions.In the fourth part,the theoretical mechanisms of financial support to agriculture and agricultural business scale affecting agricultural carbon emissions are analyzed and hypotheses are put forward on this basis.The fifth part is the core part of the article,and empirical analysis will be conducted to verify the hypotheses of the previous article.Part VI,Conclusion and Recommendation.Summarize and summarize the research conclusions of the previous article and give corresponding recommendations according to the conclusions.

The main conclusions of the article are:(1)China's agricultural carbon emissions in all regions of the inverted"U"trend of the first rise,followed by a decrease in the various regions have achieved a certain degree of agricultural carbon emission reduction,but the carbon reduction in different regions of the greater variability;(2)the existence of spatial autocorrelation of financial support policies for agriculture,there is a significant negative spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions in other regions;(3)the financial support policies for agriculture,there are significant spatial spillover effects on agricultural carbon emissions.Negative spatial spillover effect;(3)In different levels of agricultural business scale intervals,there is a single threshold effect of financial support for agriculture on agricultural carbon emissions.(4)There is spatial autocorrelation in the scale of agricultural operation,and there is a significant positive spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions in other regions.