国际经济与贸易学院知识库

“互联网+”时代为中国跨境电商赋予了新机遇，尤其是在外贸领域中，出 口跨境电商堪称“黑马”，已然成为了促进中国出口快速增长的中坚力量。其中， 物流在跨境电商交易中起到连接卖家与买家的桥梁作用，对于跨境电商的成功运 营至关重要。2020年《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）的顺利签定，加 强了各国之间的交流与合作，RCEP成员国成为中国跨境电商出口的潜在市场。 然而，RCEP成员国物流发展水平参差不齐，一些国家存在基础设施不足、交通 运输不便等问题，对中国跨境电商出口产生负面效应。为此，本文选取RCEP成 员国作为主要研究范围，进行深入的定性与定量分析，探讨各国物流绩效对中国 跨境电商出口潜力的影响，以期找出物流发展的薄弱环节，为提高区域内物流绩 效、进一步促进中国与RCEP成员国之间跨境电商发展提供合理的对策建议。 本文首先就国内外研究物流绩效与跨境电商领域的最新成果展开综述。接下 来，依据物流成本理论、区域经济理论以及价值链理论，深入剖析物流绩效对跨 境电商出口造成的实际影响及内在原理并提出六个研究假设；随后，对中国跨境 电商出口现状进行概述，重点分析中国对RCEP各国的跨境电商出口现状并指出 现存的问题；接下来对RCEP成员国2007-2022年期间的物流绩效综合指数及分 项指标的现状进行分析，在此基础上初步研判RCEP成员国物流绩效与跨境电商 出口之间的相关性；基于世界银行、国家统计局、海关总署等官方渠道及iiMedia Research（艾媒咨询）等第三方机构获取的数据，选取拓展的贸易引力模型，对 RCEP各国物流绩效与中国跨境电商出口关系进行实证研究。进而，根据世界银 行设定的标准，对RCEP成员国进行中高收入与中低收入两个经济发展层次划分， 分别进行国别异质性分析。 研究结果表明：（1）RCEP成员国是中国重要的跨境电商出口市场，其中 日本、韩国及越南是中国最大的跨境电商合作伙伴，东盟十国市场潜力巨大；（2） RCEP成员国的物流绩效普遍优于全球均值，然而，该区域内成员国物流发展水 平参差不齐；（3）RCEP成员国货物运输及时性指标得分最高，整体在3.5分的 水平上波动，物流基础设施的质量与清关程序的效率指标得分较低，物流问题制 约国家发展；（4）RCEP成员国物流绩效推动了中国跨境电商出口的增长，各国物流绩效LPI及六个分项指标的优化，皆为中国跨境电商出口创造了深远的积 极影响；（5）中高收入组与中低收入组成员国物流绩效对中国跨境电商出口的 影响力不容忽视，尤其是以中高收入组成员国为甚，六个分项指标对其产生的影 响存在异质性。 基于前述研究成果及RCEP签订后对于区域经济合作的预期，本文从打造区 域物流体系、着力薄弱环节提升物流水平与加强国际物流合作等方面提出富有战 略性的对策建议，旨在从物流绩效视角为推动中国跨境电商出口发展探索新道路。

The ' Internet + ' era has given new opportunities to China 's cross-border e-commerce. Especially in the field of foreign trade, export cross-border e-commerce can be called a ' dark horse ' and has become the backbone of promoting the rapid growth of China 's exports. Among them, logistics plays a bridge role between sellers and buyers in cross-border e-commerce transactions, which is very important for the successful operation of cross-border e-commerce. The successful signing of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement ( RCEP ) in 2020 has strengthened exchanges and cooperation among countries, and RCEP member countries have become potential markets for China 's cross-border e-commerce exports. However, the level of logistics development in RCEP member countries is uneven. Some countries have problems such as insufficient infrastructure and inconvenient transportation, which have a negative effect on China 's cross-border e-commerce exports. Therefore, this paper selects RCEP member countries as the main research scope, conducts in-depth qualitative and quantitative analysis, and discusses the impact of logistics performance of various countries on China 's cross-border e-commerce export potential, in order to find out the weak links of logistics development, and provide reasonable countermeasures and suggestions for improving regional logistics performance and further promoting the development of cross-border e-commerce between China and RCEP member countries. This paper first reviews the latest achievements in the field of logistics performance and cross-border e-commerce at home and abroad. Next, according to the logistics cost theory, regional economic theory and value chain theory, the actual impact and internal principle of logistics performance on cross-border e-commerce export are deeply analyzed,and puts forward six research hypotheses. Then, it summarizes the current situation of China 's cross-border e-commerce export, focusing on the analysis of the current situation of China 's cross-border e-commerce export to RCEP countries and pointing out the existing problems. Next, the status quo of the comprehensive index and sub-indicators of logistics performance of RCEP member countries from 2007 to 2022 is analyzed. On this basis, the correlation between logistics performance of RCEP member countries and cross-border e-commerce exports is preliminarily judged. Based on the data obtained from official channels such as the World Bank, the National Bureau of Statistics, the General Administration of Customs and third-party institutions such as iiMedia Research, this paper selects the extended trade gravity model to conduct an empirical study on the relationship between the logistics performance of RCEP countries and China 's cross-border e-commerce export. Furthermore, according to the criteria set by the World Bank, the RCEP member countries are divided into two economic development levels of middle and high income and middle and low income, and the country heterogeneity analysis is carried out respectively. The research results show that : (1) RCEP member countries are China 's important cross-border e-commerce export markets, among which Japan, South Korea and Vietnam are China 's largest cross-border e-commerce partners, and the market potential of the ten ASEAN countries is huge. (2) The logistics performance of RCEP member countries is generally better than the global average. However, the level of logistics development of member countries in the region is uneven. (3) The RCEP member countries have the highest score in the timeliness index of cargo transportation, and the overall fluctuation is at the level of 3.5 points. The quality of logistics infrastructure and the efficiency index of customs clearance procedures are low, and logistics problems restrict the development of the country. (4) The logistics performance of RCEP member countries has promoted the growth of China 's cross-border e-commerce exports. The optimization of LPI and six sub-indicators of logistics performance in various countries has created a far-reaching positive impact on China 's cross-border e-commerce exports. (5) The influence of the logistics performance of the middle and high income group and the middle and low income group on China 's cross-border e-commerce exports cannot be ignored, especially in the middle and high income group, and the influence of the six sub-indicators on it is heterogeneous. Based on the above research results and the expectation of regional economic cooperation after the signing of RCEP, this paper puts forward strategic countermeasures and suggestions from the aspects of building a regional logistics system, focusing on weak links, improving logistics level and strengthening international logistics cooperation, aiming to explore a new way to promote the development of China 's cross-border e-commerce export from the perspective of logistics performance.