习近平总书记在党的二十大报告中指出“中国式现代化是人规模巨大的现代化”。把握好人口发展问题是未来一项艰巨的任务，促进人口可持续发展，这对于推进中国式现代化以及实现中华民族伟大复兴具有深远意义。对于人口的发展，要对人口数量和人口质量进行整体的把握，在不同阶段采取怎样的手段是至关重要的。

本文在现有的理论研究的基础上，选用中国30个省、直辖市、自治区2010-2020年近11年的面板数据，构建了一个促进人口可持续发展的指标体系，采用熵权法进行数据分析，计算各指标在人口发展的权重，并对各地区进行综合评价数值分析。通过对数据的分析发现：人口受教育水平、财政科技支出的投入在一定程度上促进人口的可持续发展，此外，生育保险的参保与待遇享受、地区经济发展水平、人均可支配收入水平都对人口发展具有较高的影响。而人口死亡率、养老保险、性别比等因素对人口可持续发展影响不大，主要是老龄化社会的加剧而使得其对人口的发展起阻碍作用。从区域上来看，西部地区、东北地区的人口发展潜力不足，东部地区的人口发展潜力较大，在制定人口发展的财政政策时应重点向落后地区、西部地区等倾斜。

在制定促进人口发展的财政政策时，要注重促进教育水平的提高，不仅要提高教育规模和结构的改善，还要注意充分利用财政补贴、税收优惠等手段降低家庭的教育成本，使更多的人能够享受到教育带来的好处，促进人口素质的提高。此外，促进技术进步、完善社会保障体系与公共服务均等化也能在一定程度上促进社会进步，推动人口的高质量发展。但是本文在对现状进行分析时发现，人口数量的适度增长当前在中国也是必须的。因此，要充分利用财政支出、税收优惠的手段，并发挥其乘数效应，刺激人生育水平的提高，为人口的可持续发展打下坚实的基础。

A good grasp of population development is an arduous task in the future, and promoting sustainable population development is of far-reaching significance to promoting Chinese-style modernization and realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. For the development of population, to grasp the quantity and quality of population as a whole, how to take measures in different stages is crucial.

On the basis of existing theoretical research, this paper selects panel data of 30 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China from 2010 to 2020 for nearly 11 years to construct an index system for promoting sustainable population development. Entropy weight method is adopted for data analysis, the weight of each index in population development is calculated, and comprehensive evaluation numerical analysis is carried out for each region. Through the analysis of the data, it is found that the education level of the population and the input of financial expenditure on science and technology promote the sustainable development of the population to a certain extent. In addition, the participation and treatment of maternity insurance, the level of regional economic development, the level of per capital disposable income all have a high impact on the population development. However, the population mortality rate, pension insurance, sex ratio and other factors have little impact on the sustainable development of population. The main reason is that the aging society intensifies, which makes it hinder the development of population. From the perspective of region, the population development potential of the western region and the northeast region is insufficient, while the population development potential of the eastern region is relatively large. In formulating the fiscal policy of population development, we should focus on the backward areas and the western region.

In formulating fiscal policies to promote population development, attention should be paid to improving the level of education. It is not only necessary to improve the scale and structure of education, but also to make full use of fiscal subsidies, tax incentives and other means to reduce the cost of education for families, so that more people can enjoy the benefits of education.