财税与公共管理学院知识库

地方政府债务作为政府承担事权与支出责任的重要渠道，受经济下行、减税减费、疫情冲击等影响债务余额近几年加速上升，使地方政府性债务风险成为防范化解区域性金融风险的重点，并成为地方政府的关注的新热点。

山东省是我国东部大省，地区GDP与财政收入长期处于全国前例，自2015年新《预算法》颁布实施以来，山东省积极发债融资，目前债务率为408.19%处于全国中等水平，财政自给率58.56%是全国9个高于50%的地区之一，但是截止到2022年债务存量为23588亿元，处于全国第二，其省会城市济南市的专项债占比超过91%，需要警惕债务发生风险，因此研究山东省地方政府债务有重要的现实意义。

本文在梳理有关地方政府债务研究成果的基础上，首先从总量、结构、风险三个方面初步分析山东省地方政府债务现状，其次从经济状况、财政运行和负债能力三大维度构建债务风险评价指标体系，并利用熵值法赋予债务风险权重定量分析山东省地方政府债务风险，通过纵向时序分析、横向空间分析和全局性分析得到以下结论：

（1）山东省2019——2021年债务风险目前尚可控制，但要警惕债务规模迅速上升的隐患。从16市债务风险的时序变化来看，菏泽、滨州、聊城的综合债务风险较高，济南和青岛的综合债务风险较低。

（2）从16市2021年债务风险空间变化状况来看，淄博的综合债务风险最低，聊城的综合债务风险最高。

（3）从山东省及其16市债务风险全局性来看，山东省负债能力不高加剧了债务风险发生的可能性，但其雄厚的经济基础抵消了潜在的债务风险。根据16市债务风险表现情况可将其分为负债能力主导型、财政运行主导型、财政负债双向型、经济负债双向型和综合导向型。

然后根据上述山东省地方政府债务现状与债务风险，发现山东省存在政府债务偿还高度以来土地财政、专项债务资金利用率不高、政府债务风险金融化、“隐性担保”导致市县债务评级信息模糊化四个问题并进行原因分析；最后为优化山东省地方政府债务治理水平，本文从中央政府与山东省政府两个层面提出建议。

The Ministry of Finance has clearly promoted the reform of the financial system below the provincial level in accordance with the principle of "county-level mainstay, city-level assistance, provincial-level back-up, and central incentives", and local government debt, as an important channel for the government to assume the power and expenditure responsibility, has accelerated the rise of debt balances in recent years due to the economic downturn, tax and fee reductions, and the impact of the epidemic, making local government debt risks the focus of preventing and resolving regional financial risks, and becoming a new hot spot for local governments.

Since the promulgation and implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015, Shandong Province has actively issued bonds for financing, the current debt ratio is 408.19% in the middle level of the country, and the financial self-sufficiency rate of 58.56% is one of the 9 regions above 50% in the country, but as of 2022, the debt stock is 2,358.8 billion yuan, ranking second in the country, and its provincial capital Jinan City has a special debt ratio of more than 91%. It is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of debt occurrence, so it is of great practical significance to study the local government debt in Shandong Province. Based on the research results on local government debt, this paper first analyzes the current situation of local government debt in Shandong Province from three aspects: total amount, structure and risk, and secondly constructs a debt risk evaluation index system from the three dimensions of economic situation, fiscal operation and debt capacity, and quantitatively analyzes the debt risk in Shandong Province by using the entropy value method to give debt risk weight, and obtains the following conclusions through vertical time series analysis, horizontal spatial analysis and global analysis:

(1) The debt risk of Shandong Province in 2019-2021 is still controllable, but it is necessary to be wary of the hidden danger of rapid rise in debt scale. From the perspective of the timing changes of debt risk in the 16 cities, the comprehensive debt risk of Heze, Binzhou and Liaocheng is higher, and the comprehensive debt risk of Jinan and Qingdao is low.

(2) From the perspective of the spatial changes of debt risk in 16 cities in 2021, Zibo has the lowest comprehensive debt risk and Liaocheng has the highest comprehensive debt risk.

(3) From the overall perspective of debt risk in Shandong Province and its 16 cities, the low debt capacity of Shandong Province aggravates the possibility of debt risk, but its strong economic foundation offsets the potential debt risk. According to the debt risk performance of the 16 cities, they can be divided into debt capacity-oriented, fiscal operation-oriented, fiscal debt two-way, economic debt two-way and comprehensive-oriented.

Then according to the above current situation and debt risk of local government debt in Shandong Province, it is found that there are four problems in Shandong Province: land finance, low utilization rate of special debt funds, financialization of government debt risk, and "hidden guarantee" that distorts the debt information at the city and county level since the height of government debt repayment, and analyzes the causes. Finally, in order to optimize the level of local government debt governance in Shandong Province, this paper makes suggestions from the two levels of the central government and the Shandong provincial government.