财税与公共管理学院知识库

在逆全球化趋势不断加剧、国际贸易规则面临重构的世界经济复杂形势下，习近平总书记提出了我国“以国内循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促进”的新发展格局。自由贸易区的高质量发展便是国内国际双循环相互促进的“啮合点”。《中国-韩国自由贸易协定》于2015年底开始生效，2017年双方开启了第二阶段的谈判。当前中韩FTA进行了8次关税削减，自贸协定的作用已初步显现。2021年中韩双边贸易额达到3623.5亿美元，我国是韩国第一大贸易伙伴，韩国是我国第三大贸易伙伴。根据2022年1月26日中韩自贸协定第四联合委员会对协定实施效果进行的评估，中韩FTA促进了双边贸易和投资往来，对两国抗击新冠疫情、维持产业链供应稳定、促进各自国内经济发展发挥了重要作用。然而在不断增加的贸易额背后，也存在关税减让模式不够合理、双边贸易结构发展不平衡等问题，我国对外出口贸易形势仍亟待优化。

本文首先从关税减让、区域经济一体化及出口增长三元边际的理论支撑入手，对中韩贸易发展进程及双边贸易结构进行了梳理，并对中韩自贸协定的谈判签订过程及关税减让安排进行了分析，发现中韩FTA中关税减让涉及货物种类较广，但关税减让的过渡期较长、双方对自身敏感产业的保护力度很强，中韩两国距离完全消除贸易壁垒还有很长的路要走。其次，将1992-2020年我国对韩HS-6位产品层面出口数据进行三元分解，测算每年的扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际，从而发现在中韩双方建交后飞速增长的贸易发展中，我国对韩国出口的产品种类不断丰富、数量高速增加而质量却发展停滞，我国对韩出口贸易的增长主要依靠数量边际的提高。再次，处理韩国自我国及世界进口的产品所征收的AHS关税作影响因子，并对选取的变量进行合理的解释，通过构建多元回归模型，发现关税减让会使得我国对韩国出口产品扩展边际和数量边际增大，而并未对出口产品的价格边际产生明显影响。最后，提出我国应当积极实施FTA战略、设置更科学的关税减让模式、在开放国内市场的同时积极吸收国际经验、加快产业结构调整以应对国际市场竞争的建议，以期对促进我国对外贸易的发展、改善我国出口贸易形势有所裨益。

In the complex situation of the world economy, where the trend of anti-globalization continues to intensify and international trade rules are facing reconstruction, General Secretary Xi Jinping proposed a new development pattern of "domestic circulation as the main body, and domestic and international double circulation promoting each other". The high quality development of the free trade area is the "meshing point" that the domestic and international double circulation promotes each other. The China-Korea Free Trade Agreement came into force at the end of 2015, and the two sides launched the second phase of negotiations in 2017. At present, China-Korea FTA has carried out 8 tariff cuts, and the effect of free trade agreement has initially appeared. In 2021, bilateral trade volume between China and Korea reached 362.35 billion US dollars. China is Korea's the largest trading partner, and Korea is China's the third largest trading partner. According to the evaluation of the implementation effect of the Agreement conducted by the Fourth Joint Committee of the China-Korea FTA on January 26, 2022, the China-Korea FTA has promoted bilateral trade and investment exchanges and played an important role in the two countries' fight against COVID-19, maintaining the stability of industrial chain supply and promoting their respective domestic economic development. However, behind the increasing trade volume, there are also some problems such as unreasonable tariff reduction mode and unbalanced development of bilateral trade structure, which still need to be optimized.

This article first from the tariff concession, regional economic integration and the theory support of three yuan marginal export growth, the development process of China and Korea trade and generalizes the structure of bilateral trade, and on the processes of both China-Korea FTA signed and tariff concession arrangement was analyzed, and found that China-Korea FTA tariff concession involves the kind of broad, However, there is still a long way to go for China and Korea to completely eliminate trade barriers as the transition period of tariff reduction is long and both sides have strong protection for their sensitive industries. Secondly, the 1992-2020 China's exports to Korea HS-six product level data for the ternary decomposition, measure every year extension of marginal price is marginal, and number of marginal, thus found in both China and South Korea after the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and the rapid growth of trade development, China's exports to South Korea a enrich the variety of products, quantity, high-speed increase and the quality is stagnation, The growth of our export trade to Korea mainly depends on the improvement of quantity margin. Again, deal with South Korea since our country and the world AHS duties levied imports the impact factor, and the selection of variables are reasonable explanation, by building a multivariate regression model, found that the tariff concession will make China's exports to South Korea product extension marginal quantity and marginal increase, and did not significantly influence on export price of the product is marginal. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions that China should actively implement FTA strategy, set up more scientific tariff reduction mode, actively absorb international experience while opening domestic market, and accelerate industrial structure adjustment to cope with international market competition, in order to promote the development of China's foreign trade and improve the situation of China's export trade.