财税与公共管理学院知识库

税收流失作为世界各国（地区）普遍存在的一种经济现象，会导致政府财政收入的减少和影响市场经济活动的正常运行。为能更好地服务市场主体发展，2021年3月中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发的《关于进一步深化税收征管改革的意见》提出要充分发挥税收大数据作用，依法严厉打击涉税违法犯罪行为；2022年《政府工作报告》也提出要完善税收征管制度，依法打击偷税漏税骗税，这些都充分体现出治理税收流失问题对推进国家税收治理体系和治理能力现代化具有长远的意义和影响。而且甘肃省长期以来面临着财政收不抵支的困境，理论和实践表明，较高的税收流失规模不仅会进一步加大甘肃省地方财政的压力，还不利于改善城乡居民收入差距，影响资源配置效率。因此，治理甘肃省税收流失问题是缓解地区财政收支矛盾，提高地区经济高质量发展的重点内容。

首先，本文从税收流失的起源和发展、测算方法以及其治理路径三方面入手，梳理了有关税收流失的国内外研究文献，基于税费负担理论、信息不对称理论、纳税遵从理论和合作博弈理论，聚焦分析甘肃省隐性经济税收流失问题产生的原因。其次，运用2010-2020年甘肃省14个地州市的市级面板数据，采用MIMIC模型和隐性经济测算法，对甘肃省各地区税收流失规模进行了测算。从测算结果来看，在2010-2020年间，甘肃省全省税收流失绝对规模的波动幅度较小，基本保持在1.55-2.04亿元，其税收流失率整体呈下降趋势，介于7.32%-18.46%之间；从地区层面来看，陇东南地区的税收流失现象相对较为严重，而河西地区的税收流失状况相对较为轻微。同时，研究结果还发现税收负担、政府管制、失业率和劳动力参与率是影响税收流失规模的重要因素。再次，进一步分析了甘肃省税收流失的影响效应，发现无论是对甘肃省财政收入，还是对城乡居民收入差距和资源合理配置，都产生了较为严重的负面效应。最后，建议甘肃省应遵循“创新征管、综合治理、多措并举”的基本思路，采取适度降低税收负担水平、实施合理政府管制措施、推动智能税务建设、加强税源监控等举措，多部门协同治理税收流失问题。

As a common economic phenomenon all over the world, tax evasion will lead to the reduction of government revenue and affect the normal operation of market economic activities. In order to better serve the development of market players, the opinions on further deepening the reform of tax collection and management issued by the general office of the CPC Central Committee and the general office of the State Council in March 2021 proposed to give full play to the role of tax big data and severely crack down on tax related violations and crimes according to law; The 2022 government work report also proposes to improve the tax collection and management system and crack down on tax evasion and tax fraud according to law, which fully reflects the long-term significance and impact of controlling tax evasion on promoting the modernization of the National Tax Governance System and governance capacity. Moreover, Gansu Province has been facing the dilemma of financial income not exceeding expenditure for a long time. Theory and practice show that a higher scale of tax evasion will not only further increase the pressure on local finance in Gansu Province, but also be detrimental to improving the income gap between urban and rural residents and affecting the efficiency of resource allocation. Therefore, the governance of tax evasion in Gansu Province is the key content to alleviate the contradiction between regional fiscal revenue and expenditure and improve the high-quality development of regional economy.

Firstly, starting with the origin and development of tax evasion, measurement methods and its governance path, this paper combs the research literature on tax evasion at home and abroad. Based on the tax burden theory, information asymmetry theory, tax compliance theory and cooperative game theory, this paper focuses on the causes of tax evasion of implicit economy in Gansu Province. Secondly, using the municipal panel data of 14 prefectures and cities in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2020, the scale of tax evasion in various regions of Gansu Province is calculated by using the mimic model and implicit economic measurement algorithm. From the calculation results, from 2010 to 2020, the fluctuation range of the absolute scale of tax evasion in Gansu Province is small, basically maintained at 155-204 million yuan, and the overall tax evasion rate shows a downward trend, ranging from 7.32% - 18.46%; From the regional level, the tax evasion in Southeast Gansu is relatively serious, while the tax evasion in Hexi is relatively slight. At the same time, the results also found that tax burden, government regulation, unemployment rate and labor force participation rate are important factors affecting the scale of tax evasion. Thirdly, it further analyzes the impact of tax evasion in Gansu Province, and finds that it has a serious negative effect on the fiscal revenue of Gansu Province, the income gap between urban and rural residents and the rational allocation of resources. Finally, it is suggested that Gansu Province should follow the basic idea of "innovative collection and management, comprehensive treatment and simultaneous development of multiple measures", and take measures such as appropriately reducing the level of tax burden, implementing reasonable government control measures, promoting the construction of intelligent tax and strengthening the monitoring of tax sources, so as to jointly control the problem of tax evasion by multiple departments.