财税与公共管理学院知识库

       进入新时代，我国经济发展呈现出新的特点。当前国内外形势发生深刻变化，出口与投资对国家经济拉动作用在弱化，不断抬头的贸易保护主义也在制约着出口。在这个复杂多变的国际背景中，我国主动构建新发展格局，以国内大循环为主体，以国内国外双循环相互促进，因此如何进一步释放国内消费活力至关重要。要挖掘国内消费潜力，就需努力扩大消费规模，积极推进消费结构的优化升级，在这一过程中，税制结构起到的作用不可忽视。这是因为长期以来，间接税是我国税制结构的主体，在促进收入分配公平化、引导消费等方面存在不足。因此，要深入分析当前我国税制结构存在的问题，明确税制结构对居民消费结构的影响机制，明晰这种影响的方向及程度，以便更好地提升消费结构，充分发挥消费对经济发展的基础性作用。

      基于这一思路，本文首先明确了税制结构的两大分类共三个角度，界定了消费结构的内涵，立足现有理论基础，就税制结构对消费结构的影响机制进行了介绍。然后通过近年来二者的数据及走势，系统地分析了当前现状。最后选取人均收入水平、税收负担水平、医疗卫生水平、社会保障水平四个控制变量，运用全国31个省市2009—2019年的面板模型，分别从税种结构、税系结构两大分类共三个角度对城镇居民消费结构的影响效应进行研究。

        通过研究可知，税种结构中的增值税、消费税是不利于消费结构升级；个人所得税有利于消费结构升级；企业所得税未通过显著性检验，但理论上是不利于消费结构升级的。在按课税对象性质不同划分的税系结构中，流转税是不利于消费结构升级；所得税是有利于消费结构升级的。在按税负能否转嫁所划分的税系结构中，直接税与间接税的比重是有利于消费结构的升级。

       最后，根据研究结果，结合现状实际，提出优化税制结构的政策建议：推进增值税改革以规避累退性负面影响、完善消费税制度以强化消费引导作用、优化个人所得税制度以发挥收入调节作用、提高直接税占比以扩大整体消费水平、提高居民收入水平与消费品质量以增强消费意愿、加大社会保障医疗卫生支出以解决后顾之忧，从而助力消费结构升级，更好地推动内需体系的培育与升级。

    We have entered a new era and our economic development has taken on new features.Currently, Domestic and international situation has undergone profound changes, the role of exports and investment in driving the national economy is weakening, and the rising trade protectionism is also restricting exports. In this complex and changeable international background, China is positively establishing a new pattern of development that is primarily based on a large domestic cycle and mutually reinforcing with a double cycle at home and abroad.Therefore, how to further release the vitality of domestic consumption is very important. To tap the potential of domestic consumption, we need to strive to expand the scale of consumption and actively promote the improvement and up-scaling of the consumption structure. In this process, the tax structure plays an important role. This is because China has implemented the tax system structure dominated by indirect tax for a long time, and there are deficiencies in realizing fair income distribution and consumption guidance. Thus, we ought to thoroughly study the problems that are in existence in China's current tax structure, clarify the impact mechanism of tax structure on Residents' consumption structure, and clarify the direction and degree of this impact, so as to better improve the consumption structure and give fully exert the fundamental position of consumption on economic advancement.

    Based on this idea, this paper first defines the two categories of tax structure from three angles, defines the connotation of consumption structure, and based on existing theoretical foundations, a presentation is made on the mechanisms by which the tax structure affects the structure of consumption. The current development trend in recent years is systematically analyzed through the chart. Finally, select four control variables: per capital income level, tax burden level, medical and health level and social security level, and use a panel model of 31 provinces and municipalities across the country for the period 2009-2019 to study the impact of urban residents' consumption structure from three perspectives: tax structure and tax system structure.

    The research shows that the value-added tax and consumption tax in the tax structure are not contributing to the promotion of the consumption structure; Personal income tax facilitates the enhancement of the consumption structure; Enterprise income tax has not passed the significance test, however, in theory it is not beneficial to the promotion of the consumption structure. In the tax system structure divided according to the nature of tax objects, turnover tax is not conducive to the upgrading of consumption structure; Income tax facilitates the improvement of the consumption structure.; In the tax system structure divided by whether the tax burden can be transferred, the ratio of direct to indirect taxes facilitates the diversification of the consumption structure.

    At the end, based on the results of the study and the existing situation, this paper provides policy recommendations for enhancing the structure of the tax system: promote the reform of value-added tax to avoid the negative impact of regressive, improve the consumption tax system to strengthen the guiding role of consumption, optimize the personal income tax system to playing the effect of income adjustments, Raise the ratio of direct taxes to expand the overall consumption level Improve the income level of residents and the quality of consumer goods to enhance consumption willingness, and increase social security and medical and health expenditure to solve worries, to facilitate the upgrading of the consumption structure and the better facilitation of the cultivation and enhancement of the domestic demand system.