财税与公共管理学院知识库

2014 年 8 月，《预算法》的第四次修改推开了地方政府债务发行的大门，地方政府融资的合法化促使地方政府债务规模爆发式增长，加上财政部代发的为应对金融危机、刺激经济增长的债务，这部分债务已有一定偿债压力。2020 年财政部强调，地方财政部门应加强债务风险把控，政府债券项目实施全过程监管，对专项债券项目“借、用、管、还”实行逐笔监控，确保到期偿债、严防偿付风险。如何在合理规模区间内发行地方政府债务、防范债务规模风险已成为一个亟需解决的问题。

河南省政府为积极推进基础设施、民生工程和社保项目的建设等，增加了地区经济活力，但同时也积累了大规模的地方政府债务。作为我国中原地区的人口大省及中原经济区的主要部分的河南省，如何把控地方政府债务规模已成为需尽快解决的问题。本文以河南省为研究对象，首先从宏观经济环境、经济财政发展状况、债务规模、地方政府偿债能力等方面分析河南省地方政府债务规模存在的问题，形成对河南省债务规模状况、规模所存在的问题及成因的认知，其次运用修正的 KMV 模型测度了既定违约概率下河南省债券发行量和违约率之间的关系，证明了目前河南省债务发行规模尚且在适度范围内，但考虑到目前河南省财政收支矛盾突出，债务发行规模剧增，一般债券规模存量基数大且化解困难，加之疫情影响，经济下行，现存债务规模问题得不到解决，河南省地方政府债务可能会存在规模不适度的问题。因此，本文运用 1994—2019 年的数据测算出 2020-2022年河南省地方政府债券安全发债规模。从而为河南省省级政府发行政府债券的规模提供可量化的参考指标。这对于河南省财政部门安全举债，防范规模风险具有借鉴意义，鉴于河南省 2020 年财政收入、新增债务规模已公布，与本文所测算的出的财政收入及安全发债规模均具有较高一致性，这也反映了本文研究的真实准确性，最后基于上文研究结论，结合河南省现行宏观经济状况，提出了加强河南省地方政府规模管控的对策和建议。

In August 2014, the fourth amendment of the budget law opened the door to the issuance of local government debt. The legalization of local government financing promoted the explosive growth of local  government debt scale. In addition, the debt issued by the Ministry of finance to cope with the financial crisis and stimulate economic growth, this part of debt has a certain debt repayment pressure. In 2020, the Ministry of Finance stressed that the local financial departments should strengthen the control of debt risk, implement the whole process supervision of government bond projects, and monitor the "borrowing, using, managing and returning" of special bond projects one by one, so as to ensure the debt repayment at maturity and strictly prevent the repayment risk. How to issue local government debt within a reasonable range and prevent the risk of debt scale has become an urgent problem.

In order to actively promote the construction of infrastructure, livelihood projects and social security projects, Henan provincial government has increased regional economic vitality, but also  accumulated large-scale local government debt. As a populous province  in the Central Plains and a major part of the Central Plains Economic Zone, how to control the scale of local government debt has become a problem to be solved as soon as possible. Taking Henan Province as the research object, this paper first analyzes the problems existing in the scale of local government debt in Henan Province from the macro-economic environment, economic and financial development, debt scale, local government solvency and other aspects, and forms the cognition of the scale of local government debt in Henan Province, the problems existing  in the scale and the causes. Then, it uses the modified KMV model to measure the default probability of Henan Province The relationship between bond issuance and default rate of Henan province proves that the current debt issuance scale of Henan Province is still in a moderate range. However, considering the prominent contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure, the sharp increase of debt issuance scale, the large stock base of general bond scale and the difficulties in resolving it, and the impact of the epidemic, the economic downturn, the existing problem of debt scale can’t be solved, the local government of Henan Province has to solve the problem that the scale of debt may not be appropriate. Therefore, this paper uses the data from 1994 to 2019 to calculate the safe issuing scale of local government bonds in Henan Province from 2020 to 2022.   So as to provide a quantifiable reference index for the scale of  government bonds issued by the provincial government of Henan Province. In view of the financial revenue and new debt scale of Henan Province in 2020 has been announced, which is highly consistent with the financial revenue and safe debt scale calculated in this paper, which also reflects  the  real  accuracy  of  this  study.  Finally,  based  on  the   above research conclusions, combined with the current macro-economic development of Henan Province, this paper analyzes the current situation of Henan Province. Finally, the paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen the scale control of local government in Henan Province.