统计与数据科学学院知识库

摘 要

农业经济与生态安全协同发展是农业现代化战略的核心目标，绿色生态已 然成为实现农业可持续发展的必要环节。发展生态循环农业，融入数字化技术 促进农业绿色转型是实现农业绿色发展的必要举措。随着互联网和通信技术的 迅速发展，数字普惠金融已成为现代金融体系中不可或缺的一部分，其作为科 技和金融创新的交汇点，为传统金融服务乃至农业领域注入了新活力。因此， 在数字普惠金融深刻重塑金融业态格局、传统农业不断绿色转型的背景下，推 动二者深度融合对于实现农业现代化、可持续化发展具有重要的现实意义。 在我国生态系统较为薄弱、经济发展相对滞后的西北地区，对于重点探究 数字普惠金融对农业绿色发展的影响具有代表性。因此，本文以西北地区 30 个 地级市作为研究对象，基于数字普惠金融和农业绿色发展的内涵特征，构建评 价指标体系，运用熵权法测算农业绿色发展水平；依据测度结果，从基准回归 与异质性出发，分析数字普惠金融对农业绿色发展的影响。最后，本文从技术 创新水平、资源配置效率、市场规模以及农村信息化水平四个角度出发，建立 中介效应模型、调节效应模型和门槛效应模型，多视角探究数字普惠金融对农 业绿色发展的作用机制。 研究结果表明：（1）西北地区数字普惠金融和农业绿色发展均呈现不均衡 发展态势。（2）数字普惠金融对农业绿色发展具有显著促进效应。异质性分解 显示，数字普惠金融覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度的影响强度呈现梯度差 异。（3）数字普惠金融通过提高技术创新水平与资源配置效率的复合传导路 径，对农业绿色发展产生显著提升效应。（4）市场规模与数字普惠金融形成动 态互补效应，且调节强度随市场规模扩大呈现边际效应增强特征。（5）农村信 息化水平与数字普惠金融的交互赋能对农业绿色发展产生非线性增强效应。 基于上述结论，建议优化区域战略布局，统筹生态与经济平衡；创新绿色 金融产品，推动农业绿色转型；强化技术协同与资源配置效率，构建数字链 条；扩大市场规模，增强经济韧性；加速农村信息化进程，释放发展潜能。

关键词：数字普惠金融 农业绿色发展 西北地区 调节效应 门槛效应

Abstract

The coordinated development of agricultural economy and ecological security constitutes the core objective of modern agricultural strategies, where green ecology has become an essential component for achieving sustainable agricultural development. Promoting eco-circular agriculture and integrating digital technologies to facilitate green transformation in agriculture are crucial measures for realizing environmentally friendly agricultural growth. With the rapid advancement of internet and communication technologies, digital inclusive finance has emerged as an indispensable element in modern financial systems. As the convergence of technological and financial innovation, it injects new vitality into traditional financial services and agricultural sectors. Against this backdrop of digital inclusive finance fundamentally reshaping financial ecosystems and traditional agriculture undergoing green transformation, fostering their deep integration holds significant practical implications for achieving agricultural modernization and sustainable development. In China's northwestern regions characterized by fragile ecosystems and relatively lagging economic development, investigating the impact of digital inclusive finance on agricultural green development proves particularly representative. This study selects 30 prefecture-level cities in northwestern China as research subjects. Based on the conceptual  frameworks and characteristics of digital inclusive finance and agricultural green development, we construct an evaluation index system and apply the entropy weight method to measure agricultural green development levels. Utilizing these measurements, we analyze the impact of digital inclusive finance through baseline regression and heterogeneity decomposition approaches. Furthermore, we establish mediation, moderation, and threshold effect models from four perspectives - technological innovation capacity, resource allocation efficiency, market scale, and rural informatization level - to comprehensively investigate the mechanisms through which digital inclusive finance influences agricultural green development. The findings reveal that: (1) Both digital inclusive finance and agricultural green development exhibit uneven spatial distribution patterns in northwestern China. (2) Digital inclusive finance demonstrates significant promotion effects on agricultural green development, with heterogeneity decomposition showing gradient differences in impact intensity across coverage breadth, usage depth, and digitalization degree. (3) Digital inclusive finance enhances agricultural green development through composite transmission pathways that improve technological innovation capacity and resource allocation efficiency. (4) Market scale forms dynamic complementary effects with digital inclusive finance, displaying intensified marginal effects as market scale expands. (5)The interactive empowerment between rural informatization and digital inclusive finance exerts a nonlinear enhancement effect on the green development of agriculture. Based on the findings, recommendations include: optimizing regional strategies to balance ecological and economic priorities; innovating green financial products to drive agricultural transformation; enhancing technical synergy and resource efficiency to build digital chains; cultivating scaled markets to strengthen economic resilience; and accelerating rural informatization to unlock development potential.

Keywords: Digital inclusive finance; Green development of agriculture; Northwest region; Moderating effect; Threshold effect