统计与数据科学学院知识库

应对气候变化的全球行动刻不容缓，温室气体过度排放引发的全球变暖现象已严重危及人类的可持续发展，在此形势下，巴黎气候大会应运而生，中国作为缔约方，承诺力争于2030年前实现二氧化碳排放达峰，并积极寻求提前达峰的可能性。当前，我国正处于从传统高碳经济向绿色低碳经济全面转型的关键阶段，甘肃省作为西部能源大省，探索经济增长与能源消费的协调机制，推动高质量发展，这一研究具有重要的现实意义。此外，为达成更早实现碳排放峰值的愿景，仍需系统研究可行的减排方案与实施路径。

本文首先梳理国内外对碳排放影响因素、碳达峰峰值预测等相关研究，深入剖析了甘肃省2000-2022年间经济社会发展、能源消费格局及碳排放特征的演变趋势。研究采用排放因子法核算区域碳排放总量，运用脱钩指数模型分析经济增长与碳排放的脱钩关系，并采用LMDI分解法对碳排放驱动因素进行分解。进一步研究从人口规模、人均GDP、工业化水平、碳排放强度、能源强度以及对外开放度六个维度，利用岭回归方法构建稳健的STIRPAT扩展模型。通过多情景模拟方法，将研究期划分为2021-2025、2026-2030和2031-2035三个时段，设定了基准、中速和高速三种发展情景，预测了甘肃省碳排放峰值及其达峰时间，并据此提出了差异化的碳减排政策建议。

根据以上分析得出结论：（1）甘肃省经济发展呈现上升趋势，尽管二氧化碳排放增速在最近几年呈现下降趋势，但其排放总量仍持续攀升，目前仍未达到碳排放峰值水平。（2）2000-2022年期间，甘肃省的碳脱钩系数整体呈现平稳趋势，经历了一个从扩张连接向弱脱钩逐步改善的过程，但脱钩弹性系数并非持续下降，近年来出现了轻微的反弹现象。（3）经济规模效应是甘肃省碳排放脱钩的关键驱动因素，能源消费强度次之，而人口规模效应的影响相对较小。（4）在对甘肃省进行碳达峰预测后得出，高碳情景下甘肃省在2035年无法实现碳达峰，当年碳排放量为54977.47万吨；基准情景下甘肃省碳达峰时间为2034年，当年碳排放量为47813.72万吨；低碳情景下甘肃省碳达峰时间为2030年，当年碳排放量为41466.62万吨。

基于以上结论对甘肃省碳减排路径提出以下政策建议：（1）强化战略统筹，推动区域协同发展：政府需制定低碳发展总体战略，并将其深度融入经济社会发展战略中，构建由省政府统筹管理与地方部门分工负责相结合的应对气候变化管理体制和工作机制。在推进城镇化的进程中，甘肃省不仅要关注发展速度，更要注重提升城镇化质量，积极践行新型城镇化发展路径。（2）实现经济稳增长，优化产业结构：经济的稳定是社会持续发展的重要基础，甘肃省在推动新能源产业发展的同时，第三产业的比重也在稳步增长。此外，甘肃省要实现碳脱钩目标，还需兼顾局部与整体的协同，以及短期与中长期碳减排的平衡，充分认识到各阶段减排工作的重要性。（3）引进高端人才，提高能源效率：科技创新人才是技术突破的关键，需构建产学研深度融合体系，完善人才保障机制，加速科技成果转化，通过优化资源配置实现创新链与产业链衔接，提升技术创新对经济社会发展的贡献。（4）对外贸易低碳转型：甘肃省需加快外贸绿色低碳转型，重点发展新能源装备、节能环保等低碳出口产品和服务业，优化进口结构，提升加工贸易产品低碳竞争力，并通过设立专项资金、完善标准体系、培育低碳品牌等措施确保转型成效。（5）倡导可持续消费观念，进行低碳消费政策引导：培育可持续消费观念对甘肃省实现长期减排目标至关重要，需通过多渠道普及绿色消费理念，将节能减排意识融入日常生活，引导公众形成环保型消费模式。

Global action against climate change is urgent. Global warming caused by excessive greenhouse gas emissions has seriously endangered human sustainable development. Under this situation, the Paris climate conference came into being. At the conference, China clearly proposed to strive to achieve the peak of carbon emissions by 2030, and was committed to achieving this goal ahead of time. At present, China is in an important stage of comprehensive transformation from high-carbon economy to green low-carbon development. As an important energy base in the western region, how to balance the relationship between economic growth and energy consumption and achieve high-quality development in Gansu Province has important practical value. At the same time, in order to achieve the goal of reaching the peak of carbon emissions earlier, it is still necessary to further explore practical emission reduction paths.

This paper first reviews the domestic and foreign research on the influencing factors of carbon emissions and the prediction of carbon peak value, and analyzes the evolution trend of economic and social development, energy consumption pattern and carbon emission characteristics in Gansu Province from 2000 to 2022. The carbon emission coefficient method is used to calculate the total carbon emission in Gansu Province, and the Tapio decoupling model is used to evaluate the decoupling status of carbon emission, and the LMDI model is used to quantitatively decompose the influencing factors. On this basis, the research dimension is extended to six levels: total population, per capita gross domestic product, the proportion of secondary industry, carbon emission density, energy efficiency and regional openness, and the ridge regression method is used to build a robust STIRPAT expansion model. By scenario analysis method, the period from 2021 to 2035 is divided into three research stages. Three development scenarios of low-speed, medium speed and high-speed are set for each influencing factor to predict the time node and peak level of carbon peak in Gansu Province. Finally, based on the research conclusion, targeted emission reduction strategies are proposed.

According to the above analysis, the conclusions are as follows: (1) the economy of Gansu province maintains a stable growth trend, and the growth rate of carbon dioxide emissions has dropped in recent years, but the total emissions are still rising year by year, and have not yet reached the peak of carbon peak. (2) From 2000 to 2022, the carbon decoupling coefficient of Gansu Province showed a stable trend as a whole, and went through a process of gradual improvement from expansion connection to weak decoupling, but the decoupling elasticity coefficient did not continue to decline, and there has been a slight rebound in recent years. (3) Economic scale effect is the key driving factor for decoupling of carbon emissions in Gansu Province, followed by energy consumption intensity, and the impact of population scale effect is relatively small. (4) After forecasting the carbon peak in Gansu Province, it is concluded that under the high carbon scenario, Gansu Province will not achieve the carbon peak in 2035, and the carbon emissions in that year will be 549.7747 million tons; Under the benchmark scenario, the carbon peak time of Gansu Province is 2034, and the carbon emissions in that year are 478.1372 million tons; Under the low-carbon scenario, the carbon peak time of Gansu Province is 2030, and the carbon emissions in that year are 414.6662 million tons.

Based on the above conclusions, the following policy suggestions are put forward for the path of carbon emission reduction in Gansu Province: (1) strengthen the top-level design and coordinate regional development: the government needs to formulate the overall low-carbon development strategy, and deeply integrate it into the economic and social development strategy, and build a management system and working mechanism for coping with climate change that combines the overall management of the provincial government and the division of responsibilities of local departments. In the process of promoting urbanization, Gansu Province should not only pay attention to the development speed, but also pay attention to improving the quality of urbanization, and actively practice the development path of new urbanization. (2) To achieve steady economic growth and optimize the industrial structure: economic stability is an important basis for sustainable social development. While promoting the development of new energy industry in Gansu Province, the proportion of the tertiary industry is also growing steadily. In addition, to achieve the goal of carbon decoupling in Gansu Province, it is also necessary to take into account the coordination of local and overall, as well as the balance of short-term and medium and long-term carbon emission reduction, and fully recognize the importance of emission reduction at all stages. (3) Introducing high-end talents and improving energy efficiency: scientific and technological innovation talents are the key to technological breakthroughs. It is necessary to build a deep integration system of industry, University and research, improve the talent security mechanism, accelerate the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, realize the connection between innovation chain and industrial chain through optimizing resource allocation, and enhance the contribution of technological innovation to economic and social development. (4) Low carbon transformation of foreign trade: Gansu Province needs to accelerate the green and low-carbon transformation of foreign trade, focus on the development of low-carbon export products and services such as new energy equipment, energy conservation and environmental protection, optimize the import structure, improve the low-carbon competitiveness of processing trade products, and ensure the transformation effect by setting up special funds, improving the standard system, cultivating low-carbon brands and other measures. (5) Advocating the concept of sustainable consumption and guiding the low-carbon consumption policy: cultivating the concept of sustainable consumption is essential for Gansu Province to achieve the long-term emission reduction goal. It is necessary to popularize the concept of green consumption through multiple channels, integrate the awareness of energy conservation and emission reduction into daily life, and guide the public to form an environment-friendly consumption mode.