国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  随着全球经济持续受到供应链重组、债务危机以及通货膨胀等因素深入影响，世界经济继续处于中低速增长阶段，贸易成本及不确定性逐渐增强，各国增长分化趋势日趋明显。但随着数字经济时代的快速发展，衍生出人工智能等多种新型数字技术，与实体服务贸易结合产生的数字服务贸易在很大程度上缓解世界经济下行压力，贸易数字化成为释放贸易潜力的主要途径，也是促进中国制造业、金融业等多种商业领域服务化、数字化转型的强大动力。

  首先，通过对国内外相关文献研究进行梳理总结，全面了解数字服务贸易、贸易潜力及中国与RCEP经贸合作各方面现有研究成果，为本文的研究方向及研究方法奠定基础。其次，对相关理论及概念进行界定分析，明晰研究思路，深入分析掌握中国对RCEP其他成员国数字服务贸易产品的出口规模和出口结构，总结归纳总体贸易规模和中国产品出口结构特征，同时通过测算具体竞争力指数，深入剖析中国对目标贸易市场数字服务贸易出口是否具有竞争优势，以及是否与贸易国家在产品贸易中具有互补性。最后，选取2008-2021年中国对RCEP其他成员国数字服务贸易产品出口额数据，构建随机前沿引力模型，测算中国对RCEP其他成员国进行数字服务贸易的出口潜力，并回归分析具体因素对出口潜力的影响机制效应，具体分析测算结果如下：

  第一，在出口规模和出口结构方面，中国数字服务贸易出口主要呈现规模逐年扩大，但总体贸易逆差仍然较大，且呈现贸易市场集中度高和贸易行业产品集中度高的双高特征，出口国家主要以日本、韩国和新加坡为主，出口产品多集中于电子计算机和信息服务与其他商业服务；第二，从对中国数字服务贸易竞争力三个指数测算结果来看，中国在电信、计算机和信息产品的出口贸易中具有很强的竞争优势，但与各国的总体贸易互补性均较弱，仍具有较大的可开发贸易发展空间；第三，由随机前沿引力模型实证结果可得，中国同澳大利亚、日本、韩国等11个国家的数字服务产品出口平均效率在2021年仅为45%，出口效率有所提升但效率水平仍处于较低水平，表明中国数字服务产品的出口贸易仍有很大的可供拓展空间，运用时变随机前沿引力模型回归分析影响中国数字服务产品出口贸易的具体因素，将影响因素具体按照：自然因素、经济市场因素、数字基础设施建设、制度距离和文化距离以及贸易开放程度分样本，自然因素与制度距离文化距离对中国数字服务产品出口呈阻碍作用，经济发展水平及人口规模则显著促进中国对该市场的数字服务产品出口贸易，数字基础设施也可通过完善该市场数字基建、提高互联网普及率来正向促进实现数字服务贸易，另外该市场的贸易开放程度提高了中国数字服务产品进入该国市场的便利度，但同时也可能带来该市场的巨大竞争压力。

  上述研究结论有助于明晰中国数字服务贸易发展现状，帮助中国企业了解各国数字服务贸易发展程度，以便开展针对性生产与布局，同时以期为中国参与完善数字服务贸易国际规则，有的放矢地制定相应的政策制度做出贡献。因此，本文提出以下相应建议：第一，加强顶层设计，增强区域认同。第二，夯实数字基础，增强有效供给。第三完善合作机制，拓展贸易“朋友圈”。以期拓展中国数字服务贸易发展的新路径，从而提升中国数字服务贸易出口效率和国际竞争力。

     As the global economy continues to be deeply affected by supply chain restructuring, the debt crisis and inflation, the world economy continues to be in a phase of medium-to-low growth, with trade costs and uncertainties gradually increasing, and the trend of growth divergence among countries becoming more obvious. However, with the rapid development of the digital economy era, a variety of new digital technologies such as artificial intelligence have been derived, and the digital service trade generated by combining with the physical service trade has alleviated the downward pressure on the world economy to a large extent, and trade digitization has become the main way to release the potential of trade, which also points out the direction of the high-quality development of china's service trade.

     Firstly, through combing and summarizing the relevant literature research at home and abroad, we comprehensively understand the existing research results on digital service trade, trade potential and china's economic and trade cooperation with RCEP, so as to lay a foundation for the research direction and research method of this paper. Secondly, on the basis of defining and analyzing relevant theories and concepts, we analyze and grasp the scale and structure of china's exports of digital service trade products to other RCEP member countries, summarize the overall scale and structure of exports, and at the same time, through the calculation of specific competitiveness indexes, we analyze the competitiveness and complementarities of china's exports of digital service trade in depth. In the final phase of this study, empirical analysis was conducted utilizing a dataset encompassing China's digital service trade exports to RCEP member states from 2008 to 2021. Through the construction of a stochastic frontier gravity model, the research quantitatively assessed the export potential of China's digital services within the RCEP framework and systematically examined the determinants influencing this potential. The analytical outcomes derived from the measurement process can be summarized as follows:

     Firstly, in terms of export scale and export structure, china's digital services trade exports mainly show the scale of year-on-year expansion, but the overall trade deficit is still large, and presents a high degree of concentration in the trade market and high product concentration in the trade industry, double high characteristics, the exporting countries are mainly in Japan, South Korea and Singapore, the export products are mostly concentrated in the electronic computer and information services and other commercial services; second, from the Chinese digital services secondly, from the results of the three indexes of china's digital services trade competitiveness, china has a strong competitive advantage in the export trade of electronic, computer and information products, but the overall trade complementarity with various countries is weak, and there is still a large exploitation of the trade development space; thirdly, from the empirical results of the stochastic frontier gravity model, china's average efficiency of the digital services trade exports with Australia, Japan, South Korea and other 11 countries is only 45 percent in 2021 is only 45%, the efficiency is improved but still low, indicating that china's digital service trade export still has a lot of room for expansion. Additionally, this research utilizes a time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model to examine the determinants influencing China's exports of digital services. The regression results reveal that specific factors can be categorized into distinct groups: natural determinants, economic market conditions, digital infrastructure development, institutional and cultural proximity, and trade openness. Notably, the analysis indicates that natural factors, as well as institutional and cultural distances, exert a constraining effect on the export performance of China's digital service products. These findings suggest that geographical limitations and differences in institutional and cultural frameworks may act as barriers to trade expansion in the digital services sector., the level of economic development the level of economic development and population size significantly promote china's export trade of digital service products to this market, digital infrastructure can also positively promote the realization of digital service trade by improving the market's digital infrastructure and increasing the internet penetration rate, and the degree of trade openness of this market improves the convenience of china's digital service products to enter the country's market, but at the same time, it may also bring great competitive pressure in this market.

     The above findings help us recognize the current situation of china's digital services trade development, help Chinese enterprises understand the degree of development of digital services trade in various countries, in order to carry out targeted production and layout, and at the same time, with a view to improving the international rules for china's digital services trade, and formulating corresponding policy systems in a targeted manner. Therefore, this paper puts forward the following corresponding recommendations: First, strengthen the top-level design and enhance regional identity. Second, strengthen the digital foundation and enhance effective supply. Third, improve the cooperation mechanism and expand the trade "circle of friends". In order to expand the new path for the development of china's digital trade in services, thereby enhancing the efficiency and international competitiveness of china's digital trade in services exports.