国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  随着全球经济格局持续演进，国际贸易结构经历显著转变，服务贸易逐渐成为全球经济发展的重要支柱，在国际贸易体系中展现出最强的活力。相较于传统农业、制造业商品出口，服务业出口不仅具有更高的附加值，还更容易规避贸易壁垒和西方的打压与限制。然而，中国的服务业贸易长期面临出口层次较低、效益欠佳的问题，为了把握时代发展的机遇，适应进入高质量发展阶段的要求，中国迫切需要推动服务业提质增效、结构转型，以此提高出口竞争力，不仅要重视国内的科技突破和生产要素创新性配置等内生动力，更需要与国际先进水平进行交流学习。作为当今世界的投资大国，中国不仅可以通过对外直接投资来寻求新的贸易增长动能，还能将世界领先的新型生产技术、新管理体系、新商业模式、新兴产业等引入国内市场并进行推广、吸收和再创新，迅速提高国内相关企业的技术水平和生产效率，为服务业贸易的发展注入新的活力和动力。所以，通过进一步量化分析服务出口产品的国际竞争力，研究OFDI影响服务业出口“质量”的机制和影响因素具有重要的现实意义。

  基于以上背景，本文从理论和实证两方面来研究中国对外投资对服务业出口技术复杂度的影响。笔者首先从概念界定、公式测算、影响因素等方面梳理了关于对外投资和服务业出口技术复杂度的研究成果与文献，厘清理论研究发展脉络，结合经典理论，从企业角度和行业、产业角度分别分析对外投资对出口技术复杂度的多种作用机制。其次，利用样本国（地区）2013—2022年服务业出口的面板数据进行服务业出口技术复杂度测算，并从中国服务出口层面出发，结合东道国研发投资强度、知识产权保护水平等控制变量，对中国OFDI与服务业出口技术复杂度之间的关系进行实证分析，结果表明中国对样本国（地区）的直接投资会显著促进中国服务业出口技术复杂度的提升，并存在一定的阶梯效应。随后再根据东道国收入水平和投资行业特征进行异质性分析，发现OFDI推动服务业发展的效率与机制因投资方向的不同而存在相应的区别。最后，在所得结论基础上，提出相应政策建议，有利于政府明确服务业价值链提升路径，帮助中国在新发展阶段加快实现服务业高质量发展和投资强国建设。

   With the continuous evolution of the global economic landscape, the structure of international trade has undergone significant changes. Service trade has gradually become an important pillar of global economic development, demonstrating the strongest vitality in the international trade system. Compared with traditional agricultural and manufacturing goods exports, service exports not only have higher added value but are also more likely to circumvent trade barriers and Western suppression and restrictions. However, China's service trade has long faced the problem of low export levels and poor efficiency. To seize the opportunities of the times and meet the requirements of entering a high-quality development stage, it is urgent to use new quality productivity to promote the improvement and transformation of the service industry, thereby enhancing export competitiveness. The development of new quality productivity not only requires domestic technological breakthroughs and innovative allocation of production factors as internal driving forces but also needs to exchange and learn from international advanced levels. As a major investment country in the world today, China can not only seek new trade growth momentum through outward direct investment (OFDI) but also introduce and promote world-leading new production technologies, new management systems, new business models, and emerging industries into the domestic market for absorption and re-innovation, rapidly improving the technological level and production efficiency of domestic related enterprises and injecting new vitality and impetus into the development of service trade. Therefore, conducting a further quantitative analysis of the international competitiveness of service export products and studying the mechanism and influencing factors of OFDI on the "quality" of service exports has important practical significance.

    Based on the above background, this paper studies the impact of China's outward investment on the technological complexity of service exports from both theoretical and empirical perspectives. The author first reviews the research results and literature on OFDI and the technological complexity of service exports from the aspects of concept definition, formula calculation, and influencing factors, clarifying the development of theoretical research and analyzing the multiple mechanisms of OFDI on export technological complexity from the perspectives of enterprises, industries, and sectors. Secondly, using panel data on service exports of sample countries (regions) from 2013 to 2022, the technological complexity of service exports is calculated, and an empirical analysis is conducted on the relationship between China's OFDI and the technological complexity of service exports from the perspective of China's service exports, combined with control variables such as the intensity of R&D investment and the level of intellectual property protection in the host country. The results show that China's direct investment in sample countries (regions) significantly promotes the improvement of the technological complexity of China's service exports and there is a certain step effect. Then, heterogeneity analysis is conducted based on the income level of the host country and the characteristics of the investment industry, and it is found that the efficiency and mechanism of OFDI in promoting the development of the service industry vary according to the direction of investment. Finally, based on the obtained conclusions, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed, which are conducive to the government clarifying the path for the improvement of the service industry value chain and helping China accelerate the realization of high-quality development of the service industry and the construction of an investment power in the new development stage.