金融学院知识库

随着金融科技的快速演进，其对银行业的影响全方位深入，从业务范畴的拓展与重塑，到服务模式的创新变革，乃至组织架构的优化调整，金融科技的力量促使商业银行各部门及业务条线之间的联系更为紧密，协同性显著增强。与此同时，金融风险的传播路径与速率也随之发生深刻改变，各类风险在错综复杂的金融网络中交织缠绕，传播更为迅速且隐蔽，商业银行系统性风险的防控难度大幅提升，风险防范已然成为监管部门工作的重中之重。在新的形势下，金融科技将进一步发挥赋能和支撑作用，提升金融业服务于国民经济重点领域和薄弱环节，为高质量发展做出贡献，深入探究金融科技对商业银行系统性风险的影响，对于商业银行稳健经营具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。

本文首先对金融科技发展和商业银行系统性风险的相关研究成果进行梳理并提出本文研究假设，基于2014-2023年我国A股上市39家商业银行数据，采用DCC-GARCH模型分别计算∆CoVaR和MES作为商业银行系统性风险的代理变量，并采用文本挖掘法分别构建内外部金融科技发展指数，实证研究金融科技发展对商业银行系统性风险的影响。进一步从商业银行股权性质、系统重要性及公司治理性质探究异质性影响。并引入不良贷款率作为中介变量，分析金融科技发展和商业银行系统性风险的中介作用。

本文结论如下：（1）金融科技发展对商业银行系统性风险有显著的正向作用，提高商业银行系统性风险发生的可能性，经稳健性验证，结果依旧稳健。（2）金融科技发展提高了银行不良贷款率，对商业银行系统性风险具有正向作用。（3）金融科技对商业银行系统风险的影响在不同类型企业中存在异质性，国有银行、股权集中型机构及系统重要性银行风险敏感度更高。基于上述研究结论，本文提出商业银行应审慎推进金融科技发展，并依据各银行类型制定差异化金融科技发展战略，监管部门要从风险监测与防控体系建设、政策体系及监管科技应用等方面进行完善，以维护金融体系的稳定与安全，引导金融科技健康发展。

With the rapid evolution of financial technology, its impact on the banking industry has deepened in all aspects, from the expansion and reshaping of business scope, to the innovation and reform of service models, and even the optimization and adjustment of organizational structure, the power of financial technology has promoted the closer connection between various departments and business lines of commercial banks, and the synergy has been significantly enhanced. At the same time, the transmission path and rate of financial risks have also undergone profound changes, and various risks are intertwined in the complex financial network, spreading more rapidly and hidden, and the difficulty of preventing and controlling systemic risks of commercial banks has been greatly increased, and risk prevention has become the top priority of the work of the regulatory authorities. Under the new situation, financial technology will further play an enabling and supporting role, enhance the financial industry to serve the key areas and weak links of the national economy, contribute to high-quality development, and deeply explore the impact of financial technology on the systemic risk of commercial banks, which has important theoretical value and practical significance for the sound operation of commercial banks.

Based on the data of 39 A-share listed commercial banks in China from 2014 to 2023, this paper uses the DCC-GARCH model to calculate and MES as the proxy variable of the systemic risk of commercial banks, and uses the text mining method to construct the internal and external financial technology development indexes respectively, so as to empirically study the impact of financial technology development on the systemic risk of commercial banks. Furthermore, the impact of heterogeneity is explored from the nature of equity, systemic importance and corporate governance of commercial banks. The non-performing loan ratio is introduced as an intermediary variable to analyze the mediating role of financial technology development and the systemic risk of commercial banks.

The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The development of financial technology has a significant positive effect on the systemic risk of commercial banks, and improves the probability of the occurrence of systemic risk of commercial banks. (2) The development of financial technology has increased the non-performing loan ratio of banks, which has a positive effect on the systemic risk of commercial banks. (3) The impact of financial technology on the systemic risk of commercial banks is heterogeneous among different types of enterprises, and state-owned banks, equity concentration institutions and systemically important banks are more sensitive to risk. Based on the above conclusions, this paper proposes that commercial banks should prudently promote the development of financial technology, formulate differentiated financial technology development strategies according to each type of bank, and improve the risk monitoring and prevention and control system, policy system and regulatory technology application to maintain the stability and security of the financial system and guide the healthy development of financial technology.