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自20世纪末，国务院明确停止住房分配制度以来，房地产行业蓬勃发展，2003年我国更是把房地产行业看作国民经济的支柱产业，而房地产价格作为房地产行业最重要的要素指标，则成为资源配置的重要影响因素。货币政策作为宏观调控的重要手段，应当发挥其积极作用，同时随着金融市场的飞速发展，货币政策还可能通过股票价格路径间接影响到房地产价格，因此本文将房地产市场和股票市场同时引入货币政策的作用体系，进而揭示货币政策对房价直接和间接两类影响的具体特征。

本文采用理论和实证相结合的方法进行研究。首先，从理论上厘清货币政策、股票价格和房地产价格之间的影响机制，为文章奠定理论基础。其次，基于2003年1月到2022年12月共240组月度数据，选取货币供应量、银行间7天同业拆借加权平均利率、上证综合指数和商品房平均销售价格作为指标，构建马尔可夫区制转移向量自回归（MS-VAR）模型，划分各个经济时期，进一步在此基础上，采用时变参数向量自回归（TVP-VAR）模型从等间隔冲击、特定区制时点脉冲响应两个角度分析数量型和价格型货币政策对房价的时变性影响。根据结果，综合判断我国货币政策能否有效通过股价路径传导至房价。

研究结果表明：第一，我国的经济情况可以分为三个区制状态，同时，货币政策、股票价格和房地产价格之间存在明显的非线性特征。第二，数量型货币政策对房价有直接和间接作用，与房价呈正相关关系，对房价的直接作用效果显著。第三，价格型货币政策对房价有直接和间接作用，但整体而言，价格型货币政策对房价的直接调控效果并不明显。综上，在不同区制状态时点，会形成“货币政策—股票价格—房地产价格”依次传导的联动机制。

最后，本文根据理论分析和实证结果提出如下建议：第一，灵活调整货币政策调控方式。第二，货币当局应当合理选择货币政策工具。第三，在制定货币政策进行调控时，应当充分考虑股票市场和房地产市场间的联动效应。第四，投资者在进行投资决策前应审慎分析宏观经济环境，建立合理的投资组合。

Since the end of the 20th century, the State Council explicitly stopped the housing allocation system, the real estate industry is booming, in 2003 China is the real estate industry as the pillar industry of the national economy, and real estate prices as the real estate industry's most important elemental indicators, has become an important influence on the allocation of resources. Monetary policy as an important means of macro-control, should play its positive role, at the same time with the rapid development of the financial market, monetary policy may also indirectly affect the real estate prices through the stock price path, so this paper will be the real estate market and the stock market at the same time to introduce the role of the monetary policy system, which reveals the specific characteristics of the impact of monetary policy on the price of housing directly and indirectly two types of impact.

This paper uses a combination of theoretical and empirical methods to conduct the study. First, the influence mechanism between monetary policy, stock price and real estate price is clarified theoretically to lay a theoretical foundation for the article. Second, based on a total of 240 sets of monthly data from January 2003 to December 2022, the money supply, interbank 7-day interbank lending weighted average interest rate, SSE Composite Index and average sales price of commercial properties are selected as the indicators, and a Markov zone system transfer vector autoregression (MS-VAR) model is constructed to divide each economic period, and further based on this, the time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) model is used to analyze the time-varying effects of quantitative and price-based monetary policies on house prices from the perspectives of equal-interval shocks and impulse responses at specific time-points of the district system. Based on the results, it is comprehensively judged whether China's monetary policy can be effectively transmitted to house prices through the stock price path.

The results of the study show that, firstly, the economic situation in China can be divided into three zone system states, meanwhile, there are obvious non-linear characteristics between monetary policy, stock prices and real estate prices. Secondly, quantity-based monetary policy has direct and indirect effects on house prices, and is positively correlated with house prices, with significant direct effects on house prices. Third, price-based monetary policy has direct and indirect effects on house prices, but overall, the direct regulatory effect of price-based monetary policy on house prices is not obvious. To sum up, in different zones and states, the linkage mechanism of "monetary policy - stock prices - real estate prices" will be formed sequentially.

Finally, this paper puts forward the following suggestions based on the theoretical analysis and empirical results: First, monetary policy regulation should be flexibly adjusted. Second, monetary authorities should choose monetary policy tools rationally. Third, when formulating monetary policy for regulation, the linkage effect between the stock market and real estate market should be fully considered. Fourthly, investors should carefully analyze the macroeconomic environment and establish a reasonable investment portfolio before making investment decisions.