金融学院知识库

随着我国生育政策由上世纪的独生子女政策逐步过渡到允许单独夫妇生育二孩、全面实施二孩乃至进一步开放三孩，这不仅促使了家庭子女结构的变化，也促进了社会生育观念的深刻变革，从而造成家庭内部子女构成的多样化趋势愈发显著，子女数量和性别比例的差异日益加大。这些变化对家庭资源配置、抚养支出以及长远的养老规划等方面产生了深远影响，进而影响商业养老保险的参与。本文结合当下形势，探究子女结构对我国商业养老保险参与的影响，期望能以此深入地解释家庭商业养老保险参与行为的理论，丰富以子女为主要视角的实证研究，并且为保险公司产品创新、优化客户服务提供依据，促进我国养老保险市场的健康发展。

本文在研究过程中，将理论与实证相结合。首先对国内外已有成果进行梳理，结合相关理论分析子女结构对商业养老保险参与的影响机理，并分析我国子女结构和商业养老保险发展现状。在此基础上，选取2021年中国综合社会调查数据作为样本数据，实证方法采用普通最小二乘法回归，以探究其相关性，并使用倾向得分匹配法进行稳健性检验证明其结果可靠性。将总样本按照地域和工作部门划分子样本进行异质性检验，以此来探究不同特征在子女结构影响商业养老保险参与中的作用差异。将家庭全年总收入作为中介变量，探究子女数量和子女性别与商业养老保险参与之间是否存在中介效应。研究结果发现：子女数量对商业养老保险参与有显著负向影响，拥有男性子女将抑制家庭商业养老保险参与。子女结构在东部地区家庭的作用显著高于中西部地区家庭，在非国有部门及企业工作的家庭显著高于国有部门家庭。家庭全年总收入在子女数量与商业养老保险参与之间存在部分中介效应，在子女性别与商业养老保险参与之间不存在中介效应。

基于此，本文建议保险公司创新保险产品、推动缴费金额弹性化、利用科技赋能，政府应实施政策差异化并加强养老保险政策的宣传和普及。

With the gradual transition of China's fertility policy from the onechild policy of the last century to allowing single couples to have two children, the full implementation of the two-child policy and even the further opening up of the three-child policy, this has not only prompted changes in the structure of children in the family, but has also contributed to a profound change in society's concept of childbearing, which has resulted in a more and more pronounced diversification of the composition of children within the family, and an ever-growing disparity in the number of children and gender ratios. These changes have had a profound impact on the allocation of family resources, dependency expenditures and longterm pension planning, which in turn affects the participation of commercial pension insurance. Combined with the current situation, this paper explores the impact of children's structure on China's commercial pension insurance participation, hoping to explain the theory of family commercial pension insurance participation behavior in depth, enrich the empirical research with children as the main perspective, and provide a basis for insurance company product innovation and optimization of customer service, so as to promote the healthy development of China's pension insurance market.

This paper combines theory and empirical evidence in the research process. First of all, we sort out the existing results at home and abroad, and analyze the influence mechanism of children's structure on the participation of commercial pension insurance by combining the relevant theories after analyzing the children's structure and the current situation of the development of commercial pension insurance in China. On this basis, the 2021 China General Social Survey data is selected as the sample data, and the empirical method adopts ordinary least squares regression to explore the correlation, and the propensity score matching method is used to conduct a robustness test to prove the reliability of the results. The total sample is divided into sub-samples according to geography and work sector for heterogeneity test, as a way to explore the differences in the role of different characteristics in the influence of children's structure on commercial pension insurance participation. The total annual income of the family is used as a mediating variable to investigate whether there is a mediating effect between the number of children and the gender of the children and commercial pension insurance participation. The results of the study found that the number of children has a significant negative effect on commercial pension insurance participation, and having male children will inhibit families' commercial pension insurance participation. The role of child structure is significantly higher for families in the eastern region than for families in the central and western regions, and families working in the non-state sector and enterprises are significantly higher than families in the state sector. There is a partial mediating effect of total annual household  income between the number of children and commercial pension insurance participation, and there is no mediating effect between the gender of children and commercial pension insurance participation.

Based on this, this paper suggests that insurance companies should innovate insurance products, promote the elasticity of contribution amounts, and utilize technology to empower them, and that the government should implement policy differentiation and strengthen the publicity and popularization of pension insurance policies.