金融学院知识库

摘要
自 2008 年金融危机以后，我国居民部门的杠杆率不断攀升，2008-2022 年我国居民部门杠杆率从 17.9%上升至 61.9%，15 年间增长了三倍多，同时 根据国际经验表明，居民杠杆率一旦超过 65%，将给经济金融稳定带来冲击。 近几年，数字普惠金融在我国快速发展，31 省份的数字普惠金融指数均值从 2011 年的 40 增长到了 2022 年的 379.44，增加了 9.5 倍。数字普惠金融的发 展为居民提供了方便、快捷、低成本的金融服务，提升了居民的信贷可得性、 支付便捷性和风险偏好，越来越多的居民家庭喜欢通过借贷来满足自己的消 费或者投资需求，导致居民家庭债务杠杆升高，进而引发居民家庭债务风险 的攀升。在当下防范化解重大金融风险的重要时期，深入剖析数字普惠金融 的发展态势，以及它如何影响居民家庭债务风险，对于促进数字普惠金融的 健康、高效发展，并有效管理潜在风险，具有深远的意义。这一研究不仅有 助于我们更好地理解和把握数字普惠金融的发展，更能为风险防控政策的制 定提供科学依据，以推动金融体系的稳健运行和社会的和谐发展。
本文主要研究数字普惠金融对居民家庭债务风险的影响机制，通过对国 内外相关文献进行梳理，归纳了现有研究成果，并对数字普惠金融如何影响 居民家庭债务风险的理论路径进行了深入的剖析，在充分理解现有理论的基 础上，进一步提出了本文的研究假设。为了验证这些假设，首先，本文借助 中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据库和北京大学的数字普惠金融指数，进行 回归分析，结果显示数字普惠金融总指数与居民家庭的债务风险之间呈正向 关系，同时，数字普惠金融三个子维度指数的发展会导致居民家庭的债务风 险的攀升，其中对居民家庭债务风险影响最大的数字普惠金融的覆盖广度， 其次是数字普惠金融的数字化程度，影响最小的是数字普惠金融使用深度的 发展。其次，在异质性分析中，发现这一现象在中西部地区家庭、低收入家 庭、农村家庭以及健康水平较差的家庭中尤为明显。最后，运用中介效应模 型探究了数字普惠金融通过缓解居民家庭信贷约束、提高支付便捷性和提升 居民家庭的风险偏好这三个途径对居民家庭债务风险的具体影响机制，结果 显示数字普惠金融通过这三个渠道对居民家庭债务风险产生正向影响，其中 通过信贷约束对居民家庭债务风险的影响最大，其次是通过支付便利性对居民家庭债务风险的影响，最后通过风险偏好对居民家庭债务风险的影响最小。 为了推动数字普惠金融高质量发展、防范和化解居民家庭债务风险，本文提 出了要有序发展数字普惠金融，要强化对居民家庭的金融教育和数字普惠金 融基础设施建设，有关部门应关注因健康状况较差陷入居民家庭债务风险的 家庭，同时也要强化金融监管，有效防控居民家庭债务风险。

Abstract
Since the outbreak of the 2008 financial crisis, the leverage ratio within China's residential sector has exhibited a steady and unchecked upward trend.From 2008 to 2022,the leverage ratio of China's residential sector increased from 17.9% to 61.9%, a growth of more than three times in 15 years. According to international experience, once the leverage ratio of residents exceeds 65%,it will have an impact on economic and financial stability. In recent years,digital inclusive finance has developed rapidly in China, with the average index of digital inclusive finance in 31 provinces increasing from 40 in 2011 to 379.44 in 2022, an increase of 9.5 times. The development of digital inclusive finance has provided convenient, fast, and low-cost financial services for residents, improving their credit availability, payment convenience, and risk preference. More and more households prefer to meet their consumption or investment needs through borrowing, leading to an increase in household debt leverage and subsequently causing an increase in household debt risk. In the current important period of preventing and resolving major financial risks, in-depth analysis of the development trend of digital inclusive finance and how it affects household debt risk is of profound significance for promoting the healthy and efficient development of digital inclusive finance and effectively managing potential risks. This study not only helps us better understand and grasp the development of digital inclusive finance, but also provides scientific basis for the formulation of risk prevention and control policies,in order to promote the stable operation of the financial system and the harmonious development of society.
This article mainly studies the impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on household debt risk. By reviewing relevant literature at home and abroad, existing research results are summarized, and the theoretical path of how digital inclusive finance affects household debt risk is deeply analyzed. Based on a full understanding of existing theories, the research hypothesis of this article is further proposed. To verify these hypotheses, firstly, this article conducted regression analysis using the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) database and the Digital Inclusive Finance Index from Peking University. The results showed a positive relationship between the overall index of digital inclusive finance and the debt risk of households. At the same time, the development of the three sub dimensions of digital inclusive finance index will lead to an increase in the debt risk of households. Among them, the coverage breadth of digital inclusive finance has the greatest impact on the debt risk of households, followed by the degree of digitalization of digital inclusive finance, and the development of the depth of use of digital inclusive finance has the least impact. Secondly, in the heterogeneity analysis, it is found that this phenomenon is particularly obvious in families in central and western regions, low-income families, rural families and families with poor health level. Finally, the mediation effect model was used to explore the specific impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on household debt risk through three channels: alleviating household credit constraints, improving payment convenience, and enhancing household risk preference. The results showed that digital inclusive finance has a positive impact on household debt risk through these three channels, with credit constraints having the greatest impact on household debt risk, followed by payment convenience having the least impact on household debt risk, and finally, risk preference having the least impact on household debt risk. In order to promote the high-quality development of digital inclusive finance, prevent and resolve household debt risks, this paper proposes to develop digital inclusive finance in an orderly manner, strengthen financial education for households and the construction of digital inclusive financial infrastructure, relevant departments should pay attention to households that fall into household debt risks due to poor health conditions, and strengthen financial supervision. Effectively prevent and control household debt risks.