统计与数据科学学院知识库

  农业作为国民经济发展的基石，一直承载着保障国家粮食安全、促进农村经济发展、提高农民收入等多重使命。然而，在农业长期以来的高速发展背后有许多的资源被滥用，同时生态环境也遭到了严重破坏，这些问题不仅制约了农业的可持续发展，也对人们的生存环境带来了巨大威胁。因此，推动农业绿色发展，实现农业与生态环境和谐共生，成为了当今农业发展的重要课题。在农业绿色发展的道路上，农业生产者往往面临着自然风险和市场风险等多重挑战。因此，农业保险作为农业风险管理的重要金融手段，其在农业绿色发展中的作用逐渐受到人们的关注。甘肃省是西部地区的农业大省，从2007年开始，就与全国一道进行了农业保险的试点项目，并取得了长足发展。因此，本文用涵盖了经济和生态两方面综合效率的农业绿色全要素生产率(Green Total Factor Productivity, GTFP)衡量农业绿色发展水平，以甘肃省14个市州为对象，对甘肃省农业保险发展水平如何影响农业绿色全要素生产率以及其作用机制进行研究。这对实现双碳目标存在重大意义，同时为推进西部地区实现农业可持续发展提供了依据。

  本文首先梳理了关于农业保险与农业绿色全要素生产率的相关研究成果，并对农业保险和农业GTFP的概念进行阐述，在相关理论基础之上，深入分析了农业保险对农业GTFP的影响机制。其次，对甘肃省以及各市州农业保险发展和农业发展现状进行分析。又从农业保险发展规模、赔付水平、运行效率三个层面构建综合评价指标体系，基于碳排碳汇双重视角构建农业GTFP投入产出指标体系，利用熵权法和SBM—GML指数模型测算2007—2021年甘肃省各市州农业保险发展水平和农业绿色全要素生产率GML指数及其分解项，并对测算结果进行分析。最后构建双向固定效应模型研究甘肃省农业保险发展水平对农业GTFP及其分解项的影响关系，在此基础上对其内在影响机制进行检验分析，并利用面板分位数模型进行异质性分析。研究结果表明：(1)甘肃省农业保险发展水平整体呈上升趋势，其增长存在两个明显的时间节点，大部分市州农业保险发展仍处于较低水平。(2)甘肃省农业绿色全要素生产率呈波动性增长趋势，各市州农业绿色全要素生产率变化幅度存在显著差异。(3)甘肃省农业保险的发展对农业绿色全要素生产率的增长具有积极促进作用，且这种促进作用是通过扩大农业经营规模来实现的。然而，在不同农业GTFP水平的区域下，农业保险发展水平对其的促进作用表现出异质性。

  根据研究结论，本文提出以下相关建议：完善农业保险保障体系；加强农业保险制度建设；加大农业保险宣传力度扩大农业生产经营规模；促进农业绿色科技创新与农业保险创新相结合；增加甘肃省农业绿色全要素生产率低水平区域的农业保险补贴力度。

      Agriculture, as the cornerstone of national economic development, has always carried the multiple missions of ensuring national food security, promoting rural economic development, and increasing farmers' incomes. However, behind the long-term rapid development of agriculture, there has been a great amount of resource abuse, and the ecological environment has also been severely damaged. These issues not only constrain the sustainable development of agriculture but also pose significant threats to the living environment. Therefore, promoting the green development of agriculture and achieving harmonious coexistence between agriculture and the ecological environment has become an important topic in the current development of agriculture. However, producers in the agricultural sector often face various challenges, including natural and market risks, on the path to green development in agriculture. Therefore, agricultural insurance, as an important financial means of agricultural risk management, has gradually attracted attention in the context of green development in agriculture. Gansu Province, a major agricultural province in the western region, has conducted agricultural insurance pilots in synchronization with the national effort since 2007 and has achieved significant development. Therefore, this paper measures the level of agricultural green development using Green Total Factor Productivity (abbreviated as GTFP), which incorporates comprehensive efficiency in both economic and ecological aspects. This study takes 14 cities and prefectures in Gansu Province as the research subjects to investigate how the development level of agricultural insurance in Gansu Province affects agricultural GTFP and its mechanism. This has great significance for achieving the dual carbon goals and provides a basis for promoting sustainable agricultural development in the western region.This holds great significance for achieving the double carbon goals and provides a basis for advancing the sustainable development of agriculture in the western region.

      This article first sorts out relevant research results on agricultural insurance and agricultural GTFP, and expounds the concepts of agricultural insurance and agricultural GTFP. Based on relevant theoretical foundations, it further analyzes the impact mechanism of agricultural insurance on agricultural GTFP. Next, the paper analyzes the current development status of agricultural insurance and agriculture in Gansu Province and its prefectures and cities. It constructs a comprehensive evaluation index system for agricultural insurance development from the perspectives of scale, compensation levels, and operational efficiency. Additionally, from a dual perspective of carbon emissions and carbon sequestration, an input-output index system for agricultural GTFP is established. Using entropy weight method and SBM-GML index model, the paper calculates the level of agricultural insurance development and the GML index and its decomposition items of agricultural GTFP in Gansu Province's prefectures and cities from 2007 to 2021, and analyzes the results. Finally, a two-way fixed-effects model is constructed to study the relationship between the development level of agricultural insurance in Gansu Province and agricultural GTFP as well as its decomposition terms. Based on this, the underlying influence mechanism is examined and analyzed, and a panel quantile regression model is used to conduct heterogeneity analysis. The research results indicate: (1) The level of agricultural insurance development inansu Province shows an overall upward trend, with two distinct time points of growth, and the development of agricultural insurance in most prefectures and cities remains at a low level. (2) The agricultural GTFP in Gansu Province presents a trend of fluctuating growth, and there are significant differences in the change ranges of agricultural GTFP among prefectures and cities. (3) The development of agricultural insurance in Gansu Province can promote the growth of agricultural GTFP, and the level of agricultural insurance development can enhance agricultural GTFP by expanding the scale of agricultural operations. However, in regions with different levels of agricultural GTFP, the promotional effect of the level of agricultural insurance development varies.

      Based on the research findings, the following recommendations are made: improving the agricultural insurance guarantee system, strengthening the establishment of agricultural insurance systems, Intensify the promotion of agricultural insurance and expand the scale of agricultural production and operation, promoting the combination of agricultural green technological innovation and agricultural insurance innovation, and increasing agricultural insurance subsidies for low-level regions of agricultural GTFP in Gansu Province.