金融学院知识库

近年来，我国不断加速推进保险行业发展，商业保险的发展日新月异，其规模已跃居全球首位。作为我国社会保障体系的重要补充和广大居民的重要保障来源，商业保险一直以自身发展助推经济社会的高质量发展。随着我国现代市场经济体制改革的步伐日益加快，居民的生活水平稳步提升，不断迈向新的高度。然而在这一过程中，我国居民的消费能力虽然不断提升，对于有效保险的实际需求却没有相应增长，导致商业保险参与度有限。这种商业保险的低参与度在微观上限制了家庭应对风险和管理财务的能力，在宏观上也影响了保险行业的进一步发展和扩大。因此，在消费能力日益上升、产品供给逐渐丰富的背景下，挖掘我国商业保险市场的“有限参与”现象的深层原因，能够进一步为我国商业保险市场的增长潜力提供线索。在商业保险的需求因素中，主观因素的作用越来越受到重视，婚姻，作为人类社会最基础的社会关系，其稳定性和幸福感对个体生活及国民经济具有深远的影响。婚姻幸福感，这一非理性因素，在社会发展中逐渐凸显其重要性，对居民生活品质和国民经济状况产生着不可忽视的作用。因此，我们不禁要探讨，婚姻幸福感是否会对家庭商业参与产生积极的影响？以家庭个体作为研究对象，探究婚姻幸福感对家庭商业保险参与的影响，理清二者之间产生影响的传导路径显得尤为重要。

本文基于马斯洛需求层次理论、前景理论和心理账户理论等多个理论框架，对婚姻幸福感与家庭商业保险参与之间的关联进行了深入探究。在实证分析方面，本文充分利用了中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）在2014年、2018年和2020年三年的问卷数据，采用双向固定效应模型和Probit模型，以家庭商业保险的参与程度与参与决策作为被解释变量进行了回归分析。此外，为了深入探究背后的作用机理，本研究进一步采用了中介效应模型作为分析工具，通过该模型对潜在的传导路径进行了详细的验证和考察，并从城乡差异和是否拥有子女的差异视角进行了异质性分析。实证结果发现：（1）婚姻幸福感与家庭对商业保险的参与程度、参与决策呈正向变动关系，家庭婚姻幸福感越高，则居民对于家庭商业保险的购买意愿越强烈，且家庭商业保险支出越大；（2）婚姻幸福感能够通过改变家庭的风险偏好，进而促进家庭商业保险支出（3）婚姻幸福感的提升能够通过增加社会信任，进而促进其对于家庭商业保险支出；（4）婚姻幸福感在城乡区域不同以及是否拥有子女的情况下促进作用也具有显著差异。

基于以上结论，为加快我国现代保险业的发展，本文对政府、保险企业以及个人分别提出了建议：政府应增强保险知识的宣传普及力度，以提升民众对保险的认识，在采取措施增进居民婚姻幸福感的同时，促进商业保险市场的繁荣与发展，以提升商业保险需求；企业应进行深入的市场调研与需求分析，根据居民家庭婚姻中的实际状况，创新设计出更具有针对性的保险产品，可以提供附加服务，通过提升保险供给的品质来进一步激发市场需求增长动力；而居民个体应深入认识婚姻关系的核心意义，重视婚姻幸福感所带来的影响并合理的利用和处理，注重家庭子女数量和城乡区域对自身家庭带来的影响。

In recent years, the state has spared no effort to promote the development of the insurance industry, and the development of commercial insurance in our country has changed with each new day, and the total amount has become the first place in the world. As an important supplement to China's social security system and an important source of protection for the majority of residents, commercial insurance should promote the high-quality development of economic society with its own high-quality development. With the accelerating pace of the reform of China's modern market economic system, the living standards of residents are also steadily improving and constantly moving to a new height. In this process, although the consumption power of Chinese residents continues to improve, the actual demand for effective insurance has not increased correspondingly, resulting in limited participation in commercial insurance. This low participation in commercial insurance has limited the ability of households to cope with risks and manage their finances at the micro level, while also affecting the further development and expansion of the insurance industry at the macro level. Therefore, under the background of increasing consumption power and abundant product supply, exploring many factors leading to the phenomenon of "limited participation" in China's commercial insurance market can further provide clues for the growth potential of China's commercial insurance market. In the demand factors of commercial insurance, the role of subjective factors has been paid more and more attention. Marriage, as the most basic social relationship in human society, has a profound impact on individual life and national economy with its stability and happiness. Marital happiness, an irrational factor, gradually highlights its importance in the social development, and plays a non-negligible role in the quality of life of residents and the state of the national economy. Therefore, we cannot help but explore whether marital happiness has a positive impact on family business participation. Therefore, taking individual families as research objects, it is particularly important to explore the relationship between marital happiness and family commercial insurance participation, and clarify the transmission path of the influence between them.

Based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs theory, prospect theory and mental account theory, this paper explores the relationship between marital happiness and family commercial insurance participation. In terms of empirical analysis, this paper makes full use of the questionnaire data of China Household Tracking Survey (CFPS) in 2014, 2018 and 2020, adopts two-way fixed effect model and Probit model, and conducts regression analysis with the participation depth and participation probability of family commercial insurance as explained variables. In addition, in order to further explore the underlying mechanism, this study further adopted the mediation effect model as an analytical tool to verify and investigate the potential transmission path in detail through this model, and analyzed the heterogeneity from the perspective of urban-rural differences and differences in having children. The empirical results show that: (1) Marriage happiness is positively correlated with the depth and probability of family participation in commercial insurance. The higher the family marriage happiness is, the stronger the intention of residents to purchase family commercial insurance and the greater the expenditure of family commercial insurance; (2) Marital happiness can promote the family's commercial insurance expenditure by changing the family's risk appetite; (3) The improvement of marital happiness can promote the family's commercial insurance expenditure by increasing social trust; (4) The promotion effect of marital happiness is also significantly different between urban and rural areas and whether there are children or not.

According to the above conclusions, it is necessary to make joint efforts to accelerate the development of modern insurance industry in our country. This paper puts forward suggestions to the government, insurance companies and individuals respectively. The government should strengthen the publicity and popularization of insurance knowledge to enhance people's understanding of insurance, and promote the growth of demand for commercial insurance market while enhancing the happiness of marriage. Enterprises should combine the actual situation of marriage problems, innovate and enrich the types of commercial insurance products, provide additional services, and further stimulate the growth momentum of market demand by improving the quality of insurance supply. Individual residents should have a deep understanding of the core meaning of marital relationship, pay attention to the impact of marital happiness and make reasonable use of and deal with it, and pay attention to the numberspan of children in the family and the impact of urban and rural areas on their families.