人口老龄化对地方政府债务的影响效应研究

作者	曹静娜
姓名汉语拼音	Cao Jingna
学号	2021000004036
培养单位	兰州财经大学
电话	19996209572
电子邮件	2199613560@qq.com
入学年份	2021-9
学位类别	学术硕士
培养级别	硕士研究生
学科门类	经济学
一级学科名称	应用经济学
学科方向	财政学
学科代码	020203
第一导师姓名	李永海
第一导师姓名汉语拼音	Li Yonghai
第一导师单位	兰州财经大学财政与税务学院
第一导师职称	副教授
题名	人口老龄化对地方政府债务的影响效应研究
英文题名	Research on the Impact of Population Aging on Local Government Debt
关键词	人口老龄化地方政府债务显性债务隐性债务
外文关键词	Aging of population ; Local government debt ; Explicit debt ; Hidden debt
摘要	根据 2020 年第七次全国人口普查结果，我国 60 岁及以上老年人口比重已经高达 18.7%，2023 年我国 60 岁及以上人口 29697 万人，占全国人口的 21.1%，其中 65 岁及以上人口 21676 万人，占全国人口的 15.4%，我国老年人口数量上升，出生率降低，使劳动力人口供应不足。老年人口占比不断增加这一现象在未来对我国的经济会产生不可避免的影响，加之人口老龄化负面影响覆盖范围广，对地方政府产生了一定的挑战，人口结构改变，直接影响了地方政府财政收支，会加剧地方政府债务的增长。根据中华人民共和国财政部公布的数据，截至 2023 年 12 月末，我国地方政府债务余额 407373 亿元，控制在全国人大批准的限额之内。因此，如何缓解人口老龄化对地方政府债务影响是防范化解地方政府债务风险的必由之路。基于以上背景，本文在梳理了现有文献的基础上分析了人口老龄化与地方政府债务相关的理论依据即跨期预算约束理论、世代交叠模型理论和债务风险理论，通过分析人口老龄化和地方政府债务的现状，基于现有的研究成果，进一步探究财政支出角度下人口老龄化影响地方政府债务的作用机理。其次，采取将地方政府债务细分的方法，分别研究人口老龄化对于显性债务和隐性债务的影响机制，并通过建立中介效应模型验证各路径对地方政府显性债务和隐性债务的影响。最后，得出人口老龄化显著扩大了地方政府债务、显性债务和隐性债务，以及人口老龄化通过公共服务支出、公共投资支出以及社保支出加大了地方政府债务的实证结果。从人口老龄化对地方政府债务影响路径出发，提出强化财税助力，完善养老保险体系、扩宽地方财源，健全地方税体系、转变经济发展方式，避免过度举债、完善财政分权体制，优化地方债务管理体系的政策建议。
英文摘要	According to the results of the seventh national population census in 2020, the proportion of elderly people aged 60 and above in China has reached 18.7%. In 2023, there were 29.697 million people aged 60 and above in China, accounting for 21.1% of the national population. Among them, there were 21.676 million people aged 65 and above, accounting for 15.4% of the national population. The number of elderly people in China has increased, and the birth rate has decreased, resulting in a shortage of labor force. The phenomenon of the increasing proportion of elderly population will inevitably have an impact on China's economy in the future. In addition, the negative impact of population aging covers a wide range, posing certain challenges to local governments. The change in population structure directly affects local government fiscal revenue and expenditure, which will exacerbate the growth of local government debt. According to data released by the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China, as of the end of December 2023, the balance of local government debt in China was 40737.3 billion yuan, controlled within the limit approved by the National People's Congress. Therefore, how to alleviate the impact of population aging on local government debt is the only way to prevent and resolve the risks of local government debt. Based on the above background, this article analyzes the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging and local government debt, including the cross period budget constraint theory, generational overlap model theory, and debt risk theory, based on a review of existing literature. By analyzing the current situation of population aging and local government debt, and based on existing research results, it further explores the mechanism of the impact of population aging on local government debt from the perspective of fiscal expenditure. Secondly, the method of subdividing local government debt is adopted to study the impact mechanism of population aging on explicit and implicit debt, and to verify the impact of each path on local government explicit and implicit debt by establishing an intermediary effect model. Finally, the empirical results show that population aging significantly expands local government debt, explicit debt, and implicit debt, as well as that population aging increases local government debt through public service expenditure, public investment expenditure, and social security expenditure. Starting from the impact of population aging on local government debt, policy recommendations are proposed to strengthen financial and tax assistance, improve the pension insurance system, expand local financial resources, improve the local tax system, transform the economic development mode, avoid excessive borrowing, improve the fiscal decentralization system, and optimize the local debt management system.
学位类型	硕士
答辩日期	2024-05-26
学位授予地点	甘肃省兰州市
语种	中文
论文总页数	78
参考文献总数	116
馆藏号	005725
保密级别	公开
中图分类号	F81/87
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/36894
专题	财税与公共管理学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	曹静娜. 人口老龄化对地方政府债务的影响效应研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2024.

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