会计学院知识库

近年来，中国市场经济发展迅速，商业竞争日益激烈。对于面临资本市场强大竞争压力的上市公司来说，通过并购活动可以快速延长产业链从而实现迅速扩张、完成多方向的业务拓展、优化和完善公司原有结构，在降低时间成本的同时增加公司的市场价值。在企业合并与重组的实践中，由于信息不透明可能导致对被收购方的估值评估偏差，为保障中小投资者权益，政府实施了业绩承诺制度。然而，有些企业为追求高估值，可能会作出过于乐观的业绩保证，从而对企业运营产生压力，为实现这些保证，财务操纵行为可能滋生，进一步增加了审计的风险。近年来，审计中的利润操纵和利益转移现象在并购交易中日益增多，最终这些风险也将转嫁给注册会计师。因此，研究业绩承诺在并购中引发的审计风险具有重要意义。

在梳理了学者的研究观点、理论和方法的基础上，本文选取立信会计师事务所在宁波东力收购年富供应链时进行审计的案例为例，探讨业绩承诺下的审计风险。首先，概述宁波东力与年富供应链签订业绩保证协议的整个过程；其次，运用等级全息建模（HHM）技术，结合并购全程和业绩承诺的不同阶段特性，构建决策矩阵，并结合层次分析法（AHP）确定各指标权重，以此评估审计风险；然后，基于模型评估结果和业绩承诺下的风险传递机制，从重大错报风险和检查风险两个层面深入剖析业绩失诺可能导致的审计风险；最后，针对前期分析中揭示的问题，提出相应的应对策略。

经过案例研究，本文认为业绩承诺机制能够一定程度上保障并购有效实施，同时其带来的风险也能够直接导致资产重组失败，并购双方均应加强对风险的识别，有针对性的制定对策，进而降低业绩承诺风险的影响。

In recent years, China's market economy has developed rapidly, leading to increasingly fierce business competition. For listed companies facing strong competition pressures in the capital market, mergers and acquisitions (M&A) can be a rapid way to extend the industrial chain, achieve rapid expansion, diversify business directions, optimize and improve the company's original structure, while reducing time costs and enhancing the company's market value. However, in the practice of corporate mergers and restructuring, information asymmetry may lead to deviations in valuation assessments of the acquired party. To protect the rights and interests of small and medium investors, the government has implemented a performance commitment system. Nevertheless, some companies may make overly optimistic performance guarantees in pursuit of higher valuations, which can put pressure on their operations and potentially lead to financial manipulation, further increasing audit risks. In recent years, the phenomena of profit manipulation and interest transfer in audits have been increasing in M&A transactions, ultimately transferring these risks to certified public accountants. Therefore, studying the audit risks triggered by performance commitments in M&A is of significant importance.

Based on a review of scholars' research perspectives, theories, and methods, this paper selects the audit case of Lixin Accounting Firm during Ningbo Dongli's acquisition of Nianfu Supply Chain as an example to explore audit risks under performance commitments. Firstly, it outlines the entire process of Ningbo Dongli and Nianfu Supply Chain signing the performance guarantee agreement. Secondly, using the Hierarchical Holographic Modeling (HHM) technique, combined with the characteristics of different stages of the M&A process and performance commitments, a decision-making matrix is constructed. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is then used to determine the weights of each indicator for assessing audit risks. Then, based on the model's assessment results and the risk transmission mechanism under performance commitments, the audit risks potentially caused by performance failures are deeply analyzed from the perspectives of material misstatement risks and detection risks. Finally, corresponding countermeasures are proposed to address the issues revealed in the preliminary analysis.

Through the case study, this paper argues that the performance commitment mechanism can, to a certain extent, ensure the effective implementation of mergers and acquisitions. At the same time, the risks it brings can directly lead to the failure of asset restructuring. Both parties to the M&A should strengthen risk identification, formulate targeted countermeasures, and thus reduce the impact of performance commitment risks.