国际经济与贸易学院知识库

近年来，全球生产性服务贸易占服务贸易的比重逐年增加，生产性服务业的国际分工地位进一步提升。RCEP各成员国在协定中对生产性服务领域的开放作出了高级别承诺，协定的全面生效会进一步促进区域内贸易。但中国的生产性服务贸易存在大而不强的问题，想要在区域内市场获得持续的出口竞争力，需要提高对成员国生产性服务的出口质量和出口效率。

因此，本文选取2006-2021年中国与RCEP成员国生产性服务相关贸易数据，首先，分析中国向成员国出口生产性服务的规模与结构，发现中国对成员国生产性服务出口贸易呈现规模增加、但结构失衡的特征。其次，测算中国的生产性服务贸易出口技术复杂度，并与RCEP成员国进行对比分析，发现我国出口技术复杂度数值虽逐渐增加，但出口技术内涵仍然较低，呈现依靠低技术服务拉动发展的特点；同时，中国生产性服务出口技术含量不仅与发达经济体相比处于相对劣势，与RCEP成员中的发展中经济体相比也不具有优势。

在此基础上，采用随机前沿引力模型对我国对RCEP成员国生产性服务出口贸易进行实证分析，发现中国和RCEP成员国GDP增长、拥有共同语言均促进我国对其出口生产性服务，而人口规模越大、拥有共同边界、地理距离越远，显著抑制我国对成员国生产性服务出口额的增长。通过贸易非效率模型回归结果分析发现，RCEP国家加大人力资本投入、投资和贸易自由化程度越高、区域合作水平越高，均能显著提升中国对RCEP成员国生产性服务的出口效率，越有利于我国向其出口生产性服务；而我国生产性服务出口技术含量提升会降低对RCEP成员国的出口效率。从中国对RCEP各成员国的生产性服务出口效率和潜力来看，中国对澳大利亚、日本、韩国和新西兰四个发达经济体和印度尼西亚、菲律宾、泰国、越南四个发展中经济体出口效率较大，中国对其出口规模能够通过提质增效以实现进一步增长；而对泰国、澳大利亚和新加坡贸易可拓展空间狭窄，对老挝贸易拓展空间极大，但是出口贸易潜力非常小且出口效率低下，这对于中国生产性服务出口的意义有限。最后，依据上述结论，为中国提高对RCEP成员国生产性服务的出口效率提供相关对策与建议。

In recent years, the proportion of global productive service trade in service trade has been increasing year by year, and the international division of labor position of productive service industry has been further enhanced. RCEP member countries have made high-level commitments in the agreement to open up the field of productive services, and the full implementation of the agreement will further promote intra-regional trade. However, China's productive service trade has a problem of being large but not strong. To achieve sustained export competitiveness in the regional market, it is necessary to improve the export quality and efficiency of productive services to member states.

Therefore, this paper selects the trade data related to productive services between China and RCEP member states from 2006 to 2021. Firstly, it analyzes the scale and structure of China's export of productive services to RCEP member states, and finds that China's export trade of productive services to RCEP member countries shows an increase in scale but an imbalance in structure. Secondly, the technical complexity of China's export of productive services trade is measured and compared with that of RCEP member states. It is found that although the technical complexity of China's export is gradually increasing, the technical connotation of export is still low, showing the characteristics of relying on low-tech services to drive development. At the same time, the technical content of China's productive service exports is not only at a relative disadvantage compared with developed economies, but also does not have an advantage compared with developing economies in RCEP states.

On this basis, a stochastic frontier gravity model was used to empirically analyze China's export of productive services to RCEP member states. It was found that GDP growth and sharing a common language between China and RCEP member states all promote China's export of productive services to them. However, the larger the population size, the more common the boundary, and the farther the geographical distance, the significantly suppressed the growth of China's export of productive services to member countries. Through the analysis of trade inefficiency model regression results, it was found that increasing human capital investment, investment, and trade liberalization in RCEP countries, as well as regional cooperation levels, can significantly improve China's export efficiency of productive services to RCEP member states, which is more conducive to China's export of productive services to them; The increase in the technological content of China's export of productive services will reduce the export efficiency to RCEP member states. From the perspective of China's efficiency and potential in exporting productive services to RCEP member states, it can be seen that China's export efficiency to four developed economies, namely Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand, as well as four developing economies, namely Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, is relatively high. China's export scale can achieve further growth by improving quality and efficiency; However, the expansion space for trade with Thailand, Australia, and Singapore is narrow, while the expansion space for trade with Laos is enormous. However, the potential for export trade is very small and the export efficiency is low, which has limited significance for China's export of productive services. Finally, based on the above conclusions, provide relevant measures and suggestions for China to improve the export efficiency of productive services to RCEP member states.