国际经济与贸易学院知识库

纵观改革开放后的前30年，外循环的地位持续提升，在促进增长、结构调整和技术进步等方面发挥了重要作用。在此期间，我国参与全球价值链分工的红利持续释放，生产规模不断增加，我国逐渐成为全球价值链分工的核心区域之一，并在持续的规模优势推动下形成超大规模市场优势。在积极参与全球分工对我国市场规模产生持续促进作用下，全球价值链攀升是否能够推动我国市场规模提升，强化我国超大规模市场优势，该问题的研究有利于促进深化供给侧结构性改革与扩大有效需求协同发力，加快推进新发展格局形成。
基于此，本文首先在梳理文献的基础上，运用新经济地理学、“微笑曲线”理论等相关知识，对研究问题提出基础假设，并从产业集聚和贸易方式转型两条途径提出了可能的影响机制，进一步考虑了国内市场统一性在其中可能发挥的作用。其次，本文使用2002-2014年的中国工企—海关匹配数据库、各城市统计年鉴和WIOD版世界投入产出数据库，构建固定效应模型，从产出供应链和投入需求链视角考察了城市全球价值链位置变化对国内市场规模的影响，使用变量替换和工具变量等方法进行了内生性和稳健性检验，基于城市区位优势、外贸差异等特性进行了异质性分析，还采用调节效应模型检验了前文提出的两条影响路径。最后，通过中介效应检验模型分析了国内市场统一性的可能影响。
研究发现：城市实现全球价值链攀升可以促进扩大国内市场规模的，经过内生性和稳健性检验后，该结论依旧成立，且供应链上游化对中部地区、沿海地区的市场规模扩张有更明显的促进作用，需求链下游化的影响则主要作用于西部地区，两者都对外贸依存度较低地区市场发展有显著作用。机制检验表明，全球价值链位置攀升可以通过促进本地产业集聚和出口贸易方式转型来促进国内市场规模扩大。中介效应检验显示，市场统一性的提高能增强全球价值链位置攀升对扩大国内市场规模的促进作用，比如基础设施水平提高、劳动力市场流通加强等。最后，在实证研究结果基础上，从国家、城市层面提出实现价值链攀升与国内市场规模扩大双目标的可行政策建议，如高水平对外开放、因地制宜发展、推动出口贸易方式转型和区域协调发展。

Throughout the first 30 years after the reform and opening up, the status of external circulation has continued to rise, playing an important role in promoting growth, structural adjustment, and technological progress. During this period, the dividends of China's participation in the global value chain division of labor continued to be released, and the production scale continued to increase. China gradually became one of the core regions that in the global value chain division of labor, and under the continuous promotion of scale advantages, it formed a super large-scale market advantage. Under the continuous promoting effect of actively participating in global division of labor on the size of China's market, whether the climb of the global value chain can promote the increase of China's market size and strengthen the advantage of China's super large market. The research on this issue is conducive to promoting the deepening of supply side structural reform and the expansion of effective demand, and accelerating the formation of the new development pattern.
Based on this, this article first reviews the literature and applies relevant knowledge such as New Economic Geography and the "Smile Curve" theory to propose basic hypotheses for the research question. It also proposes possible impact mechanisms from the perspectives of industrial agglomeration and trade mode transformation, and considers the regulatory role that domestic market unity may play in it. Then, this article used the China Industry Enterprise Customs Matching Database from 2002 to 2014, various city statistical yearbooks, and the WIOD version of the World Input Output Database to examine the impact of changes in the global value chain position of cities on domestic market size from the perspectives of output supply chain and input demand chain. Endogeneity and robustness tests were conducted using variable substitution and instrumental variables, and further analysis was conducted based on characteristics such as urban location advantages and foreign trade differences. Finally, a mediation effect test was conducted on the two impact paths proposed earlier, and a moderating effect test was conducted on the possible impact of domestic uniformity.
Research has found that cities can promote the expansion of domestic market size through the upstream of output supply chains and downstream of input demand chains. The upstream of supply chains has a more significant promoting effect on the expansion of market size in central and coastal regions, while the downstream of demand chains mainly affects the western region. Both have a significant impact on the development of markets in regions with lower dependence on foreign trade. Further testing indicates that the climb in the global value chain position can promote the expansion of domestic market size by promoting local industrial agglomeration and the transformation of export trade methods. In addition, the improvement of market uniformity related factors can enhance the promotion effect of global value chain position climbing on expanding domestic market size, such as improving infrastructure level, strengthening labor market circulation, and strengthening commodity market flow. Finally, based on the empirical research results, feasible policy recommendations are proposed at the national and urban levels to achieve the dual goals of climbing the value chain and expanding the domestic market size, such as high-level opening up to the outside world, tailored development, promoting the transformation of export trade methods, and regional coordinated development.