金融学院知识库

党的二十大报告中强调指出要加快数字经济的发展，促进数字经济和实体经济深度融合，并提出要完善农业支持保护制度，健全农村金融服务体系，实现农村经济快速发展，全面推进乡村振兴。在推动农村经济发展的过程中，当前仍存在一些亟需解决的问题，其中农村资金外流依旧是城乡经济协调发展的重要问题之一。在此背景之下，数字金融的发展呈现出普惠的特性，其拥有着门槛与成本双低的特点，能够更全面的为农村金融弱势群体提供服务，提升农村资金利用效率，进而减轻我国经济发展的不平衡与不充分问题。

本文从县域行政单元这一微观主体角度出发，以农村地区资金外流为研究对象，以2014—2021 年我国 1400 个县域行政单元非平衡面板数据为基础，利用固定效应模型研究数字金融对农村资金外流的影响，并据此对缓解农村资金的外流提出建议。全文共分为六章：第一章为绪论。阐述本文的研究背景及研究意义，并对相关文献进行回顾和梳理；提出本文的主要研究方法和研究内容，并对本文的可能创新点与不足作出总结。第二章为数字金融对农村资金外流影响的理论分析。主要对数字金融、农村资金外流相关概念进行界定，并对研究的相关理论及推动消费升级、改善基础设施、提高金融资源配置效率的三方面影响机理进行阐述。第三章对农村外流现状的分析和农村资金外流指标的测度和构建。第四章为数字金融对农村资金外流影响的实证设计及变量的选择。第五章为数字金融对农村资金外流的实证检验，包括异质性检验、稳健性检验及影响机制检验。第六章为研究结论与启示。对实证结果进行总结，厘清在数字金融的影响下，农村资金外流压力的变化，并根据实证结果提出简要建议。

本文主要研究结论如下：第一，总体上数字金融的发展将会缓解农村地区的资金外流压力，经过稳健性检验和内生性处理的结果依然支持这一结论；第二，分维度来看，数字金融的覆盖广度、使用深度和数字化程度都能抑制我国农村资金的外流；第三，从区域经济异质性角度来看，数字金融的发展对东部地区农村资金外流的缓解作用要优于中西部地区。从人口发展规模异质性来看，数字金融的发展对较大人口规模地区农村资金外流的缓解效果要更强，而较低规模地区农村的作用稍逊。从农村居民收入异质性来看，数字金融对高收入县域地区农村资金外流的抑制效果要强于较低收入县域地区。从市场化和法治水平异质性来看，数字金融对高市场化和法治水平县域地区农村资金外流的缓解作用更明显；第四，机制检验中发现，数字金融的发展可以通过升级农村居民消费结构、改善农村基础设施、提升农村金融资源配置效率来缓解农村资金的外溢。

The report of the twentieth CPC National Congress stresses the need to accelerate the development of the digital economy and promote the deep integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and proposes that the agricultural support and protection system should be improved, the rural financial service system should be perfected, the rural economy should be developed rapidly, and the revitalisation of the countryside should be pushed forward in an all-round manner. In the process of promoting the development of the rural economy, there are still some urgent problems that need to be solved, among which the outflow of rural capital remains one of the important problems in the coordinated development of urban and rural economies. In this context, the development of digital finance presents the characteristics of inclusive, which has the characteristics of low threshold and cost, and can provide services for the rural financial disadvantaged groups in a more comprehensive way, enhance the efficiency of rural capital utilisation, and then alleviate the imbalance and insufficiency of China's economic development.

This paper starts from the perspective of the micro subject of county administrative units, takes the outflow of funds from rural areas as the research object, based on the unbalanced panel data of 1,400 county administrative units in China from 2014 to 2021, and uses the fixed-effects model to study the impact of digital finance on the outflow of funds from rural areas, and puts forward suggestions to alleviate the outflow of funds from rural areas accordingly. The whole paper is divided into six chapters: the first chapter is the introduction. It describes the research background and research significance of this paper, and reviews and combs the related literature; puts forward the main research method and research content of this paper, and makes a summary of the possible innovations and shortcomings of this paper. Chapter 2 is the theoretical analysis of the impact of digital finance on rural capital outflow. It mainly defines the concepts related to digital finance and rural outflow, and elaborates on the relevant theories of the study and the three-pronged impact mechanism of promoting consumption upgrading, improving infrastructure, and enhancing the efficiency of financial resource allocation. The third chapter analyses the current situation of rural outflow and measures and constructs indicators of rural capital outflow. Chapter 4 is the empirical design of the impact of digital finance on rural outflow and the selection of variables. Chapter 5 is the empirical test of digital finance on rural outflow, including heterogeneity test, robustness test and impact mechanism test. Chapter 6 is the research conclusions and insights. The empirical results are summarised to clarify the changes in the pressure of rural capital outflow under the influence of digital finance, and brief suggestions are made based on the empirical results.

The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows: first, overall the development of digital finance will alleviate the pressure of capital outflow in rural areas, and the results of the robustness test and endogeneity treatment still support this conclusion; second, in terms of subdimensions, the breadth of coverage, depth of use and degree of digitisation of digital finance can inhibit the outflow of capital from China's rural areas; third, in terms of the regional economic heterogeneity, the digital financial development has a better mitigating effect on rural capital outflow in the eastern region than in the central and western regions. From the perspective of population development scale heterogeneity, the development of digital finance has a stronger mitigating effect on rural capital outflow in regions with larger population sizes, while the effect in rural areas with lower sizes is slightly weaker. From the perspective of rural residents' income heterogeneity, the inhibiting effect of digital finance on rural capital outflows in high-income county areas is stronger than that in lower-income county areas. In terms of heterogeneity in the level of marketisation and rule of law, the mitigating effect of digital finance on rural capital outflows is more pronounced in counties with high levels of marketisation and rule of law; fourthly, it is found in the mechanism test that the development of digital finance can mitigate rural capital spillovers by upgrading the consumption structure of rural residents, improving rural infrastructure, and upgrading the efficiency of rural financial resource allocation.