统计与数据科学学院知识库

进入21世纪，特别是国际金融危机之后，全球形势发生变化，世界经济发展压力增大，贸易保护主义泛起，同时我国经济总量跃居世界第二，内需对经济增长的贡献率不断提升，面对国际形势的变化和内需作用的逐渐体现，我国需要制定新的策略参与经济全球化，为此党的十九届五中全会提出，要加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局。构建内外循环的新发展格局核心是促进经济活动的畅通和连续，包括国内各个环节、产业、部门、区域之间的畅通，也包括国内与国外的经济联通，同时避免经济活动中断和分割，以此来参与经济全球化。为了新发展格局更快形成，中共中央国务院下发构建全国统一大市场的意见，以建设全国统一大市场来服务并加快新发展格局的形成。

本文以新发展格局和全国统一大市场为研究对象，将建设全国统一大市场视为新发展格局形成的基础支撑和内在要求，因此挖掘全国统一大市场对新发展格局形成的赋能机理是推进统一大市场建设、促进双循环新发展格局形成的基础。文章首先从内循环和外循环双方面定量评价新发展格局形成的水平，同时从市场底层建设、市场要素建设和市场优化建设三维度构建全国统一大市场的指标评价体系，并进行测度，深入分析两者的发展现状；其次结合新结构经济学理论从直接和间接两方面阐述统一大市场赋能新发展格局形成的理论机制；最后利用2013-2020年中国省际面板数据实证考察了全国统一大市场对新发展格局形成的赋能机制与影响效应，分析赋能效果的异质性特点，同时也进一步验证了建设全国统一大市场对内外双循环耦合协调度水平的提升作用。研究结果表明：一，从整体上看，我国新发展格局形成水平和全国统一大市场建设水平在不断提高，但不同区域之间还存在差异；二，全国统一大市场能够显著赋能新发展格局的形成，还能畅通内循环和外循环发展水平，但影响效果在不同时间、区域、维度、发展水平上存在明显的异质性；三，以内循环和外循环的耦合协调度来说明问题时，全国统一大市场同样能够对新发展格局中内外循环协调水平的提高产生显著的正向效应，而且随着内循环占比的增加，促进效果越发明显。文章的边际贡献在于在量化新发展格局和全国统一大市场的水平基础上，剖析了后者影响前者的作用机理，并为全国统一大市场赋能新发展格局的研究提供了理论依据，也为分阶段、分区域、有重点建设统一大市场提供了参考，同时本文也验证了“以国内大循环为主体”的要求。

根据上述研究结果，本文提出相应政策建议，包括政府应继续加强“中部崛起”“都市圈”“经济带”等政策的实施，做到发达地区带动欠发达地区，东部继续辐射西部，高水平地区引领周边的效果；大力推进全国统一大市场的建设，有效结合“有效市场”和“有为政府”，畅通内外循环，赋能新发展格局形成；在推进统一大市场以赋能新发展格局形成过程中，要秉承“以国内大循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促进”的总体格局要求，分区域、分阶段、有重点建设统一大市场。

In the 21st century, especially after the international financial crisis, the global situation has changed, the pressure of world economic development has increased, and trade protectionism has arisen. Meanwhile, China's economic aggregate has risen to the second place in the world, and the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth has been increasing. Facing the changes of the international situation and the gradual reflection of the role of domestic demand, China needs to formulate new strategies to participate in economic globalization. To this end, the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee proposed to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with the major domestic cycle as the main body and the double domestic and international cycles promoting each other. The core of building a new development pattern of internal and external circulation is to promote the unimpeded and continuous economic activities, including the unimpeded domestic links, industries, departments and regions, as well as the economic connectivity between domestic and foreign countries, while avoiding the interruption and segmentation of economic activities, so as to participate in economic globalization. In order to form the new development pattern faster, the CPC Central Committee and The State Council issued the opinions on building a unified national market to serve and accelerate the formation of the new development pattern.

This paper takes the new development pattern and the national unified market as the research object, and regards the construction of the national unified market as the basic support and internal requirement for the formation of the new development pattern. Firstly, this paper quantitatively evaluates the level of the new development pattern from the aspects of internal circulation and external circulation, and at the same time constructs the index evaluation system of the national unified large market from the three dimensions of market bottom construction, market element construction and market optimization construction, and conducts measurement to deeply analyze the development status of the two. Secondly, combined with the theory of new structural economics, it expounds the theoretical mechanism of the formation of the new development pattern of the unified large market enabling from the direct and indirect aspects. Finally, using China's provincial panel data from 2013 to 2020, this paper empirically examines the enabling mechanism and influence effect of the national unified market on the formation of the new development pattern, analyzes the heterogeneity characteristics of the enabling effect, and further validates the role of the construction of the national unified market in improving the level of internal and external double cycle coupling coordination degree. The results show that: first, on the whole, the formation level of the new development pattern and the construction level of the national unified market are constantly improving, but there are still differences among different regions; Second, the unified national market can significantly enable the formation of a new development pattern, and smooth the development level of internal circulation and external circulation. However, there are obvious heterogeneity in the impact effect at different times, regions, dimensions and development levels. Third, when the coupling coordination degree of internal circulation and external circulation is used to illustrate the problem, the unified national market can also have a significant positive effect on the improvement of the coordination level of internal and external circulation in the new development pattern, and with the increase of the proportion of internal circulation, the promotion effect becomes more and more obvious. The marginal contribution of this paper is to analyze the mechanism of the latter influencing the former on the basis of quantifying the level of the new development pattern and the unified national market, and provide a theoretical basis for the study of the new development pattern of the unified national market, and also provide a reference for the construction of the unified national market by stages, regions and focuses. At the same time, this paper also verifies the requirement of "taking domestic circulation as the main body".

According to the above research results, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions, including that the government should continue to strengthen the implementation of policies such as "the rise of central China", "metropolitan circle" and "economic belt", so as to achieve the effect that the developed regions drive the less developed regions, the east continues to radiate the west, and the high-level regions lead the surrounding regions; We will vigorously promote the development of a unified national market, effectively combine "efficient market" with "effective government", smooth internal and external circulation, and enable the formation of a new pattern of development; In the process of promoting the formation of a new development pattern of enabling a unified market, we should adhere to the overall pattern requirements of "taking the major domestic cycle as the main body, and the double domestic and international cycles promote each other", and build a unified market by region, stage and focus.