统计与数据科学学院知识库

“双循环”新发展格局是我国政府根据经济发展内外部环境变化提出的伟大战略构想。价值链是“双循环”新发展格局体系构建的核心所在，并且，构建新发展格局必须具备强大的国内经济循环体系和稳固的基本盘，即国内大循环是“双循环”的坚实基础。因此国内价值链的构建和完善对实现“双循环”发展格局意义重大。我国制造业空间分布不均衡，降低和限制了国内价值链重构的效率、空间，产业转移作为实现区际分工的主要途径之一，不仅对推动区域协调发展意义重大，而且是推动国内价值链重构的关键动力。本文尝试对我国区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的路径、机制及结果进行探索，以飨决策。

文章首先通过对已有研究和理论的梳理，明晰了研究视角的可行性和合理性；其次，梳理分析了区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的路径，从内部作用路径出发构建了理论模型，阐述了区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的内在机制；接着，利用我国省际分行业制造业数据和区域非竞争型投入产出表数据，全面分析了我国区际产业转移和国内价值链发展演化的特征；进一步地，对我国区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的实际和机制进行了实证检验、异质性分析，对区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的效率进行了评价分析；最后，测算分析各地区参与国内价值链重构的综合能力，明晰我国区际产业转移推动价值链重构的路径提升机制。全文的研究应用了指数构建、投入产出分析、GAM模型、面板回归模型、交互项回归模型和综合评价等统计分析方法，主要研究结论如下：

（1）理论上，区际产业转移可通过提升基础设施建设互联互通水平、政府社会治理创新、资源匹配和技术匹配等内外部作用路径推动国内价值链重构。其中内部作用路径包含的机制为：区际产业转移可通过降低生产资源与生产环节、技术与生产环节的错配程度，降低分离成本，推动各区域技术水平提升和生产边界扩展，助推国内价值链实现垂直重构和水平重构。

（2）我国制造业由东部向中、西部转移趋势明显，中部地区是劳动和资本密集型制造业转移重点区域，西部西南地区主要承接了劳动密集型制造业转移，而西北地区源于自身资源优势在部分资本密集型行业承接能力突出，技术密集型制造业有进一步向东部集聚之势。

（3）除劳动密集型制造业外，我国资本、技术密集型制造业国内价值链嵌入度、嵌入位置和价值链长度表现为东部大于中、西部地区，且区域内存在明显异质性。在研究时段，各行业价值链嵌入度上升趋势明显，但价值链嵌入位置和长度方面，受去产能和制造业新旧动能转换的影响，资本密集型制造业行业多呈现出位置下降和长度缩短之势。中、西部劳动密集型制造业国内价值链长度多表现出延伸发展态势，长三角各地区技术密集型制造业国内价值链嵌入位置提升和长度延伸趋势明显，珠三角、成渝地区技术密集型制造业国内价值链长度也具有明显延伸趋势。

（4）现阶段，我国区际产业转移能够推动国内价值链在垂直方向上重构，提升各地区价值链位置和价值链嵌入度，同时也能推动国内价值链在在水平方向上重构，延伸价值链长度。并且，我国区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的作用呈现出了一定的行业异质性、区域异质性和嵌入方向异质性。我国区际产业转移通过资源匹配、技术匹配重构国内价值链的内在机制存在，但缘于我国当前区际产业转移实际，区际产业转移通过影响劳动要素匹配助推国内价值链垂直重构作用显著，而通过影响资本要素匹配助推国内价值垂直重构的作用并不显著。

（5）我国区际产业转移提升国内价值链重构效率的作用显著，有利于推进国内价值链有效衔接或更深层次嵌入全球价值链，并且该作用存在显著的行业和区域异质性，劳动密集型产业区际转移提升其国内价值链重构效率的作用明显强于资本和技术密集型产业，区际产业转移提升中、西部地区国内价值链重构效率的作用明显强于东部地区。

（6）我国各省参与国内价值链重构的整体能力水平较低，但市场支撑能力优势明显，整体上东部各省参与国内价值链重构的能力强于中、西部地区，尤其是西北地区，长三角地区的能力普遍强于其他城市群，珠三角次之，成渝城市群能力提升比较显著。

根据上述结论，文章进一步提出从政策牵引、创新驱动、设施保障和消费驱动四个方面出发提升各省参与国内价值链重构能力，可以围绕“制定国家层面产业转移和国内价值链重构战略规划” “创造有利于产业转移和国内价值链重构高水平对外开放环境” “建设能力更强的产业承接和价值链环节生产基地”“建设、完善更有利于产品和生产要素空间流动的物流体系与交通基础设施”四条路径机制，提升区际产业转移推动国内价值链重构的作用。

The new development pattern of “double-thrust” is a great strategic conception put forward by the Chinese government according to the changes in the internal and external environment of economic development. The value chain is the core of the construction of the new development pattern system of “double-thrust”, and the construction of the new development pattern must have a strong domestic economic cycle system and a stable basic plate. In other words, the domestic great cycle is the solid foundation of the “double-thrust”. Therefore, the construction and improvement of national value chain is of great significance to realize the new development pattern. The unbalanced spatial distribution of Chinese manufacturing industry reduces and limits the efficiency and space of national value chain reconstruction. Industrial transfer, industrial transfer is not only of great significance to promote regional coordinated development, but also the key driving force to promote domestic value chain reconstruction. This paper attempts to explore the path, mechanism and results of national value chain reconstruction promoted by China’s inter-regional industrial transfer, for the purpose of decision-making.

Firstly, the feasibility and rationality of the research perspective are clarified by combing the existing researches and theories. Secondly, the paper analyzes the path of inter-regional industry transfer to promote the reconstruction of national value chain, constructs a theoretical model from the internal action path, and expounds the internal mechanism of inter-regional industry transfer to promote the reconstruction of national value chain. Then, using the data of provincial manufacturing industry and regional non-competitive input-output table, the characteristics of industrial transfer and the development and evolution of national value chain are comprehensively analyzed. Furthermore, the empirical test and heterogeneity analysis of the practice and mechanism of national value chain reconfiguration promoted by interregional industry transfer were conducted, and the efficiency of reconfiguration promoted by inter-regional industry transfer was evaluated and analyzed. Finally, the comprehensive ability of each region to participate in the national value chain reconstruction is measured and analyzed, and the path improvement mechanism of the value chain reconstruction promoted by the inter-regional industry transfer is clarified. Statistical analysis methods such as index construction, input-output analysis, GAM model, panel regression model, interactive regression model and comprehensive evaluation are applied in this paper. The main research conclusions are as follows.

(1) Theoretically, inter-regional industrial transfer can promote the reconstruction of national value chain by improving the connectivity level of infrastructure construction, innovation of government social governance, resource matching and technology matching. The mechanism of internal action path is as follows: inter-regional industrial transfer can reduce the separation cost by reducing the mismatch between production resources and production links, technology and production links, promote the improvement of regional technical level and the expansion of production boundary, and finally promote the vertical and horizontal reconstruction of national value chain.

(2) There is an obvious trend of the manufacturing industry transferring from the east to the middle and west region in our country. The middle region is the key area of the transfer of labor and capital-intensive manufacturing industry, the west and southwest region mainly undertake the transfer of labor-intensive manufacturing, while the northwest region has outstanding capacity to undertake some capital-intensive industries due to its own resource advantages, and the technology-intensive manufacturing industry has the potential to further gather to the east.

(3) Except for the labor-intensive manufacturing industry, the embedment degree, embedment location and value chain length of the national value chain of the capital and technology-intensive manufacturing industry are greater in the eastern region than in the central and western regions, and there is obvious heterogeneity within the region. During the study period, the value chain embedment degree of various industry shows an obvious upward trend. However, in terms of the embedding position and length of the value chain, the capital-intensive manufacturing industry mostly shows a tendency of declining and shortening due to the impact of overcapacity reduction and the transformation of old and new driving forces in manufacturing industry. The length of the value chain of labor-intensive manufacturing in central and western regions shows a trend of extension. The national value chain of the technology-intensive manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Delta regions has an obvious trend of improving the embedding position and extending the length. The national value chain length of the technology-intensive manufacturing industry in the Pearl River Delta, Chengdu-Chongqing region also has an obvious trend of extending.

(4) At the present stage, China's inter-regional industrial transfer can promote the vertical reconstruction of the national value chain, improve the location and embeddedness of the value chain in each region, and also promote the horizontal reconstruction of the national value chain and extend the length of the value chain. Moreover, the role of inter-regional industry transfer in promoting the reconstruction of national value chain presents certain heterogeneity in industry, region and embedding direction. There is a mechanism for China’s inter-regional industrial transfer to reconstruct the national value chain through resource matching and technology matching. However, due to the reality of the current inter-regional industrial transfer, inter-regional industry transfer plays a significant role in boosting the vertical reconstruction of the national value chain by influencing the matching of labor factors, but does not play a significant role in boosting the vertical reconstruction of national value by influencing the matching of capital factors.

(5) China's inter-regional industrial transfer plays a significant role in improving the efficiency of national value chain reconstruction, which is conducive to promoting the effective connection between national value chain and global value chain or deeper embedding in global value chain, and there is significant industry and regional heterogeneity in this role. The effect of labor-intensive industries inter-regional transfer on improving restructuring efficiency is obviously stronger than that of capital and technology-intensive industries, and the effect on improving the national value chain restructuring efficiency of central and western regions is obviously stronger than that of eastern regions.

(6) The overall ability of Chinese provinces to participate in the national value chain reconstruction is low, but the advantage of market support ability is obvious. On the whole, the ability of eastern provinces to participate in the national value chain reconstruction is stronger than that of the central and western regions, especially the northwest region. The ability of Yangtze River Delta region is generally stronger than that of other urban agglomerations, followed by the Pearl River Delta, and the capacity of the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is significantly improved.

Based on the above conclusions, the article further proposes to enhance the provinces' ability to participate in the national value chain reconstruction from four aspects: policy traction, innovation drive, facility guarantee and consumption drive. Further, We can focus on four path mechanisms to enhance the role of inter-regional industries in promoting the restructuring of national value chains, such as “formulating strategic planning for industrial transfer and national value chain restructuring at the national level” “creating a high-level opening environment conducive to industrial transfer and national value chain restructuring” “ building stronger industrial undertaking and production base of value chain links” , and “building and improving logistics system and transportation infrastructure that is more conducive to spatial flow of products and production factors” .