会计学院知识库

“猪周期”是生猪养殖及销售过程中猪肉价格呈现明显的波谷与波峰交替的周期性变化。自2006年以来，我国已经经历了4轮“猪周期，且最近一轮的猪肉价格呈现出有史以来的最大幅度变化，这使得生猪养殖企业的经营状况受到很大的影响，严重时甚至导致整个行业面临严峻的财务风险。当前，关于猪周期对企业财务行为以及财务状况影响的研究相对较少。因此，探究猪周期对微观生猪养殖企业财务状况的影响，以及该如何防范由此引发的财务风险，意义深远。

本文选取生猪养殖行业的代表企业正邦科技作为案例研究对象，基于其公开披露的财务信息展开分析，以期识别潜在的财务风险，并提出具有针对性的合理化建议。分析中，本文除采用传统的报表分析法和单一分析法之外，还运用了熵权-Topsis 法对案例企业的财务状况进行了全面综合的评估。结果表明，在猪周期的上、下行期，企业会采取不同的财务行为，使得企业经营状况不稳定，面临财务危机。究其原因发现，生猪养殖周期长，企业面临生猪价格下降无法灵活调整产能，长期亏损加大企业资产负债率；此外，生猪养殖行业的重资产性质导致企业经营杠杆高，下行期价格下降使得企业亏损幅度扩大。最后，生猪价格的低谷期导致企业经营绩效大幅下降，加之企业在上升期开展大规模投融资扩张活动，导致在猪肉价格下跌期资金缺乏，无法及时偿还债务，使财务状况进一步恶化。基于此，本文最后指出，面对猪周期下的正邦科技，亟需强化财务风险管控，优化负债结构；同时，还需运用生猪套期保值，合理扩张以及开展多元化经营，提升核心竞争力，完善风险保障机制。

关键词：猪周期 财务风险 风险防范 正邦科技

"Pig cycle" refers to the cyclical change of the pork price in the process of pig breeding and selling. Since 2006, China has experienced four rounds of "pig cycle", and the latest round of pork prices showed the most drastic changes in history, which has greatly affected the operating conditions of pig breeding enterprises, and even led to severe financial risks for the whole industry. At present, there are relatively few researches on the influence of pig cycle on financial behavior and financial situation of enterprises. Therefore, it is of far-reaching significance to explore the impact of pig cycle on the financial situation of micro-pig breeding enterprises and how to prevent the financial risks caused by it.

This article selects Zhengbang Technology, a representative enterprise in the pig farming industry, as the case study object. Based on its publicly disclosed financial information, an analysis is conducted to identify potential financial risks and propose targeted rationalization suggestions. In the analysis, in addition to using traditional report analysis and single analysis methods, this article also used the Entropy Weight Topsis method to comprehensively evaluate the financial situation of the case enterprise. The results indicate that during the up and down periods of the pig cycle, companies will adopt different financial behaviors, resulting in unstable operating conditions and facing financial crises. The reason for this is that the pig farming cycle is long, and companies are unable to flexibly adjust production capacity due to the decline in pig prices. Long term losses increase the company's asset liability ratio; In addition, the heavy asset nature of the pig farming industry has led to high operating leverage for enterprises, and the decline in prices during the downward period has led to an increase in the extent of losses for enterprises. Finally, the low period of pig prices has led to a significant decline in business performance, coupled with large-scale investment and financing expansion activities carried out by enterprises during the upward period, resulting in a lack of funds during the period of declining pork prices and inability to repay debts in a timely manner, further worsening the financial situation. Based on this, this article finally points out that in the face of Zhengbang Technology under the pig cycle, there is an urgent need to strengthen financial risk control and optimize debt structure; At the same time, it is also necessary to use pig hedging, expand reasonably, and carry out diversified operations to enhance core competitiveness and improve risk protection mechanisms.

Keywords: Pig cycle; Financial risk; Risk prevention；Zhengbang Technology