统计与数据科学学院知识库

      为推进现代化发展进程、顺应产业数字化转型，我国传统产业逐渐向新型产 业转型升级。近年来，甘肃省文化旅游事业呈现良好的发展态势，但与全国平均 水平比较仍处于相对落后的发展状态。一方面，甘肃省产业要素结构不合理、产 业配套设施和经营能力弱等问题引发产业分化与失衡，降低了区域经济增长动力； 另一方面，甘肃省存在区域间文化差异和旅游资源开发不充分的问题，未能实现 资源的深入发掘和整合，文化旅游产业发展规模和质量有待进一步优化。充分挖 掘文化产业和旅游产业在所属产业门类中的发展特征，实现产业间要素交融、渗透，有助于推进文化产业和旅游产业资源整合、优化文化旅游产业结构；借助文化与旅游之间的耦合协同效应探究文化产业和旅游产业的耦合关系，有助于有效 转变经济发展方式、实现产业的长期可持续发展。因此，分析文化产业与旅游产 业发展现状，厘清文化与旅游产业要素之间的交互作用关系，量化产业耦合协调 发展程度，明确影响产业耦合协调发展的驱动因素，对缩小文化产业和旅游产业 发展不平衡、促进文旅事业高质量均衡发展具有重要意义。

       本研究在梳理既有文献的相关理论和实证研究基础上，围绕甘肃省文化产业 与旅游产业的综合发展水平评价和耦合协同分析，归纳了产业综合发展水平、耦 合协调关系及其影响因素研究现状。在综合发展水平评价方面，基于 2010-2020 年甘肃省域文化旅游及其相关产业的统计数据，明确文化产业和旅游产业的基本 内涵和主要驱动因素；从产业生产力、影响力和驱动力三个层面选取测度指标， 分别构建文化产业和旅游产业综合评价指标体系，并运用熵值定权法测算产业综 合发展水平。在耦合协同分析方面，通过构建耦合模型测算甘肃省文化旅游耦合 协调度，明晰两大产业的耦合协同关系，并进一步应用灰色关联模型探究耦合协 同影响因素，量化分析各驱动因素对二者耦合协调度的关联影响，进而为深化文 化与旅游协同发展提出针对性建议。

      本研究的主要工作有：研究视角方面，通过对比分析地区文化和旅游事业发 展的资源分布概况，探究文化旅游与区域经济发展的协调影响关系；指标选择方 面，依据文化和旅游的产业层级与业务构成，构建综合评价指标体系，并从产业 的经济发展、对外开放、资源禀赋等层面比较甘肃经济增长与文化旅游耦合协调 的影响关系，探究产业要素的内在协调影响机理；研究方法方面，对比既有文献中的耦合研究实证，总结归纳耦合协调模型的使用情况，通过修正传统耦合协调模型范式，提高了耦合模型的使用效度。

       本研究的主要结论包括：①甘肃省文化产业和旅游产业综合发展均表现出 “重产业生产，轻产业驱动”的特点；②文化产业生产力资源要素分配不均衡， 文化场馆资源投入远大于文化资本投入；旅游景区资源开发不足，旅游市场消费 影响力大于交通设施环境影响力；③文化产业综合发展趋势更具有稳定性，旅游 产业的综合发展水平受地区经济基础条件影响的程度较大；④2010 至 2020 年间， 文化旅游耦合协调度整体呈现持续增长的良好态势；⑤文化产业与旅游产业的耦 合协调发展状态表现出阶段性增长特征，可划分为快速增长-文化旅游失调、平 稳运行-文化旅游勉强协调、稳定增长-文化旅游中度协调三个发展阶段；⑥甘肃 文旅融合基础良好，融合增速状况表现为分阶段逐年放缓、整体趋势逐年加快， 各发展阶段文化旅游耦合协调水平差距逐年缩小；⑦文化旅游耦合协调度与产业 系统内部各项指标的关联性差异较大，公共图书馆流通人次对文化旅游产业融合 发展的贡献最大，艺术表演团体演出收入的贡献最小；⑧文化影响因素和旅游影 响因素对二者的耦合协同存在影响差异，旅游规模、文化场馆资源和人文资源对 文旅融合的影响程度相对较弱。

      In order to promote the development process of modernization and adapt to the digital transformation of industries, China's traditional industries are gradually transforming and upgrading to new industries. In recent years, the cultural tourism industry in Gansu Province has shown a good development trend, but it is still in a relatively backward development state compared with the national average level. On the one hand, the unreasonable industrial factor structure, weak industrial supporting facilities and management capacity cause industrial differentiation and imbalance, reduce the regional economic growth power; on the other hand, Gansu Province has the regional cultural differences and inadequate development of tourism resources, failed to realize the deep exploration and integration of resources, the development scale and quality of cultural tourism industry need to be further optimized. Fully explore the development characteristics of cultural industry and tourism industry in the industry categories, realize the integration and penetration of elements among industries, promote the resource integration of cultural industry and tourism industry and explore the coupling between cultural industry and tourism industry with the synergistic effect between culture and tourism, it is helpful to effectively transform the economic development mode and realize the long-term sustainable development of the industry. Therefore, the analysis of cultural industry and tourism industry development present situation, clarify the interaction between culture and tourism industry elements, quantitative industry coupling coordinated development degree, clear the driving factors of the coordinated development of industry coupling, to narrow the cultural industry and tourism industry development imbalance, promote the balanced development of high quality is of great significance.

      On the basis of combing the relevant theories and empirical research of the existing literature, this paper summarizes the research status of the comprehensive development level, coupling and coordination relationship and the comprehensive development level evaluation and coupling and coordination analysis of the cultural industry and tourism industry in Gansu Province. In terms of comprehensive development level evaluation, based on the statistical data of cultural tourism and related industries in Gansu Province from 2010 to 2020, the basic connotation and main driving factors are selected from three levels of industrial productivity, influence and driving force to construct the comprehensive evaluation index system of cultural industry and tourism industry, and adopt the entropy determination method to measure the comprehensive development level. In terms of coupling coordination measurement, by constructing the coupling model to measure the coupling coordination of cultural industry and tourism industry, clear two industry coupling  synergy relationship, and apply grey correlation model to further explore the coupling coordination factors, quantitative analysis of the driving factors on the coupling coordination degree, and to deepen the coordinated development of culture and tourism.

      The main work of this study is: the research perspective, By comparing and analyzing the resource distribution situation of regional culture and tourism development, Explore the coordination and influence relationship between cultural tourism and regional economic development; In terms of indicator selection, According to the industrial level and business composition of culture and tourism, Building a comprehensive evaluation index system, From the perspective of industrial economic development, opening up, resource endowment and so aspects, the influence of economic growth and cultural tourism, Explore the internal coordination and influence mechanism of industrial elements; In terms of the research methodology, Compare the empirical coupling studies in the existing literature, Summarize the use of the inductive coupled coordination model, By modifying the conventional coupling coordination model paradigm, Imthe usage validity of the coupled model.

      The main research conclusions of this paper include: ① The comprehensive development of cultural industry and tourism industry in Gansu Province shows that " heavy industry production, Light industry driven " characteristics; ② Unbalanced distribution of productivity resources in cultural industries, The resource investment of cultural venues is far greater than that of cultural capital; Insufficient resource development of tourist attractions, The consumption influence of tourism market is greater than the environmental influence of transportation facilities; ③ The comprehensive development trend of the cultural industry is more stable, The comprehensive development level of the tourism industry is greatly affected by the regional economic basic conditions; ④ Between 2010 and 2020, The coupling and coordination degree of cultural tourism shows a good trend of continuous growth; ⑤ The coupling and coordinated development state of cultural industry and tourism industry shows the characteristics of stage growth, It can be divided into three development stages: rapid growth-cultural tourism imbalance, stable operation, barely coordination of cultural tourism, stable growth and moderate coordination of cultural tourism; ⑥ Gansu province has a good foundation for cultural and tourism integration, The integration growth rate is shown by the phased slowing down year by year, and the overall trend accelerates year by year, The gap between the coupling and coordination level of cultural tourism in each development stage is narrowed year by year; ⑦ The correlation between cultural tourism coupling and the industrial system is different, The circulation of public libraries contributes the most to the integrated development of cultural tourism industry, Art performance groups shall make the least contribution to the performance income; ⑧ Cultural influence factors and tourism influence factors affect the coupling and synergy of the two differences, Tourism scale, cultural venue resources and cultural resources have a relatively weak influence on the integration of cultural and tourism.