统计与数据科学学院知识库

      本文选取黄河经济带沿线地区75个地级市2009年至2019年空间面板数据，建立涵盖6个一级指标、25个二级指标的黄河经济带高质量发展评价指标体系，在对相关指标数据做进一步的筛选与清洗之后，结合熵权法的基本原理测算黄河经济带高质量发展综合评价指数，并对黄河经济带上中下游地区高质量发展水平进行对比分析，再根据莫兰空间相关性检验，研究黄河经济带各地级市高质量发展地理空间分布关联性，最后根据空间面板模型估计黄河经济带高质量发展的影响因素，并通过分解各因素的空间效应探索其具体的影响机理与作用机制。基于实证研究结果，可得出如下结论：
　　（1）黄河经济带上中下游地区高质量发展水平差异显著。经济带上游地区高质量发展评价指数在2009年至2019年间增长幅度与环比增长速度均较为显著，其高质量发展水平提升迅速；黄河经济带中游地区高质量发展评价指数在研究期间波动幅度较大，相较于其他地区而言稳定性较弱，且高质量发展水平有轻微的回落趋势；黄河经济带下游地区高质量发展得分整体处于较高水准，发展基础深厚，在研究期间高质量发展水平稳中有升，整体居于较高水平。此外，黄河经济带高质量发展等级自东向西呈阶梯式递减趋势，经济带下游地区大部分城市高质量发展水平处于优秀级别，中游地区高质量发展级别多为中等及良好等级，相比而言，上游地区高质量发展水平多为中等偏下水平。三大地带高质量发展平均水平由高到低排名依次为下游、中游、上游。
　　（2）黄河经济带高质量发展具有显著的空间正向相关性。2009年至2019年黄河经济带高质量综合得分的莫兰指数均显著大于零，且随着研究时间的推移表现出递增的发展趋势，即经济带各城市之间高质量发展具有较为显著的地理空间正向关联性；黄河经济带局部莫兰检验表明经济带高质量发展综合评价指数呈现明显的地域集聚性，经济带上游地区以低值集聚为主，中下游地区多以高值集聚为主，此外，中上游地区省会城市与周边地区高质量发展得分呈现高值-低值集聚态势，即各地区之间高质量发展存在较大差距。黄河经济带高质量发展水平在研究期间空间分布特征明显，高质量发展得分呈低值集聚的城市数量逐渐减少，经济带高质量发展水平整体提升显著。
　　（3）黄河经济带高质量发展驱动因素空间效应差异显著。政府绩效水平、对外贸易、环境治理能力、产业结构、基础设施建设均对黄河经济带高质量发展具有直接的促进作用；环境治理水平、产业结构、基础设施建设与现代服务业发展状况对黄河经济带高质量发展表现出地区之间的竞争性，政府管理绩效与地区开放强度则有待进一步提升；总体而言，政府绩效水平、对外贸易水平、产业结构等因素在黄河经济带高质量分在进程中表现为正向的空间效应，而现代服务业发展及环境治理水平则对黄河经济带高质量发展水平的提升具有一定的反向抑制性。

This paper selects the spatial panel data of 75 prefecture-level cities along the Yellow River Economic Belt from 2009 to 2019, and establishes an evaluation index system of high-quality development of the Yellow River Economic Belt, which covers 6 first-level indicators and 25 second-level indicators. After further screening and cleaning the relevant index data, it calculates the comprehensive evaluation index of high-quality development of the Yellow River Economic Belt with the basic principle of entropy weight method, and makes a comparative analysis of the high-quality development level of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. Then, according to Moran's spatial correlation test, the geographical spatial distribution correlation of high-quality development of cities in the Yellow River Economic Belt is studied. Finally, the influencing factors of high-quality development of the Yellow River Economic Belt are estimated according to the spatial panel model, and the specific influencing mechanism and action mechanism are explored by decomposing the spatial effects of each factor. Based on the empirical research results, the following conclusions can be drawn:
　　(1) The difference of high-quality development level between the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt is significant. From 2009 to 2019, the growth rate of the high-quality development evaluation index in the upper reaches of the economic belt and the chain growth rate were both significant, and its high-quality development level improved rapidly; The evaluation index of high-quality development in the middle reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt fluctuates greatly during the study period, and its stability is weak compared with other areas, and the high-quality development level has a slight downward trend. The score of high-quality development in the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt is generally at a high level, with a deep development foundation. During the study period, the level of high-quality development has steadily increased, and the overall level is at a high level. In addition, the high-quality development level of the Yellow River Economic Belt is decreasing step by step from east to west. Most cities in the lower reaches of the economic belt are at excellent level, while the middle reaches are mostly medium and good, while the upper reaches are mostly below the middle level. The average level of high-quality development in the three regions is ranked downstream, midstream and upstream from high to low.
　　(2) The high-quality development of the Yellow River Economic Belt has a significant spatial positive correlation. From 2009 to 2019, the Moran index of high-quality comprehensive score of the Yellow River Economic Belt was significantly greater than zero, and showed an increasing trend with the passage of research time, that is, the high-quality development among cities in the economic belt had a significant positive correlation in geographical space; Moran test of the Yellow River Economic Belt shows that the comprehensive evaluation index of high-quality development in the economic belt shows obvious regional agglomeration. The upper reaches of the economic belt are dominated by low-value agglomeration, and the middle and lower reaches are dominated by high-value agglomeration. In addition, the high-quality development scores of provincial capital cities and surrounding areas in the middle and upper reaches show high-value-low-value agglomeration, that is, there is a big gap in high-quality development among regions. During the study period, the spatial distribution characteristics of the high-quality development level of the Yellow River Economic Belt are obvious, the number of cities with low-value high-quality development scores is gradually decreasing, and the overall high-quality development level of the Economic Belt is significantly improved.
　　(3) The spatial effects of the driving factors of high-quality development in the Yellow River Economic Belt are significantly different. The level of government performance, foreign trade, environmental governance capacity, industrial structure and infrastructure construction have a direct role in promoting the high-quality development of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The level of environmental governance, industrial structure, infrastructure construction and the development of modern service industry show regional competitiveness for the high-quality development of the Yellow River Economic Belt, while the government management performance and regional opening intensity need to be further improved. Generally speaking, the government performance level, foreign trade level, industrial structure and other factors show positive spatial effects in the process of the high quality of the Yellow River Economic Belt, while the development of modern service industry and the level of environmental governance have certain reverse inhibition on the promotion of the high-quality development level of the Yellow River Economic Belt.