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党的二十大会议精神中习近平总书记强调了大力推动“宜居宜业和美丽乡村”的建设，让农村地区的人民就地过上现代化生活，各类返乡入乡创新创业群体是带动乡村发展的主力军和生力军。同时在乡村振兴战略的支持下，越来越多的新农人积极投身于返乡创业的大浪潮之中。本文主要聚焦社会保险是否有助于提高新农人返乡创业的意愿、不同种类的保险在新农人返乡创业决策中的影响路径。
本文以期望效用理论为基础，提出社会保险在新农人返乡创业决策中通过风险激励效应以及收入差异缓解效应激发新农人返乡创业热情。根据2018年中国劳动力动态调查数据，采用二元Logit模型，使用各省份地区参保率作为工具变量进行IV Probit模型检验、使用Probit模型和缩小样本的方法进行稳健性检验，并以金融资产和家庭收入作为中介变量分析社会保险与新农人创业决策之间的影响机制，验证了所提出理论假设。
结果表明：1.总的来看社会保险、商业保险和基础设施均显著促进新农人创业，拥有社会保险和商业保险双重保障的新农人做出创业决策的概率更大。2.新农人返乡创业的决策过程中，社会保险能够通过提升新农人风险偏好、缓解收入差异，显著提高新农人创业倾向，从而能够促进新农人返乡创业的决策。3.新农人返乡创业决策还受到农村基础设施供给水平的影响，生活型基础设施比生产型基础设施对新农人返乡创业的影响效应更大。4.通过无序多项 Logit 模型来

In the spirit of the 20th Party Congress, General Secretary Xi emphasized "vigorously promoting the construction of a livable, workable and beautiful countryside", so that people in rural areas can live a modern life locally, and all kinds of innovative and entrepreneurial groups returning to their hometowns are the main force and the driving force of rural development. Meanwhile, with the support of rural revitalization strategy, more and more new farmers are actively engaged in the big wave of returning to their hometowns to start their own businesses. The paper focuses on whether social insurance helps to increase the willingness of new farmers to return to their hometowns and the influence path of different types of insurance in the decision of new farmers to return to their hometowns.
Based on expected utility theory, this paper proposes that social insurance stimulates new farmers' enthusiasm to return to their hometown through the risk incentive effect as well as the income difference mitigation effect in new farmers' decision to return to their hometown to start a business. Based on the 2018 China Labor Force Dynamics Survey data, a binary logit model is used to test the IV Probit model using the regional participation rate of each province as an instrumental variable, robustness testing using the Probit model and a reduced sample, and financial assets and household income as mediating variables to analyze the influence mechanism between social insurance and new farmers' entrepreneurial decision, which verifies the the proposed theoretical hypothesis.
The results show that there is a risk-incentive effect and an income-difference-mitigating effect of social insurance participation in the decision-making process of new farmers' entrepreneurship in their hometowns, which can enhance the propensity of new farmers to choose entrepreneurship. Overall, social insurance, commercial insurance and infrastructure all significantly promote new farmers' entrepreneurship, and new farmers who have both social insurance and commercial insurance are more likely to make entrepreneurial decisions. Social insurance can significantly increase new farmers' propensity to start a business by increasing their risk preferences and alleviating financing constraints. A disordered multinomial Logit model was used to investigate the effect of social insurance and commercial insurance participation on opportunity-based versus survival-based entrepreneurship, and it was found that the higher the participation of new farmers in social insurance compared to being employed, the more likely they were to choose opportunity-based entrepreneurship and the less likely they were to choose survival-based entrepreneurship; commercial insurance significantly promoted the shift of new farmers to opportunity-based and survival-based entrepreneurship. Social insurance has a significant positive promotion effect on new farmers' entrepreneurship in the east, central and west regions, and the promotion effect of social insurance is greater in the west than in the east and central regions. New farmers' decision to return to their hometowns is also influenced by the level of rural infrastructure supply, and subsistence-oriented infrastructure has a greater effect on new farmers' return to their hometowns than production-oriented infrastructure.
Finally, the following suggestions are made in combination with the empirical results: the government should broaden the social insurance coverage, improve social insurance protection, give full play to the auxiliary function of commercial insurance in basic social insurance, and build a new pattern of social security system. The government should also promote more social subjects to return to their hometown and start their own business.