经济学院知识库

  当下，我国的数字经济全面发展，为经济社会带来了巨大变革。大数据、互联网与人工智能的出现，不仅为人们的生活带来了便利，还能助推数字产业与传统产业深度融合，改善生产结构，提高生产效率，促进企业绿色转型。充分发挥数字经济优势，能够为我国实现“双碳”目标提供新契机。因此，深入分析数字经济与碳排放之间的关系，对实现社会绿色发展具有重要意义。

  本文基于空间经济视角，聚焦数字经济发展对城市碳排放的空间特征以及主要影响效应，开展文献回顾、理论分析与实证检验。在理论方面，构建以扩展的IPAT等式为基础的理论模型，深入分析数字经济对城市碳排放的内在作用机制；在实证方面，采用历年城市统计数据制备了2011—2020年我国279个地级市及以上城市的面板数据，进行空间相关性、空间溢出效应和空间异质性分析，并从经济发展与技术进步两方面阐述了数字经济发展对城市碳排放的作用路径，采用替换空间权重矩阵、剔除直辖市以及替换被解释变量的方法保证其稳健性，试图从理论与实证两方面廓清数字经济影响城市碳排放的主要机制效应。

  研究发现：（1）数字经济发展与城市碳排放分别呈现“东高西低”“北高南低”的分布态势，同时两者均存在显著的空间相关性特征。（2）数字经济发展对城市碳排放的影响存在先促进，后抑制的倒“U”型趋势，其影响过程能够通过空间外溢作用于周边地区。（3）在单一路径中，经济发展能够缩小数字经济发展对城市碳排放的非线性趋势，而技术进步对数字经济的影响效应具有“放大”作用。在双重路径中，经济发展是主要影响途径，而技术进步的作用相对较小。（4）在空间异质性方面，数字经济对城市碳排放的影响效应由强到弱依次为：西部地区、东北地区、中部地区和东部地区。同时，大部分城市没能跨越拐点，表明数字经济助力城市低碳减排仍处于初级阶段。

  本研究主要对策建议：（1）完善城市数字基础设施建设，营造良好的数字金融环境，为数字产业发展赋能。（2）加强区域数字经济发展联系，构建碳排放的协同减排机制，发挥碳减排的正向促进作用。（3）利用经济发展的作用路径，发挥经济集聚对环境的正向作用，助益城市低碳减排。（4）培育数字技术相关人才，发挥技术进步的减排优势，强化技术效应良性溢出。

  The overall development of our digital economy has brought significant changes to the economy and society. The emergence of big data, the Internet, and artificial intelligence not only brings convenience to people's lives but also promotes the deep integration of digital and traditional industries, improves the production structure, improves production efficiency, and promotes the green transformation of enterprises. Giving full play to the advantage of the digital economy can provide a new opportunity for our "double carbon" goal. Therefore, an in-depth analysis of the relationship between the digital economy and carbon emissions is of great significance for realizing green social development.

  Based on the perspective of spatial economy, this paper focuses on the spatial characteristics and main effects of digital economy development on urban carbon emissions. It carries out the literature review, theoretical analysis, and empirical test. We build a theoretical model based on the extended IPAT equation to deeply analyze the internal mechanism of the digital economy on urban carbon emission. Empirically, we prepare the panel data of 279 prefecture-level cities and above from 2011 to 2020, using urban statistical data. The spatial correlation, spatial spillover effect, and spatial heterogeneity are analyzed. In addition, we expound on the practical path of digital economy development on urban carbon emissions from economic development and technological progress. By replacing the spatial weight matrix, eliminating the municipalities directly under the central government, and replacing the explained variables to ensure its robustness, the paper attempts to clarify the main mechanism effects of the digital economy on urban carbon emissions from theoretical and empirical aspects.

  The results show that: (1) Digital economy development and urban carbon emission present a distribution trend of "high in the east and low in the west" and "high in the north and low in the south," respectively, and both have significant spatial correlation characteristics. (2) The impact of digital economy development on urban carbon emission has an inverted "U" -shaped feature of promoting first and then inhibiting, which can affect surrounding areas through spatial spillover. (3) In a single path, economic development can narrow the nonlinear trend of the digital economy on urban carbon emissions. At the same time, technological progress has a "magnifying" effect on the digital economy. In the dual path, economic development is the primary influence, while technological progress plays a relatively minor role. (4) Regarding spatial heterogeneity, the effects of the digital economy on urban carbon emissions from strong to weak are as follows: western region, northeast region, central region, and eastern region. At the same time, most cities fail to cross the inflection point, indicating that the digital economy's contribution to urban low-carbon emission reduction is still in its initial stage.

  The primary recommendations and countermeasures from this study are as follows: (1) The government should improve the construction of urban digital infrastructure, create an excellent digital financial environment, and empower the development of the digital industry. (2) The government should strengthen the development of the regional digital economy, build a collaborative carbon emission reduction mechanism, and play a positive role in promoting carbon emission reduction. (3) The government should take advantage of the role path of economic development, give full play to the positive effect of economic agglomeration on the environment, and help reduce urban low-carbon emissions. (4) The government should cultivate digital technology-related talents, give full play to the emission reduction advantages of technological progress, and strengthen the benign spillover of technological effects.