统计与数据科学学院知识库

中国在发展过程中一直面临着水资源短缺的问题，水资源匮乏而且气候干旱的甘肃省更是如此。为了解决该问题，不仅采取了研发新的灌溉设备、工业生产设备等措施，还基于庇古税等理论，对各省（直辖市、自治区）开征水资源费，2016年起又对河北省进行水资源税改，取得一定成果后，将税改范围扩大至北京、天津等9个省(直辖市、自治区)。为了研究征收水资源税对甘肃省的影响，本文根据甘肃省2017年的投入产出表编制了水资源核算矩阵，用CGE模型模拟了征收相同水资源税率和差异化税率的影响。本文做了静态和动态两种模拟，因此所得结论也分为静态模拟结果和动态模拟结果，静态模拟结果为前两点，动态模拟结果为后两点：

（1）征收相同税率和差异化税率，均会导致出口和政府收入呈现正增长，GDP、居民收入、企业收入、水资源消耗量和进口总量均为负增长，而且征收的水资源税率越高，各个变量变化的幅度越大。产出和水资源消耗量变动幅度最大的是均为工业部门，其次是农业部门，服务业部门次之，变动幅度与水资源税率成正比；但是一般耗水工业和一般耗水服务业部门的产出和水资源消耗量呈现出增长趋势，农业、高耗水工业和高耗水服务业部门的产出和水资源消耗量呈现出减少趋势。

（2）征收差异化税率的结果显示，在对所有部门征收20%的水资源税时，农业部门的产出和水资源消耗量减少的最多。对高耗水部门征收20%的水资源税，对其余部门征收10%的水资源税时，高耗水部门的产出和水资源消耗量减少最多，高耗水工业部门的产出减少了0.1457%，水资源消耗量减少了0.2175%，高耗水服务业部门的产出减少了0.0071%，水资源消耗量减少了0.0059%；一般耗水工业部门的产出和水资源消耗量增加的最多，而一般耗水服务业部门的产出和水资源消耗量在征收20%的水资源税和差异化征税情况下增加的幅度相同。

（3）对所有部门征收10%的水资源税后，2018-2030年GDP、居民收入、政府收入、企业收入、进出口总量及水资源消耗量均在逐年增长，但是增速存在明显差异；GDP、企业收入、政府收入、居民收入及进口的增长速度在加快，出口及水资源消耗量的增速在下降，但是所有变量的增长速度逐渐趋于一个稳定值。2017-3030年各部门产出和水资源消耗量的增长速度从快到慢依次为一般耗水工业部门、高耗水工业、农业、高耗水服务业及一般耗水服务业。

（4）征收相同税率和差异化税率后，所有变量模拟结果的变化趋势一致。与差异化征税的模拟结果相比，征收相同税率时GDP、居民收入、企业收入、水资源消耗量、进口总量的模拟结果较高，政府收入和出口总量的模拟结果较低。这个结果与本文前一部分静态模拟的结果一致。GDP、居民收入、企业收入、进口总量及出口总量的模拟结果差异很小，增长率的差异都在0.0002%以内；水资源消耗量和政府收入的增长率差异较大，水资源消耗量增长率的差异在0.0008%-0.0016%之间，平均值为0.0011%，政府收入增长率的差异最大，在0.0069%-0.0079%之间，平均值为0.0076%。

China has been faced with the problem of water shortage in the process of development, especially in Gansu Province, which is short of water resources and has a dry climate. In order to solve this problem, we have not only taken measures such as developing new irrigation equipment and industrial production equipment, but also levied water resource fees on provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) based on Pigouvian tax. Since 2016, we have carried out water resource tax reform in Hebei Province. After achieving certain results, we have expanded the scope of tax reform to nine provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions), including Beijing and Tianjin. In order to study the impact of levying water resource tax on Gansu Province, this paper has compiled a water resource accounting matrix based on the 2017 input-output table of Gansu Province, and simulated the impact of levying the same water resource tax rate and differentiated tax rate with CGE model. This paper has done static and dynamic simulation, so the conclusions are also divided into static simulation results and dynamic simulation results. The static simulation results are the first two points, and the dynamic simulation results are the last two points:

(1) Imposing the same tax rate and differentiated tax rate will lead to positive growth of export and government revenue, and negative growth of GDP, resident income, enterprise income, water resource consumption and total imports. The higher the tax rate on water resources is, the greater the range of changes in each variable. The largest change in output and water consumption is in the industrial sector, followed by the agricultural sector, followed by the service sector, and the change is in direct proportion to the water resource tax rate; However, the output and water resource consumption of general water consuming industry and general water consuming service sector show an increasing trend, while the output and water resource consumption of agriculture, high water consuming industry and high water consuming service sector show a decreasing trend.

(2) The results of the differential tax rate show that the output and water consumption of the agricultural sector are reduced the most when the 20% water resource tax is levied on all sectors. When a 20% water resource tax is levied on high water consuming departments and a 10% water resource tax is levied on other departments, the output and water resource consumption of high water consuming departments decrease the most, the output of high water consuming industrial departments decreases by 0.1457%, the water resource consumption decreases by 0.2175%, the output of high water consuming service departments decreases by 0.0071%, and the water resource consumption decreases by 0.0059%; The output and water consumption of the general water consuming industry sector increased the most, while the output and water consumption of the general water consuming service sector increased by the same extent when the 20% water resource tax and differentiated tax were levied.

(3) After 10% water resource tax is levied on all departments, GDP, resident income, government income, enterprise income, total import and export volume and water resource consumption are increasing year by year from 2017 to 2030, but the growth rate is obviously different; The growth rate of GDP, enterprise income, government income, resident income and import is accelerating, while the growth rate of export and water resource consumption is decreasing, but the growth rate of all variables gradually tends to a stable value. During 2017-2030, the growth rate of output and water resource consumption of each sector from fast to slow is generally water consuming industrial sector, high water consuming industry, agriculture, high water consuming service industry and general water consuming service industry.

(4) After imposing the same tax rate and differentiated tax rate, the change trend of all variable simulation results is consistent. Compared to the simulation results of differential taxation, the simulation results of GDP, resident income, enterprise income, water resource consumption, and total imports are higher when the same tax rate is imposed, while the simulation results of government income and total exports are lower. This result is consistent with the results of the static simulation in the previous part of this paper. The simulation results of GDP, resident income, enterprise income, total imports and total exports show little difference, and the difference of growth rate is within 0.0002%; There is a large difference between the growth rate of water resource consumption and government revenue. The difference between the growth rate of water resource consumption is 0.0008% - 0.0016%, with an average of 0.0011%. The difference between the growth rate of government revenue is the largest, which is 0.0069% - 0.0079%, with an average of 0.0076%.