国际经济与贸易学院知识库

摘  要

近年来，全球化已进入“数字促进贸易”的新阶段，数字贸易占全球贸易总额的比重不断提高，同时传统贸易也正朝着贸易对象和方式数字化转型。作为规范数字贸易秩序的国际准则，数字贸易规则对于出口贸易的重要性不言而喻，在后疫情时代百年未有之大变局的形势下，我国出口环境面临着极大不确定性，因此顺应时势发展数字贸易，构建适应我国国情的数字贸易规则已然刻不容缓。

在这一背景下，本文首先梳理了相关理论文献对于FTAs数字贸易规则出口效应、制度因素出口效应的研究成果，发现在诸多机制中交易成本是重要的中介因素，进一步提出数字贸易规则通过促进贸易对象、方式数字化降低传统贸易成本，通过提升制度环境降低数字贸易成本，从而产生直接效应、竞争效应、规模效应和长尾效应推进出口规模扩张。其次，采用Hsiao et al.(2012）提出的回归合成法，以2005-2019年为样本期，参考前人经验整理出我国各FTAs中数字贸易规则深度值，从中选取中国-韩国、中国-澳大利亚、中国-智利这三个深度值大于3、实施时间距样本结束期超过一年的FTAs作为处理组，以其余样本期内未实施数字贸易规则的双边FTAs为控制组，构建准自然实验反事实分析其对我国出口的影响效应。此外本文还将出口贸易额细分，测算了我国与贸易国双边数字贸易成本和传统贸易成本，进行了拓展分析与机制分析。结果发现：（1）从整体层面看，自由贸易协定中数字贸易规则的实施总体上促进了我国对协约国的出口，但也易受到外部环境因素和实施时间长短的制约；（2）从部门层面看，数字贸易规则对数字货物出口的促进作用存在滞后性，对数字服务出口影响更大，而传统出口促进效应总体不如数字出口显著；（3）从空间层面看，相对于澳大利亚，FTA数字贸易规则对与我国空间距离较近、文化背景相似的韩国的出口政策效应更为明显；（4）从时间层面来看，数字贸易规则实施时间越长对于出口的促进效果就越明显；（5）从影响机制看，数字贸易规则实施通过降低我国与贸易国双边传统贸易成本和数字贸易成本促进出口增长。鉴于此本文提出主动在数字贸易规则谈判中提出中国主张、制定差异化的FTA数字贸易规则谈判策略、提升数字基础设施水平和完善配套国内专项政策法律这4点政策建议。

Abstract

In recent years, globalization has entered a new stage of "digital trade promotion," with the proportion of digital trade in global trade increasing continuously. At the same time, traditional trade is also digitizing its trade objects and methods. As an international standard for regulating digital trade, digital trade rules are of utmost importance for export trade. In the context of the unprecedented changes in the international situation in the post-pandemic era, the export environment of China is facing great uncertainty. Therefore, it is urgent to develop digital trade and build digital trade rules that are suitable for China's national conditions.

In this context, this paper first summarizes the research results of relevant theoretical literature on the export effects of digital trade rules in FTAs and the institutional factors that affect export. Among various mechanisms, transaction costs are identified as an important intermediate factor. The paper further proposes that digital trade rules can reduce traditional trade costs by promoting the digitization of trade objects and methods, and reduce digital trade costs by improving the institutional environment. This leads to direct effects, competitive effects, scale effects, and long-tail effects that promote export expansion.Secondly, using the regression synthesis method proposed by Hsiao et al. (2012), this paper selects China-South Korea, China-Australia, and China-Chile as the treatment group, with digital trade rule depth greater than 3 and implementation time more than one year after the sample period. The rest of the bilateral FTAs without implemented digital trade rules are selected as the control group, and a quasi-natural experiment is constructed to analyze their impact on China's exports. In addition, this paper divides export trade volume into digital goods and services exports, and traditional goods and services exports, and calculates the bilateral digital and traditional trade costs between China and trading partners, and conducts an extended analysis and mechanism analysis.

The results show that: (1) overall, the implementation of digital trade rules in FTAs promotes China's exports to contracting countries, but is also susceptible to external environmental factors and implementation time constraints; (2) at the sector level, the promotion effect of digital trade rules on digital goods exports lags behind that of digital services exports, while the promotion effect on traditional exports is generally not as significant as that of digital exports; (3) at the spatial level, compared with Australia, the impact of FTA digital trade rules on the export policies of China and South Korea, which are closer in spatial distance and have similar cultural backgrounds, is more significant; (4) from a time perspective, the longer the implementation time of digital trade rules, the more obvious the promotion effect on exports; (5) from the perspective of influence mechanism, the implementation of digital trade rules promotes export growth by reducing bilateral traditional and digital trade costs between China and its trading partners. In view of this, this paper proposes four policy recommendations, including actively proposing China's position in digital trade rule negotiations, formulating differentiated FTA digital trade rule negotiation strategies, improving the level of digital infrastructure, and perfecting domestic special policy and legal support for digital trade rules.