国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  “十四五”时期，我国迎来了新的发展阶段，自由贸易区的建设不仅从数量上增加，内容上也呈现出深度、广度不断扩展的趋势，涵盖的议题不断向服务贸易领域延伸，而服务贸易巨额逆差一直是我国服务业经济发展所面临的一个现实问题，目前逆差仍在不断扩大，此外还存在结构发展不平衡，创新发展乏力等问题。因此，探究自由贸易协定深度对服务贸易出口的影响，对优化服务贸易结构，改变贸易逆差扩大趋势具有深远意义。

  本文首先对我国服务贸易进出口规模以及行业结构进行现状分析，对比我国所签订的FTA进行条款异质性以及“WTO+”条款与“WTO-X”条款的覆盖力深度、约束力深度对比分析。随后从国际服务贸易环境改善以及服务贸易成本降低两个方面分别阐述FTA深度加深对服务贸易出口的影响机制。进一步，本文选取2005-2018年，我国对19个缔约国的服务贸易出口数据，运用扩展引力模型，在孙玉红（2021）研究的基础上，进一步将条款进行分类，实证研究总条款以及各类条款的深度对我国服务贸易出口的影响。

  研究结果表明：FTA整体深度的提升显著促进了我国服务贸易的出口，其促进效应在FTA的覆盖力深度以及约束力深度上均有所体现。进一步区分条款类别发现，“WTO+”条款、“WTO-X”条款与核心条款深度的提升也均促进了我国服务贸易的出口，但“WTO-X”条款的促进作用强于“WTO+”条款。核心条款的促进作用强于“WTO+”条款，表明核心条款中的4项“WTO-X”条款部分能使“WTO+”条款的促进作用得到进一步提升。

  基于实证研究结果，本文提出要推动与更多国家签署自由贸易协定，发挥地缘优势；对已经签订的自贸协定进行升级，升级的重点向“WTO-X”条款倾斜，注重“WTO-X”条款对服务贸易出口的促进效应，进一步扩宽议题的覆盖面；发展新兴服务贸易，实现服务贸易的创新式发展，平衡优化我国服务业的出口结构；合理选择自贸区伙伴国，注重其经济发展水平等政策建议。  

    Entering the "14th Five Year Plan" period, a new stage of development has been ushered in. The construction of free trade zones not only needs to increase in quantity, but also presents a trend of continuous expansion in depth and breadth in content, covering topics that continue to extend to the field of service trade. The huge deficit in service trade has always been a problem hindering China's economic development. Currently, the deficit is still expanding. In addition, there are still problems such as unbalanced structural development and weak innovation and development. "The 14th Five Year Plan for the Development of Service Trade" fully affirms the important role of service trade in China's economic growth, and puts forward new requirements for the development of service trade. Therefore, exploring the impact of the depth of free trade agreements on service trade exports has far-reaching significance in optimizing the structure of service trade and changing the trend of expanding trade deficits.

    This article first analyzes the current situation of China's service trade import and export scale and industry structure, and compares the heterogeneity of the terms of the FTA signed by China, as well as the depth of coverage and binding force of the "WTO+" clause and the "WTO-X" clause. Subsequently, the impact mechanism of the deepening of FTA on service trade exports is discussed from two aspects: improving the international service trade environment and reducing the cost of service trade. Further, this article selects the export data of China's service trade to 19 contracting countries from 2005 to 2018, and uses the extended gravity model to further classify the terms based on Sun Yuhong's (2021) research. It empirically studies the impact of the total terms and the depth of various terms on China's service trade exports.

    The research results show that the improvement of the overall depth of FTA has significantly promoted the export of China's service trade, and its promotion effect is reflected in the depth of coverage and binding force of FTA. Further distinguishing the categories of clauses, it is found that the deepening of "WTO+" clauses, "WTO-X" clauses, and core clauses have also promoted the export of China's service trade, but the promotion effect of "WTO-X" clauses is stronger than that of "WTO+" clauses. The promotion effect of core clauses is stronger than that of "WTO+" clauses, indicating that the four "WTO-X" clauses in the core clauses can further enhance the promotion effect of "WTO+" clauses.

    Based on the results of empirical research, this paper proposes to promote the signing of free trade agreements with more countries and give play to geographical advantages; Upgrade the signed free trade agreements with a focus on "WTO-X" clauses, pay attention to the promotion effect of "WTO-X" clauses on service trade exports, and further expand the coverage of the topic; Develop emerging service trade, achieve innovative development of service trade, and balance and optimize the export structure of China's service industry; Reasonably select partner countries in free trade zones, pay attention to policy recommendations such as their economic development level, and promote the construction of a global network of high standard free trade zones.