财税与公共管理学院知识库

  自1978年改革开放至今，我国的个人所得税在这40多年时间里，已经经历了许多次制度变迁，个人所得税制度的目标也随着经济发展而发生了许多变化。自2018年起，我国开始了一轮新的改革，在免征额、税率、专项附加扣除等方面都进行了较大的调整。我国税制包含许多税种制度，个人所得税制度是其中尤其重要的一部分，在调节收入分配、促进消费、改善社会福利等方面都发挥了日益巨大的作用。本文结合2018年改革至今的成效与现状，从收入分配效应、消费效应和福利效应三个角度出发，通过具体的数据实证分析了2018年个人所得税制度改革的效应，希望对以后的个人所得税改革能提供一定的参考。

  在收入分配效应分析中，结合目前我国在不同收入阶层、城镇与农村、不同区域及不同行业收入差距较大的现状，利用四川省2012-2020年期间的数据，计算基尼系数和平均税率等指标，通过分析得出了以下结论：短时间内，个人所得税改革并没有起到很好的调节收入分配的效果，降低中收入人群的税负和平均税率，提高中收入人群的税率和高收入人群的税负可降低税后基尼系数，进而缩小收入差距。

  在消费效应分析中，我国社会消费品零售总额平稳增长，消费率仍然处于较低水平，边际消费倾向提高，恩格尔系数波动较大，居民消费结构得到改善，城乡消费支出差异不断扩大，但城乡消费之间的相对差距正在逐步缩小。通过对2013—2020年各省（市）面板数据的实证研究，发现2018年个税改革对居民消费起到了一定的推动作用。

  在福利效应分析中，本文通过构建福利指数作为衡量福利效果的工具，并对2013-2020年的社会福利指数的变动趋势进行了分析，得出结论：2018年的改革，大大减轻了纳税人的税收压力,尤其是对中等收入人群，带来更多减税福利。同时,当社会上对收入不公平厌恶的程度加剧时,通过所得税提高收入分配对社会福利形成的正面效果高于可分配收入减少形成的负面效果,此时个人所得税就增加了社会福利水平。

  总体来说，2018年的个人所得税改革，取得了很好的减税效果，但是在调节收入分配上作用不显著，一定程度上促进了居民消费，降低了纳税人税收负担，税收优惠政策使许多人群受益，大大提升社会福利水平。

  最后，根据对收入分配效应、消费效应、福利效应的分析，从不同角度提出建议。

    Within more than 40 years from the Reform and Opening up in 1978 to the present, our country's individual income tax had experienced many systematic modifications, and the objectives of the individual income tax system had also experienced many changes in line with economic development. A new series of reforms has been launched in China since 2018, with major adjustments in the exemption amount, tax rate, special additional deductions, etc. Our country's tax system contains many tax systems, of which the individual income tax system is a particularly significant part, playing an increasingly large function in regulating income distribution, promoting consumption and improving social welfare. This paper takes into account the effectiveness and current situation of the 2018 reform so far, and from three perspectives of income distribution function, consumption effect and the welfare effect, analyzes the effect of the 2018 individual income tax system reform empirically through specific data, with the hope that it can serve as a certain degree of consideration for the future individual income tax reform.

    In the analysis of income distribution effect, combining the current situation of large income disparity between different income classes, town and countryside, as well as different districts and different occupations in our country,using the data of Sichuan Province during 2012-2020, calculating indicators such as Gini coefficient and average tax rate, the below conclusions are drawn through the analysis: in a short term, personal income tax reform does not play a good role in regulating income distribution, a reduction in the tax load and average tax rate of the middle-income group, an increase in the tax rate of the middle-income group and the tax load of the high-income group can reduce the after-tax Gini coefficient and thus narrow the income gap.

   In the consumption effect analysis,our country's gross retail sales of consumer goods have generally grown steadily, still at a relatively small percentage of consumption, the marginal propensity to consume has increased, Engel's Coefficient has fluctuated, the consumption structure of residents’ is improving, and the gap in consumption expenditure between town and countryside is enlarging, however, the relevant disparity in consumption between city and country is in the process of decreasing gradually. Through an empirical study of the panel data of each province (city) from 2013-2020, it is found that the personal tax reform in 2018 has played a certain role in promoting residents' consumption.

   In the analysis of welfare effects, this paper analyzes the trend of changes in the social welfare index from 2013 to 2020 by constructing a welfare index as a tool to measure welfare effects, and concludes that the reform in 2018 greatly reduces the tax pressure on taxpayers,especially for middle-income people, and brings more tax reduction benefits. At the same time,when the aversion to income inequality increases in society,the positive effect on social welfare formed by raising income distribution through income tax is higher than the negative effect formed by the reduction of distributable income,when personal income tax increases the level of social welfare.

   Overall, the individual income tax reform in 2018 has achieved a good tax reduction effect, but the effect on regulating income distribution is not significant, and to a certain extent, it has promoted residents' consumption, reduced taxpayers' tax burden, and the tax incentives have benefited many people and greatly increased the level of social welfare.

    At last, according to the analysis of income distributional effect, consumption effect and welfare effect, suggestions are made from different perspectives.