财税与公共管理学院知识库

中共十九大报告明确提出，“就业是最大的民生”。当前中国正经历着经济转型升级的变化时期，受到产业结构调整、全球经济发展低迷的影响。中国的就业情况较为严峻，结构性就业问题越来越突出。新时代经济高质量发展的目标是为了实现更加充分的就业，而高质量的就业也是人民百姓生活所关注和需求的。税收作为政府宏观经济调控的主要工具，对调节收入分配、刺激经济发展、转变产业结构、实现稳定就业、保障社会和谐具有着重要的作用。广东省作为经济与人口大省，其近几年来经济发展迅速，就业机会相对较多，研究广东省税收负担对就业效应的影响，有利于就业问题的发现与解决。

本文先是总结国内外文献中关于对税收影响就业效应的研究结论，在此基础上分析广东省税收负担的就业效应问题。从理论层面探讨了总体税负和三大税种税负对就业效应的影响机制。其次，根据广东省的税收和就业人口等相关数据分析总体税负以及增值税、企业所得税和个人所得税与广东省就业规模和就业结构的关系及发展现状。然后对税收负担与就业效应展开实证研究，运用面板数据，对广东省总体税负和就业增长进行回归分析，得出总体税负对就业增长具有长期的负效应，再采用VAR模型分析增值税税负、企业所得税税负、个人所得税税负对就业的具体影响程度，实证结果是增值税税负对就业短期具有促进效应，长期将会阻碍就业发展，企业所得税税负对就业一直是存在负面效应，个人所得税税负短期内对就业存在积极效应而长期则会抑制。最后，根据实证结论提出优化就业税收政策，改进增值税政策，扩大企业所得税优惠范围，调节个人所得税等税收政策建议来促进广东省就业的发展。

The report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that "employment is the greatest livelihood of the people". At present, China is going through a period of changes in economic transformation and upgrading, which is affected by the adjustment of industrial structure and the sluggish global economic development. The employment situation in China is relatively severe, and the problem of structural employment is becoming more and more prominent. The goal of high-quality economic development in the new era is to achieve more full employment, and high-quality employment is also the concern and demand of people's lives. As the main tool of the government's macroeconomic regulation and control, taxation plays an important role in adjusting income distribution, stimulating economic development, transforming industrial structure, achieving stable employment and ensuring social harmony. As a province with a large economy and population, Guangdong Province has developed rapidly in recent years and has relatively many employment opportunities. Studying the impact of Guangdong's tax burden on employment effects is conducive to the discovery and resolution of employment problems.
    This paper first summarizes the research conclusions of domestic and foreign literatures on the effect of taxation on employment, and then analyzes the employment effect of tax burden in Guangdong Province on this basis. From the theoretical level, the influence mechanism of the overall tax burden and the three tax burdens on the employment effect is discussed. Secondly, according to the relevant data of Guangdong Province's taxation and employment population, it analyzes the overall tax burden, as well as the relationship between value-added tax, corporate income tax and personal income tax and the employment scale and employment structure of Guangdong Province and its development status. Then carry out an empirical study on the tax burden and employment effect, use panel data, conduct regression analysis on the overall tax burden and employment growth in Guangdong Province, and conclude that the overall tax burden has a long-term negative effect on employment growth, and then use the VAR model to analyze the value-added tax. The specific impact of negative, corporate income tax, and personal income tax on employment. The empirical result is that the value-added tax burden has a short-term promotion effect on employment, and will hinder employment development in the long run. The corporate income tax burden has always had a negative effect on employment. , the personal income tax burden has the effect of short-term promotion and long-term inhibition on employment. Finally, according to the empirical conclusions, it proposes to optimize the employment tax policy, improve the value-added tax policy, expand the preferential scope of corporate income tax, adjust the personal income tax and other tax policy suggestions to promote the development of employment in Guangdong Province.