统计与数据科学学院知识库

在社会发展进程中，城乡关系是最基本的社会经济关系，直接影响着国家稳定和现代化的实现。随着我国社会主要矛盾发生变化，城乡发展不平衡已成为经济社会发展的重大课题。为此，实施新型城镇化与乡村振兴战略，推进城乡融合发展就是历史的必然。甘肃省作为典型的经济欠发达省份，对其城乡融合发展状况进行分析评价不仅有助于科学地选择甘肃城乡融合发展的提升路径，而且可为研究欠发达地区城乡融合高质量发展问题提供样本。

本文利用2010-2019年的面板数据，对甘肃省及其14个市（州）城乡融合发展问题进行了分析研究。首先，基于城乡融合发展理论和统计综合评价理论，结合甘肃省城乡融合发展的现实，从经济、人口、空间、生态、社会五个方面构建了一套有效测评甘肃省城乡融合发展水平的指标体系；选取熵值法测算了甘肃省及其14个市（州）城乡融合发展五大层面的融合度，利用全局主成分分析法测算了甘肃省城乡融合发展的综合水平。其次，通过五分位数对甘肃省及其14个市（州）城乡融合发展水平进行阶段划分，描述了其在时序上的发展特征；同时，对甘肃省及其14个市（州）城乡融合发展水平进行空间对比分析，以观察地区发展差异。最后，利用固定效应模型探究了甘肃省城乡融合发展水平的影响因素，并针对发现的主要问题，提出了相关的对策建议。

通过上述研究，得到以下结论：

（1）总体上甘肃省城乡融合水平呈现上升态势，但融合发展的速度仍然较低；（2）分层来看甘肃省在城乡融合的五大方面均有所改善，其融合增长速度表现为城乡空间融合＞城乡社会生活融合＞城乡经济融合＞城乡人口融合＞城乡生态环境融合；（3）从时序变化来看，甘肃省城乡融合发展水平具有明显的阶段性，先后经历了低水平发展—波动变化—稳定上升的三个阶段；（4）从地区分布来看，甘肃省各市州城乡融合差异呈现缩小趋势，但各地区城乡融合发展依旧存在明显的不均衡；（5）甘肃省城乡融合发展水平受多种因素影响，各主要因素对城乡融合发展的作用强度表现出城镇化水平>政府支持力度>经济发展水平>对外开放水平>科技发展水平。

综合上述结论，分析认为甘肃省城乡融合发展中存在的突出问题是城乡经济发展不平衡、城乡产业关联度较弱、城乡社会建设差距大、城乡空间布局不合理。据此，提出应着力从优化产业结构、加大科技创新、提高城市化率、增强基础设施建设、扩大对外开放、改善生态环境等方面采取有力措施，以推动并实现甘肃省城乡融合的高质量发展。

In the process of social development, the relationship between urban and rural areas is the most basic social and economic relationship, which directly affects the realization of national stability and modernization. With the change of the main social contradictions in our country, the unbalanced development of urban and rural areas has become a major issue of economic and social development. Therefore, it is a historical necessity to implement the new urbanization and rural revitalization strategy and promote the integrated development of urban and rural areas. Gansu Province, as a typical economically underdeveloped province, analyzes and evaluates its urban-rural integration development status, which not only helps to scientifically choose the improvement path of Gansu’s urban-rural integration development, but also provides samples for studying the high-quality development of urban-rural integration in underdeveloped areas.

This paper uses the panel data from 2010 to 2019 to analyze and study the urban-rural integration development of Gansu Province and its 14 cities (states). Firstly, based on the theory of urban-rural integration development and statistical comprehensive evaluation theory, combined with the reality of urban-rural integration development in Gansu Province, a set of indicators system for effectively evaluating the level of urban-rural integration development in Gansu Province is constructed from five aspects: economy, population, space, ecology and society. ; The entropy method is used to calculate the integration degree of Gansu Province and its 14 cities (states) at five levels of urban-rural integration development, and the overall level of urban-rural integration development in Gansu Province is calculated using the global principal component analysis method. Secondly, the urban-rural integration development level of Gansu Province and its 14 cities (states) is divided into stages by quintiles, and its development characteristics in time series are described; Integrate development levels to conduct spatial comparative analysis to observe regional development differences. Finally, the fixed effect model is used to explore the influencing factors of the development level of urban-rural integration in Gansu Province, and for the main problems found, relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.

Through the above research, the following conclusions are drawn:

(1) In general, the level of urban-rural integration in Gansu Province is on the rise, but the speed of integration development is still low; (2) From a hierarchical perspective, Gansu Province has improved in the five major aspects of urban-rural integration, and its integration growth rate is expressed as urban-rural integration. Spatial integration > urban-rural social life integration > urban-rural economic integration > urban-rural population integration > urban-rural ecological environment integration; (3) From the perspective of chronological changes, the development level of urban-rural integration in Gansu Province has obvious stages, and has experienced low-level development-fluctuation successively. Change - three stages of steady rise; (4) From the perspective of regional distribution, the differences in urban-rural integration of cities and prefectures in Gansu Province show a narrowing trend, but there is still an obvious imbalance in the development of urban-rural integration in various regions; (5) The integration of urban and rural development in Gansu Province The level is affected by a variety of factors. The effect of each main factor on the integrated development of urban and rural areas shows the level of urbanization > government support > level of economic development > level of opening to the outside world > level of scientific and technological development.Based on the above conclusions, it is analyzed that the prominent problems in the integrated development of urban and rural areas in Gansu Province are the unbalanced economic development between urban and rural areas, the weak correlation between urban and rural industries, the large gap between urban and rural social construction, and the unreasonable spatial layout of urban and rural areas. Based on this, it is proposed that effective measures should be taken to optimize the industrial structure, increase scientific and technological innovation, increase the urbanization rate, enhance infrastructure construction, expand opening to the outside world, and improve the ecological environment, so as to promote and achieve high-quality urban-rural integration in Gansu Province developing.