人口结构对我国商业养老保险需求的影响研究

LZUFE-KMS > 经济学院

作者	李伟
姓名汉语拼音	liwei
学号	2019000001035
培养单位	兰州财经大学
电话	18719782168
电子邮件	2997972141@qq.com
入学年份	2019-9
学位类别	学术硕士
培养级别	硕士研究生
学科门类	经济学
一级学科名称	理论经济学
学科方向	政治经济学
学科代码	020101
授予学位	经济学硕士
第一导师姓名	柏正杰
第一导师姓名汉语拼音	baizhengjie
第一导师单位	兰州财经大学
第一导师职称	教授
题名	人口结构对我国商业养老保险需求的影响研究
英文题名	Research on the impact of population structure change on China's commercial endowment insurance demand
关键词	人口结构商业养老保险 CHFS2017 数据库 Probit 模型虚拟变量
外文关键词	Population structure ; Commercial endowment insurance ; CHFS2017 ; Probit model ; Dummy variable
摘要	上世纪 80 年代世界上主要国家社会养老保险都采用“现收现付”模式，愈发严重的“老龄化”直接加重各国财政支付压力。世界银行基于此提出了养老保险“三支柱”模式，并希望通过“三支柱”实现养老义务的个人、社会和国家的分担。商业养老保险逐渐开始受到重视。 2021 年中国国家统计年鉴最新统计数据显示 2020 年度我国人口出生率仅为0.852%，数据创下 43 年之最低。目前中国人口结构的严峻形势是多方面（并非仅仅表现为人口出生率下降与人口的“老龄化”），还表现在性别比例失衡，城乡人口占比失衡与地区间人口结构失衡等。基于此现状亟须细化国家、社会和个人养老权责归属的划分。商业养老保险作为社会养老保险之外的重要补充，可以借助其自身独特优势实现其与社会养老保险的优势互补。本文基于人口结构这一视角分析商业养老保险的个人选择问题。其中从人口自然结构、人口社会结构和人口地域结构分别分析，再通过文献阅读和社会关注热点筛选了几组重要指标用以分析其变动产生的影响。文中基于 CHFS-2017 数据库数据使用 Probit 模型进行实证分析。实证结果显示家庭净资产、个人收入等反映个人财富的指标始终都显著地影响到个人意愿，老少抚养比也会正向影响到个人选择商业养老保险的意愿。年龄对于个人选择商业养老保险的意愿影响是显著的但并非总是正向的。性别对于个体意愿的影响并不显著。个人受教育水平会显著地正向地影响个人选择，而是否有伴侣和是否为正规就业的影响都不十分显著。总体看，众多指标变动产生的影响存在地区性差异，但并非所有指标都显著地存在地区间差异。人口结构对于商业养老保险选择意愿的影响存在一定的城乡差异性：影响城镇居民是否选择商业养老保险的因素更加多元，而农村居民下的影响因素更加集中于财富与家庭方面。
英文摘要	In the 1980s, the global situation of "population aging" intensified. At that time, the social endowment insurance of major countries in the world adopted the "pay as you go" model, and the "aging" exacerbated the financial payment pressure of various countries. Based on this, the world bank puts forward the "three pillars" model of pension insurance, and hopes to realize the sharing of pension obligations among individuals, society and countries through the "three pillars". Commercial endowment insurance began to be paid more and more attention. The latest statistics from China's National Statistical Yearbook in 2021 show that China's birth rate in 2020 is only 0.852%, the lowest in 43 years. At present, China's population structure has also undergone significant changes in many aspects (not just the decline of the birth rate and the "aging" of the population).It is also reflected in the imbalance of gender ratio, the imbalance of urban and rural population and the imbalance of population structure among regions. Based on this situation, it is urgent to refine the attribution of national, social and individual pension. As an important supplement to social endowment insurance, commercial endowment insurance can complement social endowment insurance with its own unique advantages. Based on the perspective of population structure change, this paper analyzes the personal choice of commercial endowment insurance. It is analyzed from the natural structure of population, social structure of population and regional structure of population. Then, through papers reading and social hot spots, several groups of important indicators are selected to analyze the impact of their changes. Based on chfs-2017 database’s data, this paper uses Probit model for empirical analysis. Finally, results show that household net assets, personal income and other indicators reflecting personal wealth always significantly affect personal will, and the dependency ratio of old and young will also positively affect personal choice of commercial endowment insurance, and the influence of age is not always positive. There is no significant gender difference in the choice of commercial endowment insurance. The level of individual education will have a significant positive impact, while the impact of whether there is a partner and whether they are formal employment is not very significant. There are regional differences in the choice of commercial endowment insurance, but not all indicators have significant regional differences. Urban and rural residents also have their own characteristics in choosing commercial endowment insurance: the impression factors of whether urban residents choose commercial endowment insurance are more diverse, while the influencing factors of rural residents are more concentrated in wealth and family.
学位类型	硕士
答辩日期	2022-05-21
学位授予地点	甘肃省兰州市
研究方向	劳动关系与社会保障制度研究
语种	中文
论文总页数	68
参考文献总数	56
馆藏号	0004101
保密级别	公开
中图分类号	F0/42
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/32320
专题	经济学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	李伟. 人口结构对我国商业养老保险需求的影响研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2022.

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