统计与数据科学学院知识库

  近年来，我国不断健全的经济制度和不断完善的金融服务推动着银行存贷款利率由过去的指定标准转向市场化。在此背景下，金融市场出现了许多创新型融资渠道和金融工具，这为资金的供给方和需求方进入资本市场提供了更有利的选择。融资渠道和金融工具的不断扩展与创新对商业银行传统存贷款业务造成了巨大影响，资金开始脱离银行系统，这种资金脱离金融中介体系直接进行融资交易的现象也被称为金融脱媒。金融脱媒虽然对商业银行的传统业务造成了冲击，但是也促进了其改革转型和业务创新，同时在金融体系变革的环境下，商业银行也有着创造全新业务增长方式的需求。本文从金融脱媒影响商业银行业务绩效角度出发，分析金融脱媒对不同类型商业银行、商业银行不同业务的影响；并在此基础上研究相应的影响路径。本文研究结果对理解我国商业银行目前所采取的经营策略和特征，促进商业银行和中央银行加强金融体系改革，正确应对金融风险，提高我国商业银行的价值创造和抵抗风险能力有着重要的理论意义和现实意义。

  本文在系统梳理国内外相关文献和我国央行及财政部等重要政府职能部门文件的基础上，进行了理论与实证两方面工作，理论分析方面：深入分析了金融脱媒对商业银行业务绩效的影响机理，并指出金融脱媒对商业银行业务绩效的影响并非同质化的——金融脱媒对不同类型的商业银行和同一商业银行的不同业务有着不同程度甚至是不同方向的影响；从影响路径上进行分析，一方面，金融脱媒在影响社会资金的融通方式之后对市场利率的短期变化造成了影响，从而使得银行绩效受到冲击；另一方面，金融脱媒通过影响融资方式进一步影响了社会整体的固定资产投资，最终对商业银行业务绩效产生影响。实证分析方面：以2015—2022年的a股上市银行为样本，对金融脱媒影响商业银行业务绩效的作用效果及影响机理进行实证检验。其中总效应检验的实证结果表明，金融脱媒使得商业银行业务绩效下降，其影响程度对国有大型银行最大、股份制银行次之、城市商业银行最小；此外实证检验也表明金融脱媒对银行不同类型业务影响各不相同，且基本上呈消极影响，但也有少数业务受金融脱媒的正面影响比如中间业务等。对机理的实证检验发现，一方面，金融脱媒使得市场利率下降，并通过利率敏感性缺口和久期缺口对商业银行业务绩效产生了负面影响；另一方面，金融脱媒促进了固定资产投资增长，通过固定资产投资增长改善了当期的宏观经济预期，促进了商业银行业务绩效增长，但这种影响与利率渠道相比表现并不明显。

  In recent years, China continuous improvement of economic system and continuous improvement of financial services have promoted the transformation of bank deposit and loan interest rates from the designated standards in the past to marketization. In this context, many innovative financing channels and financial instruments have emerged in the financial market, which provide more favorable options for the supply side and the demand side of funds to enter the capital market. The continuous expansion and innovation of financing channels and financial instruments has had a huge impact on the traditional deposit and loan business of commercial banks, and funds have begun to leave the banking system. Although financial disintermediation has had an impact on the traditional business of commercial banks, it has also promoted its reform, transformation and business innovation. At the same time, in the context of financial system changes, commercial banks also have the need to create a new way of business growth. From the perspective of financial disintermediation affecting the business performance of commercial banks, this paper analyzes the impact of financial disintermediation on different types of commercial banks and different businesses of commercial banks; and on this basis, studies the corresponding impact paths. The research results of this paper have important theoretical significance and theoretical significance for understanding the current business strategies and characteristics of commercial banks in my country, promoting commercial banks and central banks to strengthen financial system reform, correctly responding to financial risks, and improving the value creation and risk resistance capabilities of commercial banks in my country. realistic meaning.

  On the basis of systematically reviewing relevant domestic and foreign literatures and documents of important government functional departments such as The People's Bank of China and the Ministry of Finance, this paper has carried out theoretical and empirical work. In terms of theoretical analysis, it deeply analyzes the impact of financial disintermediation on the business performance of commercial banks. mechanism, and pointed out that the impact of financial disintermediation on the business performance of commercial banks is not homogeneous—financial disintermediation has different degrees or even different directions on different types of commercial banks and different businesses of the same commercial bank; from the impact path On the one hand, financial disintermediation has an impact on short-term changes in market interest rates after affecting the financing method of social funds, thus making bank performance impacted; on the other hand, financial disintermediation further affects society by affecting financing methods. The overall fixed asset investment will ultimately have an impact on the business performance of commercial banks. Empirical analysis: Take the A-share listed banks from 2015 to 2022 as a sample, to empirically test the effect and mechanism of financial disintermediation on the business performance of commercial banks. The empirical results of the total effect test show that financial disintermediation reduces the business performance of commercial banks, and its impact is the largest for large state-owned banks, followed by joint-stock banks, and the smallest for city commercial banks. The business impact varies and is basically negative, but there are also a few businesses that are positively affected by financial disintermediation, such as intermediary business. The empirical test of the mechanism finds that, on the one hand, financial disintermediation reduces market interest rates and negatively affects commercial bank business performance through the interest rate sensitivity gap and duration gap; on the other hand, financial disintermediation promotes the growth of fixed asset investment , through the growth of fixed asset investment, it improves the current macroeconomic expectations and promotes the growth of commercial bank business performance, but this impact is not obvious compared with the interest rate channel.