作者张钧博
姓名汉语拼音zhangjunbo
学号2019000002010
培养单位兰州财经大学
电话17615151008
电子邮件1321388806@qq.com
入学年份2019-9
学位类别学术硕士
培养级别硕士研究生
学科门类经济学
一级学科名称应用经济学
学科方向国际贸易学
学科代码020206
授予学位经济学硕士
第一导师姓名杨志龙
第一导师姓名汉语拼音yangzhilong
第一导师单位兰州财经大学
第一导师职称教授
题名中国对RCEP成员国高新技术产品的出口贸易潜力研究-基于随机前沿引力模型
英文题名China's exports of high-tech products to RCEP member countries Research on Trade Potential—Based on Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model
关键词高新技术产品 RCEP 随即前沿引力模型 贸易效率 贸易潜力
外文关键词New and high-tech product ; RCEP ; Stochastic frontier gravity model ; Trade efficiency ; Trade potentialities
摘要

2020年11月15日,历经8年的谈判,RCEP(区域经贸伙伴关系)正式签署,世界上最大的经济合作区域建成,区域内包含了世界上三成的人口和经济总量,协议的签署能够带动区域内国家的贸易经济。2007年中国高新技术产品对RCEP区域出口额仅为832亿美元,2019年中国高新技术产品RCEP区域内国家出口额增长到1990亿美元,13年间增长了近2因此在RCEP顺利签署的背景下,使得中国同区域内国家的贸易会更加紧密,本文对区域内成员国高新技术产品的贸易研究具有一定的理论意义。

论文合相关国际贸易理论,在査阅了大量文献的基础上首先介绍了中国政府和企业对于高新技术产品的研发投入以及中国RCEP成员国高新技术产品出口贸易的发展历程,研究发现对于高新技术产品的研发投入增长较快尤其是近几年,出口贸易处于虽有小幅度波动,但始终处于增长趋势。然后通过分析高新技术产品出口贸易结构,发现中国对RCEP成员国出口结构主要以计算机与通信技术产品与电子技术产品为主,并且出口目的国主要为日本、韩国、新加坡等发达国家和一些如越南、马来西亚等新型发展中国家。紧接着论文论述分析了中国高新技术产品的贸易理论及影响因素,如:伙伴国知识产权保护、双边人均GDP、伙伴国创新能力、伙伴国高等教育水平、伙伴国贸易自由度、双边FTA等,通过对影响因素的分析奠定了文章的理论基础。在实证部分本文采用时变随机前沿引力模型进行分析,从整体上测算了中国对RCEP各国高新技术产品的出口贸易效率值,从不同维度上进行产品分类后的各个分类别产品的出口效率值,从而来分析贸易潜力大小,并通过贸易非效率模型分析影响因素。最后针对中国对RCEP成员国高新技术产品出口贸易的发展提出了若干政策建议。

实证研究发现,总体上中国对RCEP区域内国家高新技术产品出口贸易效率依然较低,出口贸易潜力依然存在较大的释放空间。其中只有对新加坡的出口效率一直维持在较高以上,对日本、韩国等高新技术产品强国出口市场基础大但出口贸易效率较低。对于马来西亚、越南等新型发展中国家经济体的出口贸易效率值在攀升较快。产品细分类别后不同类别产品之间的出口贸易效率差异较大,对区域内不同国家的出口贸易效率也存在差异。核心解释变量经济规模、人口对中国高新技术产品的出口贸易有显著地促进作用,而地理距离变量则有显著地抑制

 

了高新技术产品的出口非效率项影响因素分析结果显示,双边协定、伙伴国贸易自由度、东道国创新能力、伙伴国高能教育程度等非效率项变量与中国RCEP成员国高新技术产品出口额相关,而伙伴国知识产权保护则与中国对RCEP成员国高新技术产品出口额负相关。

英文摘要

On November 15, 2020, after 8 years of negotiations, the RCEP (Regional Economic and Trade Partnership) was officially signed, and the world's largest economic cooperation area was completed. The area contains 30% of the world's population and economic aggregate. The signing of the agreement can Drive the trade economy of countries in the region. In 2007, the export value of China's high-tech products to the RCEP region was only 83.2 billion US dollars. In 2019, the export value of China's high-tech products to the countries in the RCEP region increased to 199 billion US dollars, an increase of nearly 2 times in 13 years. Therefore, under the background of the successful signing of RCEP, the trade between China and the countries in the region will be closer. This paper has certain theoretical significance for the research on the trade of high-tech products in the member countries in the region.

Combining relevant international trade theories and reviewing a large number of documents, the thesis first introduces the Chinese government and enterprises' investment in research and development of high-tech products and the development process of China's export trade of high-tech products to RCEP member countries. The R&D investment in technological products has grown rapidly, especially in recent years. Although the export trade has fluctuated slightly, it has always been on a growth trend. Then, by analyzing the export trade structure of high-tech products, it is found that China's export structure to RCEP member countries is mainly computer and communication technology products and electronic technology products, and the export destination countries are mainly developed countries such as Japan, South Korea, Singapore and some countries such as Vietnam , Malaysia and other emerging developing countries. Then the paper discusses and analyzes the trade theory and influencing factors of China's high-tech products, such as: intellectual property protection of partner countries, bilateral per capita GDP, innovation capability of partner countries, higher education level of partner countries, trade freedom of partner countries, bilateral FTA, etc. The theoretical foundation of the article is established by analyzing the influencing factors. In the empirical part, this paper adopts the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model for analysis, and calculates the export trade efficiency value of China's high-tech products in RCEP countries as a whole, and the export efficiency value of each sub-category product after product classification from different dimensions. In order to analyze the trade potential, and analyze the influencing factors through the trade inefficiency model. Finally, some policy suggestions are put forward for the development of China's export trade of high-tech products to RCEP member countries.

Empirical research finds that, on the whole, China's export trade efficiency of high-tech products to countries in the RCEP region is still low, and there is still a large room for release of export trade potential. Among them, only the export efficiency to Singapore has been maintained at a relatively high level, and the export market base to Japan, South Korea and other high-tech product powerhouses is large but the export trade efficiency is low. The export trade efficiency value for new developing country economies such as Malaysia and Vietnam is rising rapidly. After the products are subdivided into categories, the export trade efficiency between different categories of products is quite different, and there are also differences in the export trade efficiency to different countries in the region. The core explanatory variables of economic scale and population have a significant role in promoting the export trade of China's high-tech products, while the geographical distance variable significantly inhibits the export of high-tech products. The analysis results of the influencing factors of the non-efficiency item show that the non-efficiency item variables such as bilateral free trade agreement, partner country's trade freedom, host country's innovation ability, partner country's high-energy education level and other non-efficiency variables are positively correlated with China's high-tech product exports to RCEP member countries. The protection of intellectual property rights in partner countries is negatively correlated with China's exports of high-tech products to RCEP member countries.

 

学位类型硕士
答辩日期2022-05-29
学位授予地点甘肃省兰州市
语种中文
论文总页数66
参考文献总数46
馆藏号0004115
保密级别公开
中图分类号F74/228
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/32274
专题国际经济与贸易学院
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
张钧博. 中国对RCEP成员国高新技术产品的出口贸易潜力研究-基于随机前沿引力模型[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2022.
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