国际经济与贸易学院知识库

改革开放初期，中国制造业发展两头在外的粗放型经济，凭借丰裕的劳动力要素，实现了由“小”到“大”的飞跃，带来了经济建设的巨大成功，中国如今已是名副其实的制造业大国。中国作为世界上最大的发展中国家，制造业始终是经济发展的基石。现如今，中国面临着“人口红利”的式微和发达国家“制造业回归”的困境，制造业处于内外双重挤压的境遇，呈现出“大而不强”的现状。刨根追底，在于我国制造业自主研发的高科技核心技术比较贫乏，导致其过度依赖于国外进口。因此，提高制造业生产效率，摆脱制造业“低端锁定”成为了当前亟待解决的问题。生产性服务业具有高附加值、高技术等特点，作为中间投入，在制造业产业链中起着连接各个产业，润滑部门衔接的纽带作用，是推动制造业效率提升的关键因素。在双循环全面开放新发展格局背景下，本文对生产性服务业开放对制造业全要素生产率的影响展开研究。

本文首先梳理了国内外关于生产性服务业与制造业发展相关的文献并分析了行业现状，发现生产性服务业开放通过三条路径影响制造业全要素生产率：一是开放提供了大量优质的中间投入，可以提高制造业产品的复杂度；二是对专业服务进行外包，专注发展核心业务，重塑比较优势；三是开放产生巨大的外溢效应，通过成本、竞争、学习和示范以及集聚效应来促进制造业技术进步。

在理论分析的基础上，选取2000年-2020年面板数据进行实证分析，将生产性服务业细分为八大行业，将制造业按要素密集度分为三大类，检验行业异质性的影响。结果显示，生产性服务业开放对制造业TFP存在显著正向影响。从扩展分析来看，运输服务、保险服务、金融服务、建设服务、咨询服务和其他商业服务这六个行业对制造业全行业TFP呈现显著的促进作用，而信息服务和知识产权服务则呈现显著的抑制作用。因此，对于生产性服务业的开放应采取差异化发展策略，定制靶向开放政策，制造业要充分利用好溢出效应，进一步提高行业全要素生产率，真正为其转型升级赋能。

In the early days of reform and opening up, China's manufacturing industry developed an extensive economy with two ends. With abundant labor factors, it achieved a leap from "small" to "big", which brought great success in economic construction. China is now a veritable manufacturing powerhouse. As the largest developing country in the world, China's manufacturing industry has always been the cornerstone of economic development. Today, China is facing the dilemma of the decline of the "demographic dividend" and the "return of the manufacturing industry" in developed countries. The bottom line is that the high-tech core technology independently developed by my country's manufacturing industry is relatively poor, which leads to its excessive dependence on foreign imports. Therefore, improving the production efficiency of the manufacturing industry and getting rid of the "low-end lock-in" of the manufacturing industry has become an urgent problem to be solved at present. Producer service industry has the characteristics of high added value and high technology. As an intermediate input, it acts as a link between various industries and lubrication departments in the manufacturing industry chain, and is a key factor to promote the efficiency of manufacturing industry. In the context of the new development pattern of dual circulation comprehensive opening up, this dissertation studies the impact of the opening of producer services on the total factor productivity of manufacturing.

This dissertation firstly combs the domestic and foreign literature on the development of producer services and manufacturing industry and analyzes the current situation of the industry, and finds that the opening of producer services affects the total factor productivity of manufacturing through three paths: First, opening provides a large number of high-quality intermediate inputs, which can increase the complexity of manufacturing products; the second is to outsource professional services, focus on developing core businesses, and reshape comparative advantages; third, opening up produces huge spillover effects, which promotes the technological progress of manufacturing industry through cost, competition, learning and demonstration, and agglomeration effects.

On the basis of theoretical analysis, the panel data from 2000 to 2020 is selected for empirical analysis, the producer service industry is subdivided into eight major industries, and the manufacturing industry is divided into three major categories according to factor intensity, to test the impact of industry heterogeneity. The results show that the opening of producer services has a significant positive impact on manufacturing TFP. From the perspective of extended analysis, the six industries of transportation services, insurance services, financial services, construction services, consulting services and other business services have significantly promoted the TFP of the entire manufacturing industry, while information services and intellectual property services show a significant inhibitory effect. Therefore, for the opening of producer services, a differentiated development strategy should be adopted, and targeted opening policies should be customized. The manufacturing industry should make full use of the spillover effect, further improve the total factor productivity of the industry, and truly empower its transformation and upgrading.