财税与公共管理学院知识库

  改革开放以来，我国经济发展突飞猛进，财政分权体制发挥了重要的作用，但地方政府在这一制度作用下，受经济和晋升激励的影响，会偏向于基础设施投资，影响地方财政支出结构。七普数据显示出我国人口流动规模庞大，必然会对地方财政支出产生影响。财政分权下的经济激励也使得地区间发展存在差距，引起人口流动，从而影响地方财政支出。所以本文将考虑财政分权下人口流动对地方财政支出的影响。

  本文的主要内容有：第一部分为绪论，介绍了本文的选题背景和理论现实意义、相关的文献综述、研究内容和方法、亮点与不足。第二部分为相关概念及基本理论，首先对财政分权、人口流动和地方财政支出进行了概念界定，然后从财政分权理论、人口流动理论和财政支出增长模型提出了本文的理论基础。第三部分分析了财政分权、人口流动和地方财政支出的发展情况，并研究了财政分权、人口流动对地方财政支出的作用机理，以及财政分权下人口流动对地方财政支出的作用机理。第四部分为财政分权下人口流动对地方财政支出的实证分析，通过变量选取和模型介绍，按照全国、人口流入地、人口流出地分别进行分析。最后一部分是本文的结论以及政策建议，通过之前的理论基础和实证检验结果，得出一些结论并且提出切实可行的政策建议。

  本文得出的主要结论有：第一，财政支出分权在三种层面下都对财政支出规模和结构呈现正相关性关系，并且对人均生产型支出的影响系数均大于人均消费型的系数。第二，在全国层面，人口流动对人均地方财政支出、人均生产型支出是显著的正相关关系，对人均消费型支出是显著的负相关关系；在人口流入地层面，人口流入除了对人均维持型支出不显著外，其余都是显著的正相关关系；在人口流出地层面，人口流出对人均维持型、人均生产型支出有正相关关系，说明人口流入地相较于人口流出地财政支出能够更好地与人口流动相匹配。第三，财政支出规模相对合理，支出结构有一定的不合理性。

  基于上述结论提出如下政策建议：第一，明确央地责任，完善考核制度；第二，完善人口流动的制度机制；第三，维持支出规模正增长，引导支出结构合理。

   Since the reform and opening-up, our country's economic development has been made tremendous success, and the fiscal decentralization regime has played an important role. However, under the role of this system, local governments will be affected by economic and promotion incentives, and will favor infrastructure investment and affect the structure of local fiscal expenditure. The Data of the Seventh National Population Census shows that the scale of population flow in China is huge, which will also have an impact on local fiscal expenditure. Economic incentives under fiscal decentralization have also led to development disparities between regions, causing population movements, which affect local fiscal expenditure. So this thesis considers the impact of population flow under fiscal decentralization on local fiscal expenditure.

   The main content of this thesis is as follows: The first section is a prolegomenon, which describes the backdrop and theoretical realistic meaning, the relevant review of literature, investigation content and methodology, and the bright spot and deficiency. The next section is correlative notions and basic theories, which first shows the concept of fiscal decentralization, population flow and local fiscal expenditure, and then presents the theoretical basis of this thesis from the theory of fiscal decentralization, population flow theory and fiscal expenditure growth model. The third section analyzes the development of fiscal decentralization, population flow and local fiscal expenditure, and studies the mechanism of fiscal decentralization and population flow on local fiscal expenditure, and the mechanism of population flow under fiscal decentralization on local fiscal expenditure. The fourth section is the empirical analysis of population flow under fiscal decentralization on local fiscal expenditure, which is analyzed according to the whole country, population inflow and population outflow through variable selection and model introduction. The final section is the findings and policy advice of this thesis, through the previous theoretical basis and empirical test results, some findings are drawn and practical policy recommendations are proposed.

   The main findings drawn in this thesis are: First, the decentralization of fiscal expenditure shows a positive correlation relationship on the scale and structure of fiscal expenditure at three levels, and the coefficient of influence on per capita production expenditure is greater than that of per capita consumption. Second, at the national level, population flow is a significant positive correlation between per capita local fiscal expenditure and per capita production expenditure, and a significant negative correlation relationship for per capita consumption expenditure; at the level of population inflow, population inflow is not significant except for per capita maintenance expenditure, the rest are significant positive correlation relationship; at the population outflow level, population outflow has a positive correlation between per capita maintenance and per capita production expenditure, indicating that the fiscal expenditure of the population inflow area can better match the population flow than the population outflow place. Third, the scale of fiscal expenditure is relatively reasonable, and the structure of fiscal expenditure has certain irrationality.

   Under these findings, some practical advice as follows: first, clarify the responsibility of authorities, and refine the assessment system; second, improve the institutional mechanism of population flow; third, maintain positive growth in the scale of expenditure and guide the rationalization of the expenditure structure.