财税与公共管理学院知识库

当前，我国社会主要矛盾已经转化成为人民日益增长的美好生活需要和不平衡不充分的发展之间的矛盾。在财政领域内，我国财政收支发展不平衡，长期处在失衡状态中，财政收支之间的矛盾作为财政分配的基本矛盾，不论哪种类型的国家，也不论该国家处在什么样的发展阶段中，都要面对该矛盾问题。目前，我国地方财政收支缺口规模只增不减，省际间财政收支缺口差异显著，因此，为改善区域间、省际间的发展不平衡状况，研究我国地方财政收支缺口、以及省际间财政收支缺口差异形成的原因便显得尤为重要。

本文在学者们的研究基础上，以2009—2018年我国省级面板数据为样本，首先，利用绝对差异和相对差异指标测度了我国省际间财政收支缺口差异系数，并以此作为被解释变量；其次，本文为研究我国省际间财政收支缺口差异的形成原因，从经济因素、财政因素、人口因素、环境因素等四个方面构建了影响我国省际间财政收支缺口差异的因素体系框架，并利用因子分析法进行了实证分析，研究结果表明：经济因素、财政因素、人口因素、环境因素对我国省际间财政收支缺口差异会造成不同影响。第一、“经济因子”和“人口因子”对我国省际间财政收支缺口差异存在显著负影响，这两类因子能起到缩小我国省际间财政收支缺口差异的积极作用，但“环境因子”、“财政因子”对我国省际间财政收支缺口差异存在正影响，前者的影响效果显著，后者的影响效果不显著，这两类因子会进一步扩大我国省际间财政收支缺口差异。第二，在4类因子中，“经济因子”对我国省际间财政收支缺口差异的影响最大，其影响程度达到10.01%；“人口因子”和“环境因子”对我国省际间财政收支缺口的影响次之，其影响程度分别为6.92%、3.77%，“财政因子”对我国省际间财政收支缺口差异的影响最弱，其影响程度为0.39%。

结合实证结果和所构建的省际间财政收支缺口差异的影响因素框架体系，本文将提出以下建议：一是构建合理的央地两级财权、事权格局；二是进一步优化地方财政平衡机制；三是加强财政法治建设、提升财政法治治理能力；四是促进经济、人口内循环，促进省际协调发展。

At present, the main social contradiction in China has been transformed into the contradiction between the people's growing needs for a better life and unbalanced and insufficient development. In the financial field, the development of China's fiscal revenue and expenditure is unbalanced and has been in an unbalanced state for a long time. As the basic contradiction of fiscal distribution, the contradiction between fiscal revenue and expenditure, no matter what type of country or what stage of development the country is in,have to face this contradiction problem. So far, the scale of China's local fiscal revenue and expenditure gap only increases, and there are significant differences in the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap between provinces. Therefore, in order to improve the development imbalance between regions and provinces, it is particularly important to study the reasons for the formation of China's local fiscal revenue and expenditure gap and the reasons for the formation of the fiscal revenue and expenditure gap between provinces.

Based on the research of scholars, this paper takes the provincial panel data of China from 2009 to 2018 as the sample. Firstly, the absolute difference and relative difference indicators are used to measure the difference coefficient of inter provincial fiscal revenue and expenditure gap in China, which is used as the explanatory variable. Secondly, in order to study the causes of China's inter provincial fiscal revenue and expenditure gap, this paper constructs a factor framework system affecting China's inter provincial fiscal revenue and expenditure gap from four aspects: economic factors, fiscal factors, demographic factors and environmental factors, and makes an empirical analysis by using the factor analysis method. The results show that: economic factors, fiscal factors, demographic factors Environmental factors will have different effects on the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces. The results show that: economic factors, financial factors, demographic factors and environmental factors will have different effects on the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces in China. First, "economic factor" and "population factor" have a significant negative impact on the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces in China, these two types of factors can play a positive role in narrowing the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces in China, but "environmental factor" and "fiscal factor" have a positive impact on the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces in China, the former has a significant effect, while the latter has no significant effect, these two kinds of factors will further expand the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces in China. Second, among the four types of factors, "economic factor" has the greatest impact on the gap of fiscal revenue and expenditure between provinces, and its impact degree reaches 10.01%; "Population factor" and "environmental factor" have the second impact on China's inter provincial fiscal revenue and expenditure gap, with the impact degree of 6.92% and 3.77% respectively. The "fiscal factor" has the weakest impact on China's inter provincial fiscal revenue and expenditure gap, with the impact degree of 0.39%.

Combined with the empirical results and the constructed influencing factor framework, this paper will put forward suggestions from the following aspects: First, to build a reasonable central and local two levels of financial power, authority pattern; Second, to improve the mechanism for balancing local finances;Third, to strengthen the construction of financial rule by law, enhance the ability of financial rule by law governance; Fourth, to promote the internal circulation of economy and population and promote the coordinated development between provinces.