金融学院知识库

自我国经济进入新常态以来，市场经济的发展呈现出欣欣向荣之势，行业运作形态也日趋多元化。在此背景下，债券市场的发展也进入了新的时期。增发债券作为一种行之有效的直接融资手段被许多上市公司所青睐，上市公司将融资获取的资金用于直接投资或者间接投资，以此壮大自身的经营规模，这也在极大程度上反哺了债券市场，使其蓬勃发展。然而，自二零一四年开始，债券市场“零”违约的局面被打破，债券作为一种金融融资工具也展现出别样的风险性。此后，债券违约在我国市场中日趋常态化，引起了学者们的广泛关注，大批研究者和投资人也逐步对我国的债券违约理论体系展开研究。二零一八年则是我国债券市场大规模违约事件迸发的重要年份，诸多主体信用评级为A级以上的信用良好的上市公司也相继出现违约。债券违约的激增不但给中国债券市场带来恐慌，也极大伤害了广大投资人的切身利益。而自二零一八年后我国债券市场的形势仍不容乐观，违约债券主体的数量虽不及上二零一八年度，但违约金额总量皆远超了二零一八年的总量并呈现逐年上涨的趋势。所以，在现阶段深入分析导致上市公司发生债券违约的诱因，并以此为参考建立风险预警系统，一方面将有助于尽可能地减少债券违约的出现，削弱其对整体市场的负面影响；另一方面也有助于投资者切实有效地维护自身权益，帮助他们识别债券发行背后的风险，构建健康有序的债券市场，从而推动整体市场的合理出清。

本论文以首个发生实质债券违约的3A级信用评级主体——上海华信国际集团有限公司为例。通过查阅国外学者在债券违约方面的相关研究文献，并综合梳理国内学术界在债务违约方面的有关基础理论与违约风险防范研究成果，再根据时下的市场经济形势和行业发展特征，由外向内多层次地分析上海华信集团违约发生的始末，最后得出相应的案例启示和对策建议。文中首先介绍了债券违约在国内中从无到有、从少到多的演变过程，从宏观的角度探讨影响企业发生违约的成因，主要从债券违约主体的数量及违约金额总量、违约主体的行业分布及企业性质分布、企业发生债券违约后主要采取的处置方式等方面总结我国上市公司债券违约的主流影响因素。其次，通过介绍了本文选取违约案例发生的始末、此次违约造成的严重后果，进一步从微观角度探求企业自身存在的问题。从企业现金流的角度研究了企业违约的根源，即企业激进的扩张国外市场，导致自身偿付能力差，并使其整体的经营状况日趋不善；企业在主营业务的营销上存在一定问题，激进的销售模式使得自身存在大量逾期未能收回的应收账款，导致自身的风险抵御能力因流动性差而不断下降；相关监管机构介入调查控股股东，负面消息的频发限制了企业的再融资功能，造成企业资金流出现断裂，发生债务违约情况。与此同时，针对案例发生违约前是否存在一定的征兆，通过选取的Z值模型，以公司的财务数据为样本验证其发生违约的概率。最后，结合案例分析的结论，阐述其对当前防范中小民营企业违约风险、确保融资市场安全运作的作用。进而分别从公司、投资人、信用评估机构，以及市场监督管理组织等四大方面给出了对策建议。

Since domestic economy has entered a new normal, the development of the market economy has shown a thriving trend, and the operating forms of industry operating forms have become increasingly diversified. In this paper, the development of the bond market has also entered a new period. As an effective direct financing method, additional bond issuance is favored by many listed companies. Listed companies use the funds obtained from financing for direct investment or indirect investment to expand their business scale. This has also fed back the bond market to a great extent, making it flourish. However, since 2014, the "zero" default situation in the bond market has been broken, and bonds which is a financial financing tool have also shown different risks. Since then, bond default has become more and more normal in our market, which has attracted widespread attention from scholars. A large number of researchers and investors have also gradually carried out research on the theoretical system of bond default in our country. 2018 was an important year for large-scale default events in our country's bond market, and many listed companies with good credit ratings of A-level or above also defaulted one after another. The surge in bond defaults has not only brought panic to the Chinese bond market, but also greatly hurt the vital interests of investors.Since 2018, the situation of domestic bond market is still not optimistic. Although the number of defaulted bond entities is not as good as that in 2018, the total amount of defaulted bonds has far exceeded the total in 2018. increasing trend year by year. Therefore, at this stage, we should deeply analyze the incentives that lead to bond defaults of listed companies, and use this as a reference to establish a risk early warning system. On the one hand, it will help minimize the occurrence of bond defaults and weaken its negative impact on the overall market. On the other hand, it will also help investors to effectively protect their rights and interests, and help them identify the risks behind bond issuance, and build healthy orderly bond market, thereby promoting the rational clearing of the overall market.

This paper takes Shanghai Huaxin International Group Co., Ltd. as an example, the first 3A-level credit rating subject with substantial bond default. By consulting foreign scholars' relevant research literature on bond default, and comprehensively sorting out the relevant basic theories and default risk prevention research results of domestic academic circles on debt default. Then, according to the current market economic situation and industry development characteristics, it analyzes the beginning and end of the default of Shanghai Huaxin Group from the outside to the inside. Finally, the corresponding case inspiration and countermeasure suggestions are drawn. This paper firstly introduces the evolution process of bond default in China from scratch, from less to more, and discusses the causes that affect the default of enterprises from a macro perspective. This paper mainly summarizes the mainstream influencing factors of bond default of listed companies in my country from the aspects of the number of bond defaulting entities and the total amount of defaulting, the industry distribution of defaulting entities and the distribution of the nature of enterprises, and the main disposal methods adopted by enterprises after bond defaults. Secondly, by introducing the beginning and end of the default case selected in this paper and the serious consequences caused by this default, it further explores the problems existing in the enterprise itself from a micro perspective. From the perspective of corporate cash flow, this paper studies the root cause of corporate default, that is, companies aggressively expand foreign markets, resulting in poor solvency and worsening overall operating conditions. The company has certain problems in the marketing of its main business. The aggressive sales model has resulted in a large number of overdue accounts receivable that cannot be recovered, resulting in a continuous decline in its risk resistance ability due to poor liquidity. Relevant regulatory agencies have intervened to investigate the controlling shareholder, and the frequent occurrence of negative news has limited the company's refinancing function, resulting in a break in the company's capital flow and debt defaults. At the same time, according to whether there are certain signs before the default of the case, through the selected Z-value model, the company's financial data is used as a sample to verify the probability of default. Finally, combined with the conclusion of the case analysis, it expounds its role in preventing the default risk of small and medium-sized private enterprises and ensuring the safe operation of the financing market. Then it gives countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects: companies, investors, credit evaluation agencies, and market supervision and management organizations.