OFDI对中国产品出口持续时间的影响研究

作者	汪倩倩
姓名汉语拼音	Wang Qianqian
学号	2019000002009
培养单位	兰州财经大学
电话	15846571341
电子邮件	1007047421@qq.com
入学年份	2019-9
学位类别	学术硕士
培养级别	硕士研究生
学科门类	经济学
一级学科名称	应用经济学
学科方向	国际贸易学
学科代码	020206
授予学位	经济学硕士学位
第一导师姓名	胡静寅
第一导师姓名汉语拼音	Hu Jingyin
第一导师单位	兰州财经大学
第一导师职称	教授
题名	OFDI对中国产品出口持续时间的影响研究
英文题名	Research on the impact of OFDI on the duration of Chinese product exports
关键词	OFDI 出口持续时间异质品国别差异
外文关键词	Outward foreign direct investment ; Export duration ; Heterogeneous products ; Country-specific differences
摘要	伴随着经济一体化迅速发展，中国在全球市场的参与度不断攀升，对外直接投资（OFDI)与出口贸易的关系愈加紧密。对外投资合作大国的地位持续巩固，进一步深化了中国与其他国家的经贸关系，但是否会延长中国出口持续时间，缓解出口企业生存时间短、出口市场不稳定的窘境，则是值得探究的一个问题。本文对中国 OFDI 对出口持续时间的影响研究具有一定的理论义，对中国推动 OFDI 结构优化升级可以提供一定的借鉴。本文基于中国 OFDI 和出口持续时间的现状分析，选定影响较大的 18 国作为研究对象。采用 CEPII-BACI 数据库中 2004-2017 年中国 OFDI 的 18 个东道国的HS6 分位产品数据，运用非参数 K-M 生存分析法和离散时间 Cloglog 模型，先从整体实证研究 OFDI 对中国产品出口持续时间的影响，再进一步从产品类别和东道国经济水平两种角度分别探讨了 OFDI 对出口持续时间影响的异质性体现。研究发现，中国产品出口生存中位数仅为 1-3 年，5 年后超过70%贸易关系失败，但较前期研究结果出口持续能力有所改善。中国对东道国投资存量越大，双边贸易关系失败的风险率越高，出口持续时间缩短，二者呈现显著的替代关系。OFDI 对劳动密集型产品出口持续时间的抑制作用较初级产品、资本和技术密集型产品尤为显著，对发展中国家直接投资引致出口失败的危险率较发达国家高。此外，出口产品的多样性、初始贸易额、双边两国经济相似度、接壤国家对中国产品出口持续时间有正向影响，延长了中国产品出口持续时间，市场份额、内陆国家、东道国消费水平则对中国出口时间有负向影响。最后根据研究结果，本文提出延长中国产品出口持续时间的政策建议，即借力 OFDI 优化产业结构、出口产品多样化、提升企业核心竞争力、提高产品技术复杂度、针对不同国家的经济水平进行差异性投资策略。
英文摘要	With the rapid development of economic integration, China's participation in the global market has continued to increase, and the relationship between foreign direct investment (OFDI) and export trade has become closer. The status of a major foreign investment and cooperation country continues to consolidate, further deepening China’s economic and trade relations with other countries, but whether it will prolong the duration of China’s exports and alleviate the dilemma of short survival time for export enterprises and unstable export markets is a question worth exploring. This paper has a certain theoretical significance for the research on the impact of China's OFDI on the export duration, and can provide a certain reference for China to promote the optimization and upgrading of OFDI structure. Based on the analysis of the status quo of China's OFDI and export duration, this paper selects 18 countries with greater influence as the research objects. Using the HS6 quantile product data of the 18 host countries of China's OFDI from 2004 to 2017 in the CEPII-BACI database, using the nonparametric KM survival analysis method and the discrete-time Cloglog model, we first empirically study the impact of OFDI on the duration of China's product exports. , and further explore the heterogeneity of OFDI's impact on export duration from the perspectives of product category and host country's economic level. The study found that the median survival of Chinese product exports is only 1-3 years, and more than 70% of trade relations fail after 5 years, but the export sustainability has improved compared with the previous research results. The greater the stock of China's investment in the host country, the higher the risk rate of bilateral trade relationship failure, and the shortened export duration, showing a significant substitution relationship between the two. The inhibitory effect of OFDI on the export duration of labor-intensive products is more significant than that of capital- and technology-intensive products, and the risk of export failure caused by direct investment in developing countries is higher than in developed countries. In addition, the diversity of export products, initial trade volume, economic similarity between the two countries, and bordering countries have a positive impact on the duration of Chinese product exports, prolonging the duration of Chinese product exports, market share, landlocked countries, and host country consumption levels It will have a negative impact on China's export time. Finally, according to the research results, this paper puts forward policy suggestions for prolonging the duration of China's product exports, namely optimizing investment structure, diversifying export products, enhancing core competitiveness of enterprises, improving product quality, and conducting differentiated investment strategies according to the economic level of different countries.
学位类型	硕士
答辩日期	2022-05-29
学位授予地点	甘肃省兰州市
研究方向	国际贸易理论与政策
语种	中文
论文总页数	53
参考文献总数	62
馆藏号	0004114
保密级别	公开
中图分类号	F74/227
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/32066
专题	国际经济与贸易学院
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	汪倩倩. OFDI对中国产品出口持续时间的影响研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2022.

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