兰州财经大学机构知识库

21世纪发展至今，除全球经济发展突飞猛进外，科技的发展也进入到一个崭新阶段。在这一切进步的背后是以消耗大量资源为代价，而这代价终究转化成环境的负担。为了缓解环境的压力，本文以空气质量作为研究的切入点，致力于找到空气质量与社会协调发展的方向。

本次研究以在国内经济发展中具有重要战略地位的长三角地区做为研究范畴，围绕大气污染物浓度变化的影响机制，展开方法研究和实证分析。首先通过分析污染物的年度变化特征以及达标情况，结合污染物对空气质量的重要性排序，最终筛选出对空气质量影响更为明显的两种污染物：NO₂和PM_2.5。然后从大气中污染物的现状及产生源头这两个层面探讨空气质量的影响因素及影响机制。具体表现为分析气象因素对污染物的影响和经济因素对污染物的影响。

综合上述几部分的实证与思考，研究发现：（1）污染物在大气中的分布是有着一定的空间相关性，且存在明显的高高聚集和低低聚集。从Moran散点图中得知，长三角城市群中浙江地区的空气质量最好。（2）气象因素中的云量、降雨量、温度、风速和污染物浓度都呈现不同程度上的负相关。云量和风速对于气态污染物NO₂有着更为明显的变化。而对于固态污染物PM_2.5来说，降雨量是影响其浓度的重要因素。温度越高，小分子运动越快，故对于两种污染物都有着重要影响。（3）基于人口集聚对空气质量变化存在非线性的影响，将人口密度作为门槛变量，发现在人口规模、经济发展水平、交通、产业结构、技术水平、城市化等方面对大气中污染物的浓度有着正向影响力，而城市绿化建设方面则有着一定的抑制作用。最后，本文结合研究结论，从污染物的源头和污染物已在大气中存在这两种情况，提出空气质量和社会协调发展的相关建议。

本文主要贡献体现在基于实际的角度分析污染物已经产生和即将会产生这两种情况，具体表现在分析污染物与气象因素的关系和与经济因素的关系，更为全面的找到影响空气质量的因素，具有良好的现实意义。

Since the 21st century, in addition to the rapid development of global economy, the development of science and technology has entered a new stage. Behind all this progress is the cost of consuming a lot of resources, which eventually turns into the burden of the environment. In order to alleviate the pressure of the environment, this paper takes air quality as the starting point of research, and is committed to finding the direction of coordinated development of air quality and society.

In this study, the Yangtze River Delta region, which has an important strategic position in the domestic economic development, is taken as the research area, and the method research and empirical analysis are carried out around the impact mechanism of air pollutant concentration change. Firstly, by analyzing the annual change characteristics and compliance of pollutants, combined with the importance ranking of pollutants to air quality, two pollutants with more obvious impact on air quality are selected: NO₂ and PM_2.5. Then, the influencing factors and mechanism of air quality are discussed from the current situation and source of air pollutants. The specific performance is to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on pollutants and economic factors on pollutants.

The results show that: (1) The distribution of pollutants in the atmosphere has a certain spatial correlation, and there are obvious high concentration and low concentration. According to the Moran scatter diagram, the air quality in Zhejiang is the best among the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomerations. (2) Among the meteorological factors, cloud cover, rainfall, temperature, wind speed and pollutant concentration are negatively correlated. Cloud cover and wind speed have more obvious changes for NO₂. For the solid pollutant PM_2.5, rainfall is an important factor affecting its concentration. The higher the temperature, the faster the small molecules move, so it has an important impact on both pollutants. (3) Based on the non-linear influence of population agglomeration on air quality change, taking population density as a threshold variable, it is analyzed that population scale, economic development level, transportation, industrial structure, technology level and urbanization have positive influence on the concentration of air pollutants, and only urban greening construction has positive influence on the concentration of air pollutants It has a certain inhibitory effect. Finally, combined with the research conclusions, this paper puts forward some suggestions on the coordinated development of air quality and society from the source of pollutants and the existence of pollutants in the atmosphere.

The main contribution of this thesis is based on the actual point of view to analyze the two cases of pollutants have been produced and will be produced, specifically in the analysis of the relationship between pollutants and meteorological factors and economic factors, more comprehensive to find the factors affecting air quality, has good practical significance.