统计与数据科学学院知识库

在深入推进蓝天碧水保卫战，提升我国空气质量的进程中，完善大气防污治理体系，实施多部门、多区域联合治理，践行新绿色发展理念既可以满足人民日益增长美好环境的需要，也是实现高质量发展的重要途径。掌握我国空气质量分布特征，厘清大气污染联动机制，把握空气质量的影响因素，对建设生态友好型社会及大气污染联防联控机制具有积极的作用。

本文以我国空气质量指数为研究范畴，着眼于区域间大气污染物联动的分类研究及空气质量影响因素的分析。首先，对近年来我国空气质量整体状况与变化情况进行总体阐述，使用核密度估计法和空间描述性统计对空气质量指数进行可视化展示，系统的展示我国空气质量的时空变化特征。其次，对我国城市间存在大气污染联动的区域进行划分，运用动态时间规划算法衡量城市间空气质量指数趋势变化的差异，以该结果作为聚类的依据对城市进行分类；并用相关分析探讨气象因素与空气质量的关系。最后，分析我国空气质量的社会经济影响因素，利用混合线性模型，将前文的聚类结果作为随机效应引入模型，以消除自然因素对空气质量的影响，将社会经济因素作为固定效应引入模型来研究其对空气质量的影响。

利用上述研究方法，可得出：（1）我国空气质量逐年改善，污染范围在逐年缩小，空气质量指数表现出冬高夏低，春秋居中的变化趋势，并且区域间存在明显差异。（2）依据AQI变化趋势，我国可分为六大区域，分别为长江流域地区，京津冀周边地区，西部地区，东北地区，珠三角地区，新疆地区。（3）气温和降水与空气质量指数负相关，湿度与空气质量的相关系数因城市而异，风速与空气质量指数相关度不高。（4）人口密度、第二产业占比和城市居民生活用电的提升会提高空气污染的水平，而建成区绿地覆盖率、每万人拥有公共汽车数和人均GDP的提升能缓解空气污染的水平。

最后，根据我国城市空气污染的时空变化规律，自然条件和社会经济因素对空气质量的影响针对性的提出了改善空气质量的改善意见，旨在为我国对空气质量的协同治理提供借鉴。

In the process of advancing the defense of blue sky and clear water and improving the air quality of our country, improving the air pollution control system, implementing multi-departmental and multi-regional joint governance, and practicing the new green development concept can not only meet the people’s growing needs for a better environment, but also An important way to achieve high-quality development. Grasping the distribution characteristics of air quality in my country, clarifying the linkage mechanism of air pollution, and grasping the influencing factors of air quality have a positive effect on the construction of an eco-friendly society and the joint prevention and control mechanism of air pollution.

This article takes my country's air quality index as the research category, focusing on the classification study of the linkage of air pollutants between regions and the analysis of air quality influencing factors. First, the overall situation and changes of air quality in my country in recent years are summarized. The nuclear density estimation method and spatial descriptive statistics are used to visually display the air quality index, and systematically display the characteristics of the temporal and spatial changes of air quality in my country. Second, divide the areas where air pollution is linked between cities in my country, use dynamic time planning algorithms to measure the differences in air quality index trends between cities, and use the results as the basis for clustering to classify cities; and use correlation analysis to explore meteorological factors The relationship with air quality. Finally, analyze the socio-economic influencing factors of air quality in my country, use the mixed linear model, and introduce the clustering results of the previous article as a random effect into the model to eliminate the influence of natural factors on air quality, and introduce socio-economic factors as a fixed effect into the model to study Its impact on air quality.

Using the above research methods, it can be concluded that: (1) my country's air quality is improving year by year, and the pollution range is shrinking year by year. The air quality index shows a trend of high in winter and low in summer, and the trend of change in spring and autumn, and there are obvious differences between regions. (2) According to the changing trend of AQI, my country can be divided into six major regions, namely the Yangtze River Basin, the surrounding area of ​​Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the western region, the northeast region, the Pearl River Delta region, and the Xinjiang region. (3) Temperature and precipitation are negatively correlated with air quality index. The correlation coefficient between humidity and air quality varies from city to city, and the correlation between wind speed and air quality index is not high. (4) The increase in population density, the proportion of the secondary industry and the electricity consumption of urban residents will increase the level of air pollution, while the increase in the coverage of green space in built-up areas, the number of buses per 10,000 people, and per capita GDP can alleviate air pollution. Level.

Finally, according to the temporal and spatial changes of urban air pollution in my country, natural conditions and socio-economic factors affect air quality, suggestions for improving air quality are proposed, aiming to provide reference for the coordinated management of air quality in my country.