财税与公共管理学院知识库

2020年全球各国先后遭受新冠疫情的影响，世界经济遭遇重挫。基于我国处于常态化疫情防控时期以及对国际经济形势的判断，中共中央政治局常委会提出要加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环（以下简称“双循环”）相互促进的新发展格局。若发展以国内大循环为主体，农村地区的消费潜力不可忽视。近年来有关民生的话题频频冲上“热搜”榜单，财政用于民生方面的支出逐渐惠及到众多偏远地区的农村居民。河南省是我国的农业大省，农村人口众多，针对性研究财政民生支出对于河南省农村居民消费的影响，有利于国内大循环的构建。

本文先对国内外的研究成果进行分类总结，从理论层面探讨了具体的民生性支出项目对于农村居民消费的影响机制。然后采用河南省18个市的相关数据对财政民生支出和农村居民家庭生活消费的现状进行分析。接着在机理分析的基础上，利用河南省2010～2019年18个市的相关数据构建动态面板模型，从总量和结构这两个层面来分别验证河南省财政民生支出对于农村居民家庭生活消费是何种影响。

由实证结果可以发现：河南省民生支出对于农村居民家庭的生活消费有显著的促进作用。从具体的居民生活消费项目来分析，河南省财政民生支出的增加能够促进农村居民用于教育及文化娱乐的消费，同时还会减少用于食品方面的消费，但还会提高农村居民的储蓄。从不同的民生性支出项目来看，教育支出和住房保障支出是可以有效促进河南省农村居民家庭生活消费水平的。另外，虽然总体的财政民生支出对于农村居民家庭的生活消费支出结构的影响并不显著，但是教育支出和医疗卫生支出都能够显著地减少农村居民家庭用于食品方面的支出占比，即可以起到降低恩格尔系数的作用，但住房保障支出会促进农村居民家庭用于食品方面的消费。

最后，根据对河南省民生支出与农村居民消费的现状分析以及实证结果，从保持财政民生支出增长稳定，提高农村居民消费水平等方面提出具体的对策建议：保持民生支出增长稳定，完善财政民生支出结构，转变农村居民的消费习惯。

When countries around the world were affected by COVID-19 in 2020, the world economy has suffered considerable setbacks in the meanwhile. Considering that it is still in the epidemic prevention period, the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee urged the country to accelerate the establishment of a “dual circulation” development pattern in which the domestic economic cycle plays a leading role while international economic cycle remains its extension and supplement, because of the judgment of the international economic situation. If the development is based on the domestic economic cycle, the consumption potential of rural residents cannot be ignored. In recent years, topics related to people's livelihood have frequently on the list of " trending topics", and fiscal spending on people's livelihood has gradually benefited many rural residents in remote areas. It is conducive to constructing a domestic economic cycle that studying the impact of livelihood expenditure on rural residents' consumption in Henan Province.

I am sorting out relevant documents and analyzing the impact mechanism of different livelihood fiscal expenditure items on rural residents' consumption from the theoretical level in this article. To analyze the current situation of financial expenditure on people's livelihood and the living consumption of rural households by using the relevant data of 18 cities in Henan Province. Through mechanism analysis, this paper uses the data of 18 cities in Henan Province from 2010 to 2019 to build a dynamic panel model to verify the impact of the fiscal expenditure on the livelihood of rural residents' family living consumption in Henan Province from the perspectives of total amount and structure.

From the empirical results, it can be found that the government expenditure on people's livelihood has a practical promoting effect on the living consumption of rural households in Henan Province. From the specific household consumption items to analyzing, when financial expenditure on people's livelihood in Henan Province increases, it can promote the consumption of rural residents for education, culture, and entertainment, at the same time reduce the consumption for food. Meanwhile, it may also increase the savings of rural residents. From the perspective of specific livelihood expenditure items, education expenditure and housing security expenditure can effectively promote the living consumption of rural households in Henan Province. Besides, the overall fiscal spending on people’s livelihood has no significant impact on the consumption expenditure structure of rural households. Both education expenditure and medical and health expenditure can significantly reduce the proportion of rural household’s expenditure on food, which shows that it can reduce the Engel coefficient. Still, housing security expenditure will promote the consumption of food by rural households.

At the end of the thesis, according to the analysis and empirical results of the current situation of Henan’s livelihood expenditure and rural residents’ consumption, in order to maintain a stable growth of fiscal expenditures on people’s livelihood and improve the consumption level of rural residents, suggestions will be made from the following aspects: maintaining a stable growth of people’s livelihood expenditure, improving the structure of fiscal and people’s livelihood expenditure, and changing the consumption habits of rural residents.