统计与数据科学学院知识库

中国区域协调发展战略是化解新的社会主要矛盾的重大举措，也是实现“两个一百年”奋斗目标的重大部署。随着区域协调发展战略上升为国家战略，区域经济发展差距问题成为学术界研究的热点。改革开放以来，中国经济快速发展，但是区域经济发展不平衡问题也日益突出。市域是区域经济发展的重要空间单元，从地市级尺度分析中国的区域经济发展差距的时空演变特征及其影响因素，对于新时代背景下实现区域经济协调发展具有重要意义。

基于此，本文使用2000—2018年中国286个地级市的面板数据，采用变异系数和泰尔指数对经济发展差距的演变态势进行研究；然后运用探索性空间数据统计方法和马尔科夫模型揭示中国区域经济发展的空间格局差异及类型演变特征；在此基础上，构建影响因素指标和空间计量模型，深入分析中国区域经济发展差距的影响因素。研究结果表明：

（1）从时空演变来看，2000—2018年全国及四大区域的城市经济差距总体上趋于缩小，但四大区域经济发展差距大小呈现东部地区＜中部地区＜全国＜东北地区＜西部地区的局面；由Theil指数分解结果可知，中国区域经济发展差距主要表现为区域内差距即中国地级市内部差距颇为明显；（2）从空间格局演化来看，中国经济发展具有明显的空间集聚性，其主要为“高-高”型和“低-低”型集聚。其中“高-高”型集聚城市大多分布在东部沿海和东北部城市群地区，“低-低”型集聚主要分布在中西部地区，“高-低”型和“低-高”型城市较少且分布较为分散。（3）马尔科夫模型结果表明，中国城市经济发展存在“俱乐部趋同”现象。在经济发展过程中，多数城市保持原有的经济类型不改变。（4）空间计量模型结果表明，中国城市经济发展差距存在较强的空间溢出效应，即中国区域经济发展差距是由城市自身和周围影响因素共同作用形成的，各因素通过极化作用和涓滴效应对区域经济发展差距产生影响。具体来说，在分时期模型中，2000—2007年期间，物质资本、人力资本、人口密度、产业结构和信息化程度对区域经济差距的影响均不显著；而从业人数的增加和交通设施的完善均会拉大经济差距；在2008—2018年期间，资本投入要素的增加、交通基础设施的建设、产业结构的优化、信息化程度的提高和制度因素均有利于缩小区域经济差距。在分地区模型中，物质资本和人力资本对东部地区的经济差距具有显著负向影响，对其他地区影响不明显；从业人员数对东部、中部和东北地区的区域经济差距均不显著，对西部地区是抑制因素；交通基础设施建设对东部地区经济差距产生抑制作用，而不会缩小其他三个地区的经济差距；人口密度因素在四个地区的系数均不显著；制度要素对区域经济差距的影响均是负向的，但其对不同地区的影响程度是不同的。

在新时代背景下，基于本文所得到的研究结论，可以为我国缩小区域经济发展差距，制定区域经济协调发展政策提供一定的建议，同时也为我国进一步优化区域协调发展规划，推进经济高质量发展以及构建“双循环”新发展格局起到一定的指导作用。

China's regional coordinated development strategy is a major measure to resolve major new social contradictions, and it is also a major deployment for achieving the "two centenary" goals. As the regional coordinated development strategy has become a national strategy, the issue of regional economic development gaps has become a hot topic in academic research. Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed rapidly, but the problem of uneven regional economic development has become increasingly prominent. The city is an important spatial unit of regional economic development. Analyzing the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics of China's regional economic development gap and its influencing factors from the prefecture-level scale is of great significance for achieving coordinated regional economic development under the background of the new era.

Based on this, this paper uses panel data from 286 prefecture-level cities in China from 2000 to 2018, and uses the coefficient of variation and Theil index to study the evolution of the economic development gap; then uses exploratory spatial data statistical methods and Markov models to reveal The spatial pattern difference and type evolution characteristics of China's regional economic development; on this basis, influencing factor indicators and spatial measurement models are constructed to deeply analyze the influencing factors of China's regional economic development gap. Research indicates:

(1) From the perspective of temporal and spatial evolution, from 2000 to 2018, the overall urban economic gap between the country and the four major regions tends to shrink, but the gap in economic development among the four major regions shows that the eastern region . According to the decomposition results of Theil index, China’s regional economic development gap is mainly manifested in the regional gap, that is, the gap within China’s prefecture-level cities is quite obvious; (2) From the perspective of spatial pattern evolution, China’s economic development has obvious spatial agglomeration, which is mainly "high-high" type and "low-low" type agglomeration. Among them, the "high-high" agglomeration cities are mostly distributed in the eastern coastal and northeastern urban agglomeration areas, the "low-low" agglomerations are mainly distributed in the central and western regions, and the "high-low" and "low-high" cities are more concentrated. Few and scattered. (3) The results of the Markov model show that there is a phenomenon of "club convergence" in the economic development of Chinese cities. In the process of economic development, most cities maintain the original economic type unchanged. (4) The results of the spatial econometric model show that China’s urban economic development gap has a strong spatial spillover effect, that is, China’s regional economic development gap is formed by the combined effect of the city itself and surrounding factors, and each factor is through polarization and trickle effects. Have an impact on the gap in regional economic development. Specifically, in the period-by-period model, during the period 2000-2007, the effects of physical capital, human capital, population density, industrial structure, and degree of informatization on the regional economic gap were not significant; however, the increase in the number of employees and the increase in transportation facilities improvement will widen the economic gap; during 2008-2018, the increase in capital input factors, the construction of transportation infrastructure, the optimization of industrial structure, the improvement of informatization, and institutional factors are all conducive to narrowing the regional economic gap. In the sub-regional model, material capital and human capital have a significant negative impact on the economic gap in the eastern region, and have no obvious impact on other regions; the number of employees has no significant impact on the regional economic gap in the eastern, central, and northeastern regions, and has no significant impact on the western region. Regions are the restraining factor; the construction of transportation infrastructure has a restraining effect on the economic gap in the eastern region, but will not narrow the economic gap in the other three regions; the coefficient of population density in the four regions is not significant; the institutional factors have an effect on the regional economic gap The impacts are all negative, but the degree of impact on different regions is different.

In the context of the new era, based on the research conclusions obtained in this article, it can provide certain suggestions for my country to narrow the gap in regional economic development, formulate regional economic coordinated development policies, and also for my country to further optimize regional coordinated development planning and promote high-quality economic development. And it will play a certain guiding role in the construction of a new development pattern of "dual cycle".